Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/23
We’re back with nine games tonight and lock is a bit earlier than normal at 6:00 p.m. One of the biggest issues tonight is the Utah Jazz hold the keys to the slate but are the least game to lock, which could be problematic. We’ll see how that part of the day goes and let’s get into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 01/23 to find our paths to green!
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Jazz at Warriors
Jazz – As I mentioned, we have some serious question marks surrounding this Utah squad. Donovan Mitchell remains out but now both Bojan Bogdanovic, Hassan Whiteside, and Rudy Gobert are questionable. The main player here is still Jordan Clarkson but we’ll need to see how the day breaks before deciding anything else. Joe Ingles is in play regardless but only looks better and better the more players that get ruled out. The Golden State defensive rating drops outside of the top 10 without Draymond Green and the Jazz drop significantly without Gobert as well.
Warriors – If I play a Warrior tonight, it’s likely going to be Klay Thompson. His salary still allows for a ceiling even in limited minutes and he’s not going 0-7 from deep like last game very often. Thompson has a 33.1% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute so far through six games with just a 48.4% true shooting rate. Both teams are in the top half of the league in pace this year and Klay can get hot in a hurry.
Nets at Timberwolves
Nets – Since Brooklyn is still on the road, Kyrie Irving is still an option and is now back under $9,500. This game has the highest total when the lines opened at 238 and that could be the highest we’ve seen this season. Kyrie is still not the most comfortable price so I would view him as GPP-only. He could score quite a bit though as 26% of his shot attempts come within 10 feet of the basket and the Wolves are 16th in points in the paint. Kyrie is one of the most talented finishers in the league and has a 55 DK point upside. James Harden is always in play and he’s slashing to the basket the 10th most times per game in the league and is back to racking up FTA. Even LaMarcus Aldridge is in play with a strong pace projected and average paint defense (at best). Brooklyn in theory needs him on the floor to combat the size of the Wolves down low but the minutes are always volatile for any Net that is not one of the big three.
Wolves – Karl-Anthony Towns is going to mess with me all day, at least on DraftKings. It’s tough to remember a time when KAT has been $9,300 but there is a reason for that and that is the ceiling is limited when he’s sharing the floor with Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell. All three are very talented but they haven’t totally meshed into a good team to this point and are still mostly three individuals. All three players have a usage over 26% and KAT does lead in points per minute at 1.30 but DLo leads in assist rate at 32.2%. Any one of these three can excel in this game but they are all risky. I do prefer KAT due to the matchup against LMA and/or the combo of Day’Ron Sharpe and Nic Claxton. Sharpe especially has had foul issues and KAT is 18th in FTA per game.
Hawks at Hornets
Hawks – This game is sitting at 236 and I feel like by the time tip is here, it could take the lead and get closer to 240. Regardless, my initial lean for the build tonight is Jazz value (potentially) and try and focus on these two games. If we’re spending up, might well be that dude for me tonight. Bogdan Bogdanovic has already been ruled out and Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari are questionable. With Cam Reddish in New York, Young shoulders it all, and both teams are bottom-five in defensive rating and Charlotte is third in pace. He’s seventh in touches per game and third in time in possession, perfect for this game. Young is one of the premier expensive options and Clint Capela could be underpriced if he gets his full run. Let’s see who’s active before deciding any other targets for the Hawks, with John Collins sliding in as a strong option if Capela is limited.
Hornets – I know that the minutes can be way too volatile for LaMelo Ball because the Hornets don’t like playing their best player, but $8,200 on DraftKings is just too cheap to not take chances on. He’s not even the priciest player on the team at this point (Miles Bridges) and he still has 1.37 fantasy points per minute and a 27.4% usage rate. What is really scary for Atlanta is they are tied for the fourth-worst points per possession allowed to spot-up shooters. The Hornets have three of the top 12 in points scored per game as spot-up shooters (Terry Rozier, Bridges, Kelly Oubre) and Ball is going to have a ton of chances to rack up assists. Additionally, the Hawks give up the fifth-highest FG% from a 3-point distance so the matchup for the Hornets offense is pristine.
Teams To Monitor
Heat – I’m still chasing the Jimmy Butler game with Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro out. Bam Adebayo is still a strong option if Anthony Davis is out for the Lakers. He’s a game-time decision for the first time in weeks, so that changes this game for both sides if he’s active.
Bulls – They will be down Alex Caruso, Lonzo Ball, and Zach LaVine so the duo of Nikola Vucevic and DeMar DeRozan are very appealing in their salary range. DeRozan is a usage hog in that scenario with a 39% usage rate and Vuc is at 1.28 fantasy points per minute.
Sixers – Seth Curry and Shake Milton are both out, so Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, and Furkan Korkmaz are likely to play a boatload of minutes and can all be utilized. Kork especially was popular last slate and did nothing for fantasy, so on a bigger slate, I wonder if he’s not near as popular as the salary should be.
Grizzlies – The Memphis side is still missing a lot of players and Ja Morant is still under $10,000. I don’t know what else really needs to be said there.
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