DFSGhost 
After the madness that was the NBA Trade Deadline yesterday, we’re looking at some rotations with fresh looks while others await to make their debuts with their new teams. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks (-8)
With the Spurs surprisingly traded Derrick White at the deadline, if you weren’t all in on Dejounte Murray beforehand, you will be now. In his sixth season as a pro, Murray has been taking the NBA by storm, sporting a 26.6% usage rate on the year and having posted a 19.5/8.4/9.2 scoring line on 45.3% shooting. I constantly preach to play primary ball handlers versus the Atlanta Hawks, and most notably, against Trae Young, who has an abysmal 116.7 net defensive rating. Not only do the Hawks rank 27th in the NBA in defensive rating as a team, but they also give up the second-most assists per game to opposing primary ball handlers.
On the flip side of this game, you can double down with two of the NBA’s best point guards by playing Trae Young, but I’ll never attack Murrray’s elite defense. Thus, if you want to get a piece of the Hawks offense, look to the wings in De’Andre Hunter and/or Kevin Huerter, while John Collins, who is my preferred target in Young’s pick-and-roll offense, makes for an elite play: Collins leads the NBA as the roll man with 1.47 points per possession (PPP) while the Spurs rank 24th in pick-and-roll defense to opposing roll men, allowing 1.16 PPP.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Chicago Bulls (-4.5)
This contest is far and away the best game environment in my model and I will have at least one, if not multiple pieces from it. The Timberwolves have a whopping six rotation players tagged as questionable for this one, including Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell, meaning we’ll monitor it throughout the day before making our decision. Should one of the two be out, Karl-Anthony Towns catapults in the priority list for tonight’s NBA slate, while a potential absence of someone like Patrick Beverley (ankle) could get us more value off the bench.
I will have at least one of the Bulls’ Big 3 in my NBA lineups tonight, but we also need confirmation on the status of Ayo Dosunmu (concussion) before deciding, since he was acting as the primary ball handler in the absence of Lonzo Ball, and this offense shifts considerably with him off the court and Coby White on it. Ultimately, should Dosunmu be ruled out, I’d consider both Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan, but the latter grades out ridiculously well for me tonight, and there’s no surprise to why: DeRozan comes into tonight’s contest with 30+ points in his last four games, sporting an absurd 40.1% usage rate while averaging 37.5/6/5.5. With the Timberwolves ranking in the bottom 10 in points per game allowed, rebounds per game allowed, and assists per game allowed to combo wings, DeRozan is my guy tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
- Charlotte Hornets (high rostered for cash games)
- Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers (+7)
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
