Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27
We have another five games tonight and these kinds of slates tend to be a favorite because it is much harder to get overwhelmed with options. It’s easier to be focused and not feel like you’re missing anyone but there are some very strong game environments again tonight. We’ve got plenty of studs to pick from in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 02/27 so let’s get right to work to find out paths!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Clippers at Rockets
Clippers – If the last Rockets game was any indication, the Clips will very likely be chalky and I’m more than willing to run with the field on that for most guys. These teams played each other right before the break and Reggie Jackson feels expensive to me, but he does lead the team with a 29.9% usage rate without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. He’s absolutely in play but it could be more cash and possibly risk fading him in GPP. My main two players would be Terrance Mann and Luke Kennard. Mann is in my sights since he can do a little bit of everything as far as scoring, assists, and rebounds and he could even sneak in a double-double like last game. As of Kennard, the salary is getting toward the upper limit but the Rockets are 10th in frequency allowed from deep and Kennard is now over 45% from beyond the arc this year. Both Marcus Morris and Ivica Zubac are on the fringes as well as Zubac should be needed to deal with the size of Christian Wood and Alperen Sengun.
Rockets – The interest in the Rockets are going to be dictated by the status of Kevin Porter Jr. as he is questionable for tonight’s game. If he’s out, that gives a nice bump to Jalen Green and Dennis Schroeder who will share a lot of the work in the backcourt. In addition, Wood sees a usage rate bump of 2% and he climbs up to 26.1% so he would be in play as well. Wood is someone I struggle with when he’s over $8,000 since this is a player that doesn’t even average 38 DK points but he does have a ceiling, so perhaps this is a GPP-only play. If Porter is active, he and Green would be my favorites as they can pick on the Clippers perimeter defense a little bit. Both teams are in the top half of the league as far as pace and we all know what the Rockets bring to the table for the game environment.
Pistons at Hornets
Pistons – Typically the Pistons aren’t much of a thought but that changes pretty quickly when they face the Hornets. Charlotte is basically a carbon copy in defensive rating and pace as the Rockets are and they tend to pull big games out of their opponents. Cade Cunningham is very affordable for his ceiling although he’s a very volatile player. The true shooting for the season is just 48.8% but his usage is 27%, exactly what we’re looking for against the Hornets. His assist rate also leads the team at 27.2% so there is upside all around but I would be hesitant to play him in cash games on DK. Isaiah Stewart is very cheap and it should be noted he scored 36 DK against these Hornets earlier in the month, although that’s not the main reason you play him. Stewart is 14th in paint touches this season and Charlotte is still 29th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint on the year. I’m going to be tempted by Jerami Grant but he’s under 1.00 FPPM at this juncture of the season.
Hornets – You might think that this is a clash of sales but Detroit is 12th in pace, which could lead to a major up-and-down game here. The good news is both teams are in the bottom eight in defensive rating as well so there is plenty to like from the Charlotte side. Montrezl Harrell is the new hotness as it were and his salary is getting up there but he can touch 40 DK in a hurry. Detroit is only 10th in points allowed in the paint but they are 21st in rebounds and Trez leads the league in points scored from putbacks. If Trez is too rich, Mason Plumlee could be a cheaper substitute but has his own risks as well. Finally, LaMelo Ball has one of the highest ceilings on the slate but he also is one of the harder players to pin down on any given night. His minutes have been more secure since the Hornets traded Ish Smith so that does help and he’s driving to the hoop 14.2 times per game.
Honorable Mention – Pelicans at Lakers
Teams To Monitor
Nuggets – It’s a back-to-back for Nikola Jokić but he sees virtually no change in his stats in his eight games on zero days rest. There is nobody on the interior for the Trail Blazers that should give Jokic any kind of resistance.
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