NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/22

We’re starting hot out of the gate and have a nice NBA slate ahead of us after yet another small one yesterday.  Tackling a 10-gamer is a much more daunting task than having simply three games to choose from, so let me remind you of our important factors: game environment is king – this includes pace and poor defensive ratings, then followed by focusing on individual plays. It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

James Harden ($9,400 DK / $10,300 FD)

Coming off a 20/8/8 performance against the Bucks to start his 2021-2022 NBA campaign, The Beard walks into a cakewalk of a matchup versus a Philadelphia defense that will be without Ben Simmons for quite some time. Having a tandem of Tyrese Maxey and Seth Curry will be good for the 76ers on offense, but on the other side of the ball, they’re in trouble. Enter Harden, who has posted a 31.8/8.7/11.6 stat line in games without Kyrie Irving.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

In what can only be described as a monumental collapse for the Indiana Pacers in their season debut, where they blew a 16-point halftime lead to the Charlotte Hornets, Malcolm Brogdon looks poised to continue building on his impressive resume. With Caris LeVert and TJ Warren both still recovering from injuries, Indiana shortened their bench to an 8-man rotation, which can do wonders tonight against a Washington team that has consistently been in the top 5 in the league’s pace rankings, and bottom 5 in the league’s defensive ratings. Having the trio of Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and rookie Chris Duarte all log 32+ minutes in their season debuts, the Pacers core is in a great spot on tonight’s NBA slate.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($6,700 DK / $7,500 FD)

OKC’s rebuild continues to live on, but they now have solid pieces in Josh Giddey and Tre Mann, in addition to solidified NBA star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their current NBA season could not have started with a tougher matchup, facing the defensively sound, reigning Western Conference regular season Champions, the Utah Jazz. Tonight, SGA and company get a much easier matchup versus another rebuilding franchise, the Houston Rockets. Facing the likes of rookie Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. should pose no threat to OKC’s main threat, who not only led them in volume on opening night, but has for quite some time now, to the tune of a career high 23.7 points per game last season.

Honorable Mentions:

• LaMelo Ball ($7,700 DK / $8,200 FD)
• Lonzo Ball ($6,600 DK / $6,400 FD)
• Tyrese Maxey ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Donovan Mitchell and the rest of the Utah Jazz had a fairly quiet night against the Oklahoma City Thunder, where the star guard finished with a 16/3/4 scoring line on a mere 6-for-17 shooting. Make no mistake about it, there is no better opponent from an NBA DFS perspective than the Sacramento Kings, and we cannot afford to overreact to Donovan Mitchell’s performance in his first game of the year – this is a primary ball handler going up against a backcourt that allows over 48 FPPG to his player type, who just so happens to have ended the 2020-2021 season on a ridiculous run, averaging 30.6 PPG over his last 20 games.

Jaylen Brown ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD)

Nobody had a more impressive start to the new NBA season than Jaylen Brown, who carried the Celtics on his back behind his 46/9/6 scoring line in a double overtime loss to the Knicks. With the departure of Kemba Walker, the Celtics now need JB and Tatum to take yet another step in their game, solidifying themselves as top-end talent in the league if they want to do any damage whatsoever. With a firm 7-man rotation for rookie Head Coach Ime Udoka, JB’s volume will be tough to contend with on any given NBA slate; he’s coming off career highs in seemingly every statistical category, where he averaged 24.7/6/3.4 across 34.5 minutes for the C’s last year.

Honorable Mentions

• Bradley Beal ($9,200 DK / $9,400 FD)
• Chris Duarte ($6,000 DK / $5,300 FD)
• Value Spot

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($9,300 DK / $10,800 FD)

Anytime we have the luxury of playing KD at such a ridiculous price, we simply have to consider it, if not lock him in. While both he and Harden will carry the load on offensive night-in and night-out for the Nets, KD’s 31.9 PPG to go along with 6.9 rebounds and 6.3 assists while Kyrie Irving is on the sidelines is no joke. He’s arguably the best offensive player in the NBA and this price simply makes no sense.

Brandon Ingram ($7,500 DK / $8,300 FD)

Flying under the radar on the last NBA slate, Brandon Ingram picked up right where he left off last season, shouldering the load for a Pelicans team in the absence of Zion Williamson. Carrying the Pelicans for 36 minutes of action, Ingram sported a 35.2% usage rate en route to a 25/7/6 stat line with ridiculous volume, taking 26 shots. In a matchup against the Bulls, Ingram is the only chance the Pelicans have to not get embarrassed for a second straight outing. 

