Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30
We’re back in action with just five games tonight and the NBA kept the main slate small since it is NFL Championship Sunday. There is only one team on a back-to-back tonight but we already have major value from one team in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/30 so let’s go to work!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Spurs at Suns
Spurs – San Antonio gives us the main value of the slate as the trio of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl are all out. The good news is we know who is out but the bad news is this game is the last one on the slate and the starting lineup is far from set in stone. The names that we need to know and likely chase are Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Lonnie Walker, and Drew Eubanks at least. Jones especially will be needed at point guard and he is the bare minimum on DraftKings so it will be hard to really kill the lineup at that salary. Walker (and Devin Vassell) are likely to be the main scoring options and they’ve been around the same minutes a lot lately with Vassell holding a slight edge. All of these players have at least 0.82 points per minute when the main trio is off the floor, so we’ll get a clearer view of the chalk and pivots later in the day.
Suns – We always preach to not calculate blowouts but this is a game where it might be an exception. Phoenix has the best record in the league and it’s hard to see how the Spurs keep it close but maybe the stars get enough work in. On DraftKings at least, I will not pay this salary for Devin Booker and the result of the last game is exactly why. He scored 29 raw points and didn’t hit 50 DK in part because Chris Paul went for a triple-double. With the expense of both guys, they will likely be GPP-only while Cam Johnson is going to be popular again if Jae Crowder remains out. Both Crowder and Deandre Ayton are questionable so we need news to see where the Phoenix exposure comes from.
Jazz at Timberwolves
Jazz – Utah is still short Rudy Gobert at a minimum while Donovan Mitchell is questionable with his concussion. Hassan Whiteside struggled with fouls last game and that kept his upside well in check. I don’t love him on this slate, but the upside is always there with 1.20 points per minute if he can manage to stick on the floor. He’s not going to be a primary target and if Mitchell plays, everyone else for Utah is just way too expensive.
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell is questionable again and when a player leaves one game early and then doesn’t play the next, I lean towards he’s out until he gets confirmed active. If that’s the case, Anthony Edwards is going to be an appealing option along with Karl-Anthony Towns. Both players have a usage rate of 27.7% and 1.27 FPPM and the Jazz defense is worse off without Gobert down low. If KAT could get Whiteside into foul trouble, he would have little resistance but he’s not always that style of player.
Studs To Target
With a player like Tre Jones being an option, we need to go back to the top of the pricing grid with one of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, or Luka Doncic. The latter is almost surely going to be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight as KP left very early last night and I can’t imagine the Mavericks pushing KP in a back-to-back against the Orlando Magic. Normally, this would be a time to point out that Luka doesn’t have a massive jump in his usage or FPPM but there is a key factor in Luka’s favor – the Mavericks are also missing Tim Hardaway Jr. Luka has a 40.9% usage and 1.66 FPPM over 284 minutes while Jalen Brunson is at 0.99 FPPM. They do need some scorers down KP and THJ so both men are firmly on the radar.
The decision would be a lot easier if both Giannis and Jokic weren’t facing off against each other. The status of Will Barton is a big deal here because if he’s off the court, the 1.89 FPPM for Jokic is the best on the slate. Of course, he is the most expensive but Jones unlocks it all. Milwaukee is sixth in points allowed in the paint but Jokic does so much more than that and he’s going to make Giannis work defensively tonight. On the offensive end, Giannis should have a clear path to the basket because he’s co-leading the league in FTA and Jokic can simply not afford foul trouble or this game is over fast. Denver is 10th in points in the paint but I think that number goes down tonight and Giannis is one of the few men who can battle on the glass with Jokic all night. As things stand, I side with Giannis out of the three but that could change tomorrow.
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