Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10.20
Ghost and I will be trading off writing the article on the normal slates, but the format is going to remain the same regardless of who writes. Routines are important and when it’s a sport like NBA and decisions have to be made in a hurry, we want the room comfortable with the content we’re putting out. Without any further noise, let’s dive into this 11 game slate for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10.20 to find our paths to green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,100/$10,000)
We all love a late-night hammer and even though there are higher priorities with expensive players at other positions, it should be Dame Time very early in the season. This game features the highest O/U of the night and these teams were 29th and 30th in defensive rating last year. The pace wasn’t special for either squad but the utter lack of defense makes up for that. Lillard featured a 31.1% usage rate, a 1.34 FPPM, and the Kings allowed the sixth-highest field goal percentage from deep last year. This has all the makings of a big game from Lillard.
Ja Morant ($9,100/$8,200)
Morant is a little more appealing on FD tonight but I expect the third-year player to take a giant leap this year. Jonas Valanciunas is gone and Dillon Brooks is out tonight. Without those players last season, Morant had a 34.8% usage rate and a 1.39 FPPM. He also was fifth in drives per game and Cleveland can be had on the interior as they gave up over 40 real points in the paint last year. For those new to NBA DFS, we love attacking Collin Sexton’s defense, and Ja should eat him alive.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500/$7,300)
It may be the first game of the year for the Pacer but they are still down T.J. Warren (who missed all of last season) and Caris LeVert will be out as well. The O/U is over 220 points and when the pacers were without those two players last year, it was the Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis show. Brogdon is fresh off a contract extension and led the Pacers in usage rate at 27.5% and he had a 1.11 FPPM. This game can go up and down in a hurry and Brogdon is an extremely appealing option.
Also Consider:
Fred VanVleet
De’Aaron Fox
Spencer Dinwiddie
Tyrese Maxey
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,500/$9,600)
Russell Westbrook is kicking it in Los Angeles, leaving Beal as the very clear number one option in the offense. He’s also missing Rui Hachimura and in that split last year, Beal carried a 41.4% usage rate and a 1.49 FPPM. I will grant you that the sample didn’t include Spencer Dinwiddie so the usage will come down a little bit, but we know Beal is going to shoot the ball a ton and is one of the best scorers in the league. There is always a chance at a 40 real point effort when you play Beal and the Raptors were just average in defensive rating last year. They are also missing pieces of their own, making the matchup slightly easier.
Devin Booker ($8,200/$8,100)
It’s not the favorite price of the night but when a player has a 32.7% usage rate to lead the team, he has to be in play to some extent. Denver was top 12 in defensive rating but will still have a tough time dealing with Booker in this one. The young guard had a 20% assist rate and a 58.6% true shooting rate last season and this game is third in O/U for the evening.
Devonte’ Graham ($6,000)
This is mostly a FanDuel play since he is only PG eligible on DK and we need two. Graham should be starting for the Pelicans tonight at point guard and the Pelicans lineup is totally different than last year. They brought in JoVal, they are missing Zion, Lonzo Ball is in Chicago, and the backcourt is now Graham and Nickell Alexander-Walker. Ball’s role last year was to distribute and hit some triples and even in a down year, Graham still shot over 37% from beyond the arc. Brandon Ingram can’t do all the scoring himself and if Graham takes Ball’s 21.7% usage and his 1.01 FPPM, we’d be just fine.
Also Consider:
Donovan Mitchell
Anthony Edwards
Eric Gordon
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($7,700/$8,100)
I’m not sure we have much of a choice but to at least consider exposure to Ingram tonight. He sat right at a 31.7% usage rate and a 1.25 FPPM without just Zion last season. It’s also a huge bonus for Ingram that Philly will be missing Ben Simmons, who is their best defender and likely would have seen Ingram. The Sixers are still a good defensive team but from an individual matchup perspective, that’s a significant upgrade for Ingram.
Norman Powell ($5,700/$6,800)
He is very expensive on FD but much more palatable on DK. We want some exposure to this game since it projects to be so chock full of fantasy goodness and Powell should have a more stable role now. Carmelo Anthony departed to LA and Powell had a 21% usage rate and a 0.86 FPPM. He’s going to be relied upon as a scorer after Lillard and C.J. McCollum and the Kings don’t defend well at all. I mentioned how low the Kings ranked in field goal percentage allowed from three and Powell shot 41% from deep while playing over 32 minutes per contest.