Michael Porter Jr. ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD)

The volume was certainly concerning for MPJ’s first outing of the new NBA season; his 16.6% usage rate was considerably low alongside a 15/6/5 stat line while only taking 10 field goal attempts, considering Jamal Murray remains out for the Denver Nuggets. Nonetheless, MPJ remains the #2 option in Denver behind the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, and a matchup versus the Spurs, who allow over 42 FPPG to wings, is the right time to buy low.

Honorable Mentions:

• Jayson Tatum ($8,800 DK / $9,800 FD)
• Kyle Kuzma ($5,700 DK / $5,600 FD)
• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($5,500 DK / $5,100 FD)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,000 DK / $9,700 FD)

An article without Domantas Sabonis is simply incomplete. For those that are unfamiliar with the Win Daily special, Domantas Sabonis is one of the most unappreciated stars of today’s NBA, and we play him every single night. Starting the season off with a 33/15/2 stat line on 68.4% shooting is no joke, especially considering he sported a 28.1% usage rate through 39 minutes of action. It’s a dream matchup for the big, and the sky truly is the limit for him as long as the Wizards can keep pace.

Anthony Davis ($8,800 DK / $10,200 FD)

Prime Anthony Davis came out to play for the Lakers in their season debut versus the Warriors, giving us a vintage performance to the tune of 33 points and 11 rebounds in 39 minutes. The Lakers issue at the center position remains, leaving AD to log plenty of time at the ‘5’ with a 30% usage rate to begin the year, and now faces a Phoenix Suns team that gave up 45 PPG in the paint last season.

Julius Randle ($8,500 DK / $9,500 FD)

Despite playing at a much slower pace than what we usually target for our NBA lineups, the Knicks offer a ton of upside considering Coach Thibs runs his starters into the ground; he always has done this, and always will. Enter Julius Randle, who led his team with a 29.2% usage rate last season and sported a 34.8% usage rate in is team’s debut, to the tune of a 35/8/9 near triple-double. Facing an Orlando Magic team that struggles mightily versus point forwards with Mo Bamba and Wendall Carter Jr. being reluctant to leave the paint, Randle is in a great spot to replicate his success over the past year despite the slow pace to this game.

Honorable Mentions:

• Tobias Harris ($7,200 DK / $7,600 FD)
• Evan Mobley ($6,900 DK / $6,100 FD)
• OG Anunoby ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD)

Centers

Joel Embiid ($10,000 DK / $10,700 FD)

If you’re going with three studs on tonight’s NBA slate, depending on how much value is available to us, my choice at the time of writing would be Harden/KD with Embiid. While he only saw 25 minutes in their first game of the year, the Philadelphia bench took over versus a weak New Orleans squad that was without Zion Williamson. This won’t be the case in a battle of two Eastern Conference heavyweights, where Embiid will be leaned upon heavily versus a Brooklyn frontcourt that allowed 48 points in the paint per game last season, and made no offseason moved to adjust.

Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DK / $8,200 FD)

The French big man’s volume will never match up to that of an Embiid, Jokic, or Towns, but his efficiency certainly does. Taking a mere nine shots in Utah’s season opener, Gobert dropped 16/19 on 6-for-9 shooting. In a matchup versus a Sacramento Kings defense that ranks 26th in the NBA against true opposing centers, Gobert will have his way with Richaun Holmes on the glass and be relied upon to clean everything up under the basket on both ends of the floor tonight.

Nikola Vucevic ($7,800 DK / $8,700 FD)

I’d be lying if I said I was unsure of Vucevic’s volume in a new-look Chicago Bulls offense with so many isolation (ISO) players around him. Despite Lonzo Ball’s ability to move the ball well, both Lavine and DeRozan pose a threat to Vucevic’s volume with their slashing and mid-range playstyles, respectively, but it was Vucevic who led the team with a 29.4% usage rate in their season opening, dropping 15/15 on an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, going 7-for-21, while also leading the Bulls in field goal attempts. Facing a Pelicans team that will be without Zion Williamson is a great spot for Vuc, while also no longer having to deal with Steven Adams, who is now in Memphis, and instead gets a poor defender in Jonas Valanciunas.

Honorable Mentions

• Nikola Jokic ($10,200 DK / $11,100 FD)
• Christian Wood ($7,100 DK / $8,100 FD)
• Robert Williams ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

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