DFSGhost 
This. Is. March. All eyes with turn to the madness in college basketball as we near my favorite event in sports, but there is still plenty of action to be had in the NBA as well. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (-8.5)
While most ignored this game on yesterday’s NBA slate until Fred VanVleet was eventually ruled out with the predicted knee soreness, we were all over it from the beginning. I see no reason to dodge it now on the second half of a back-to-back, but I do believe VanVleet makes his return to the lineup tonight, barring any setbacks at morning shootaround. Nonetheless, the trio of VanVleet/Siakam/Barnes remain underpriced on both sites tonight, with the latter two flashing their defensive upside versus a turnover prone Brooklyn offense that can be exposed in transition.
Similarly to what I preached on yesterday’s NBA slate, I am not forcing a run back with my Toronto exposure. In the end, it worked out beautifully, as the Nets simply could not keep up in a 36-point losing effort. However, the trio of Bruce Brown, Cam Thomas, and Patty Mills would be my choices, if going there. Specifically, Mills is somewhat that can be ice cold from the field and has a low floor when it comes to DFS production, but if you want to beat Toronto’s zone, it’s with perimeter shooting. The Nets shot a disastrous 38% from the field last night, including 34% from deep, where Mills went 1-8 from the field and 1-6 from deep, but if he heats up, it could lead to him being a key factor on this slate.
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets (+7)
The third meeting between these two teams in as many days should be no different from the previous two: fast, turnovers, little-to-no defense. It’s exactly what we want in NBA DFS, and this game will have plenty of it.
With Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Norman Powell all out for the Clippers, there are a ton of touches to go around on offense. While we are potentially looking at 8-9 players getting 15+ minutes for the Clippers tonight, their ceilings remain low, but it’s all about getting exposure to the right ones: Reggie Jackson leads the charge on offense with a 31% usage rate in the absence of George, Leonard, and Powell, but I can’t stomach an $8,200 tag for him; the duo of Terance Mann and Luke Kennard are streaky, but I give them the edge over veterans like Batum and Covington.
On the Rockets side of the ball, the status of Kevin Porter Jr. remains key to our Houston exposure. Should he be in, he’s a great fit at an affordable tag with a 23.5% usage rate this season. Should he be ruled out, one of, if not the highest rostered player on this NBA slate will be none other than Dennis Schroder, who has a 23.1% usage rate in three starts for the Rockets this season, where he’s posted a 14.3/5.7/9.3 scoring line on 33.3% shooting. Elsewhere, despite his struggles versus the Clippers this season, Christian Wood is in a good spot versus an LA team that ranks 25th in points allowed in the paint per game.
Honorable Mentions:
- Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+1)
- Dallas Mavericks @ LA Lakers (+5.5)
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
