Allan Fabrykant NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15
We get nine games tonight but I’ll immediately put a word of caution here – of the 18 teams in action tonight, nine of them played last night which will likely throw a major wrench into this slate. Things will almost certainly be a moving target through the day and up to lock, so just be aware. Let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/15 and start highlighting paths to green and be ready to adjust as needed!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Games To Target
Trail Blazers at Wizards
Blazers – It’s a rare night for me but Jusuf Nurkic is a strong target despite carrying a salary of nearly $8,000. The Blazers are still missing Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Norman Powell which means Nurkic has a 24.3% usage rate and 1.29 points per minute. That latter mark leads the team and the 29% assist rate is extremely high as well. Washington sitting in the bottom 10 in points and rebounds allowed in the paint is a big bump for him, even though he hasn’t been the heaviest paint player in the league.
The decisions start to come in with a player like Anfernee Simons, who is finally priced up and likely has very little ceiling left at his salary. I’m more likely to go towards Nassir Little or Ben McLemore, as both players have at least 0.78 points per minute and will be called upon to play a ton of minutes tonight.
Wizards – We talked last time about Spencer Dinwiddie playing his first back-to-back and it resulted in a very mediocre fantasy game. Now that he’s more on a normal schedule and facing the team that has the worst defensive rating in basketball, I’d play him ahead of Simons about 90 times out of 100. Bradley Beal is out and Dinwiddie has 1.16 fantasy points per minute, a 26% usage rate, and a 36.6% assist rate. Kyle Kuzma has shown upside and does have 1.14 fantasy points per minute, but the salary can be tough to swallow. You want 50 DraftKings points and the path for Kuzma to get there is narrow, even in the matchup.
Bulls at Celtics
Bulls – This is a projection but last night saw Zach LaVine hurt his knee four minutes into the game. He fouled, left the game, and then was ruled out shortly after so the assumption would have to be that he doesn’t suit up tonight. He also is scheduled for an MRI today so the writing is on the wall, although the Bulls do think he dodged a serious injury.
The chalkiest player on the slate would potentially be DeMar DeRozan because, without LaVine and Alex Caruso on the floor, DDR has a 41.4% usage rate and 1.32 points per minute with a true shooting of just 51.7%. For context, his seasonal rate is 57.8% and he’s priced as LaVine will be active. On the less expensive side, Lonzo Ball and Nikola Vucevic (under $9,000 is still a strong salary)both have usages of 16.9% and 29% respectively and both are over 1.02 points per minute. Boston is 21st in rebounds allowed in the paint, which helps Vuc quite a bit.
Celtics – As of now, the Celtics are healthy but the duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is quite cheap as both are under $9,500. Tatum is always my favorite when picking and holds a lead in the fantasy points per minute and usage. They would be my only two targets as a run-back unless someone sits out (possibly Al Horford but Robert Williams isn’t coming cheap).
Pelicans at Nets
Pelicans – This is quite the spot for Jonas Valanciunas because the Nets have zero interior presence without LaMarcus Aldridge and My Name Is Jonas has 9.3 paint touches per game and 9.5 points in the paint per game, both inside the top 10 in the league. He’s also one of just four players that have more than 20 rebound chances per game and he’s barely over $8,000. Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart can be considered, but are getting up there in salary. JoVal is only $1,300 more than Hart and that’s an easy pick for me.
Nets – There will be no Kyrie Irving so it’s way easier to play Kevin Durant or James Harden. The latter has been coming out of his funk, getting to the line (up to third in FTA across the league), and leading the league in points scored in isolation. The Pelicans are in the bottom eight in points per possession against that play type so I give him a slight lean since we’ve been playing guards against Pelicans all year long. In GPP-only, Patty Mills has fallen to a salary that you can throw him in as a cheap guard. The Pelicans allow the second-highest FG% from 3-point distance and Mills is shooting 42.1%, the highest among any player in the top-25 in 3-point attempts.
Note – Instead of teams to monitor in the article, we’ll just have to pay attention to the injury reports with all the back-to-backs tonight.
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