Scottie Barnes ($3,400/$5,100)
Normally we won’t dip this low (although technically he is above the threshold on FD) but this pricing is egregious for the rookie. Pascal Siakam is out and Barnes is slated to jump right into the starting lineup, and he will contribute in just about every category for fantasy. On top of that, the matchup against Washington, who played at the fastest pace in the league last year and sat in the bottom 10 in defensive rating. He’s playable on either site, but DK is crazy. Also, I’m not letting the first large article of the year NOT include Ghost’s guy.
Also Consider:
Gordon Hayward
R.J. Barrett
Will Barton
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,800/$9,700)
Speaking of Ghost’s Guys, say hello to one of the best big men in the league in Sabonis. Much like we loved Brogdon, Sabonis was at a 26.6% usage rate and a 1.32 FPPM, the latter of which led the team. The Hornets were in the bottom 12 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint while Sabonis ranked fourth in rebounding chances, seventh in paint touches, and eighth in paint points. In my eyes, he’s one of the better options when we’re spending up on this slate and Sabonis has an outside shot for a triple-double.
Tobias Harris ($7,600/$7,200)
The big-name Sixers are likely to be very popular and Harris stands to be super chalky on FD. Ben Simmons is suspended from the team right now and that has meant big things for his teammates in the past. For Harris last season, that meant that he spiked to a 27.4% usage rate and a 1.23 FPPM. The salary does not match the upside and the Pelicans are going to have a tough time matching up with him on the individual level.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,900) on DK or Khem Birch ($5,300) on FD
If you’re on DK, I really love JJJ and even though his fouls can be an issue, taking JoVal and Dillon Brooks off the floor was a big boom for Jackson. We have to note that the sample is just 92 minutes but in said sample, the usage was 31.8% and the FPPM was 1.35. Memphis played at the eighth-fastest pace last year and Cleveland was in the bottom five in defensive rating. Memphis is relying on Jackson to take a step forward, part of the reason they gave him a contract extension recently.
If you’re an FD player, Birch is more appealing. The Raptors have him as their starting center right now and they got destroyed in the paint, ranking 29th in points given up and 23rd in rebounds surrendered. Toronto was 28th in rebounds last season while Washington was eighth so Birch should help in that department.
Also Consider:
Jayson Tatum (much more appealing if Jaylen Brown has to sit)
Wendell Carter
Kyle Kuzma (if starting)
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,600/$11,000)
Biid is wildly expensive but it’s beyond deserved. Without Simmons, Embiid breaks the chart as far as metrics go. His usage is over 42% and the FPPM is just under 2.00. He took the most free throws per game last year, New Orleans is missing Zion, and they were 13th in paint points allowed last year. Embiid also led the league in post-ups last year and the Pelicans were ninth in points per possession allowed. We can’t say much more about how great of a spot this is for Embiid.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700/$10,800)
Most of the attention will be focused on Embiid but that makes KAT a fascinating GPP play. Even with Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell flanking him, Towns still had a 29.4% usage rate and a 1.41 FPPM. Towns sat fifth in post-ups per game last year and the Rockets tied for allowing the most points per game off the play type. You’re not likely to get KAT under $10,000 on DK very often this season and these two teams played in the top six in pace last year along with sitting in the bottom-four in defensive rating. On any other night, Towns would be far more popular.
Robert Williams ($5,100/$6,300)
With the news that Al Horford will miss the game because of Covid protocols, Williams has a much safer role for this game. The usage rate won’t be anything great but he’s a FPPM machine at 1.27 and the price is very cheap. Williams had 6.6 paint touches last season and that was in a time split with Tristan Thompson and others. New York only allowed the second-fewest points in the paint but they were just average in rebounds allowed. Williams had a 1.30 point per possession mark on putbacks and Williams will be sorely needed to deal with the size the Knicks can throw out there.
Also Consider:
Nikola Jokic
Jusuf Nurkic
Mitchell Robinson
Thank you for reading NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
