DFSGhost 
After only four teams took the court yesterday, we’re back with another large NBA slate to tackle. It’s a Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards
If you want a game to stack, you don’t need to go too deep into the NBA slate to get some serious firepower in your lineup. The Nets are still without Kevin Durant, meaning both James Harden and Kyrie Irving will shoulder the bulk of the offense tonight; the two see their usage rates increase from 28.4% and 26.9%, respectively, to 33.7% and 31.6%, while also seeing their FPPMs increase from 1.36 and 1.15, respectively, to 1.53 and 1.50. Kessler Edwards and Patty Mills will be getting a heavy dose of minutes as well, while Day’Ron Sharpe and LaMarcus Aldridge man the paint. On the flip side, Bradley Beal made his return to the Wizards lineup and is far too cheap on both sites tonight while leading the charge on offense for his team this season, averaging 23.7/4.7/6.4 on 45.4% shooting on the season.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks
While there won’t be any particular reason to get exposure to the Timberwolves tonight other than a matchup versus a Hawks team that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating, they are one of the rotations to keep an eye on considering they’re on the second half of a back-to-back.
While the Timberwolves exposure may have to wait, there is already plenty to love about the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Missing both Clint Capela (ankle) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee), the Hawks rotation will be condensed and full of scoring punch. Facing a Minnesota roster that ranks 4th in the NBA in pace plays right into the wheelhouse of franchise star Trae Young, who sits 4th in the league in drives per game while running a high-tempo offense on a nightly basis. Other, John Collins becomes to main roll man in the Hawks’ pick-and-roll offense, where the power forward leads all qualified players in point per possession (PPP) and carries a 69.5% field goal percentage. Onyeka Okongwu will be tasked with more minutes as well, while getting a matchup versus Karl-Anthony Towns, who is ranked fourth-worst in the NBA amongst qualified centers in individual defensive rating. If you’re looking for scoring on the wings (SG/SF), look no further than one of my favorite players to watch, De’Andre Hunter, or Kevin Huerter. This game, and the Hawks side of the ball specifically, will be one of my top targets on tonight’s NBA slate.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Miami Heat
While my interest is limited on the Portland side of the ball with the return of CJ McCollum to the lineup, Miami has a lot of potential. With Kyle Lowry (personal) still out for the Heat, both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro will be prime candidates in the mid range of the pricing grid; taking on a Portland team that ranks 29th in defensive rating will favor the Heat’s top offensive players. Butler comes into this one fresh off a 19-point triple-double versus the Raptors, while Herro has scored in double figures in ten straight games, where he’s sported a 28.9% usage rate and has posted a 22.1/4.7/4.4 scoring line on 39.6% shooting.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Milwaukee Bucks
While the Bucks may be getting Jrue Holiday back in the lineup tonight, the Grizzlies suffered a serious blow to their rotation when Desmond Bane and Kyle Anderson landed in health and safety protocols, joining Dillon Brooks (knee) on the sidelines. As a result, Ja Morant will be tasked with taking on even more offensively, where the face of the franchise has been having a career year with a 24.4/5.7/6.7 scoring line across 32.3 MPG. Moreover, we’ve been playing Brandon Clarke for quite some time now, and tonight, he is back in another good spot; Clarke has seen 20 or more minutes in nine of the past ten, where he’s sported an 18.8% usage rate and has posted a 14.1/7.2/1.5 scoring line on 69.3% shooting, while averaging 29.5 DK PPG, making him an elite play in the mid range of tonight’s NBA slate.
Other Teams to Target
Utah Jazz
I can write a complete article about Utah’s offense tonight, but let’s keep thing short and sweet: Donovan Mitchell (concussion) is out for tonight’s game versus the Houston Rockets, who lead the NBA in pace and are dead last in defensive rating. Things open up a lot for the duo of Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson, who see their usage rates climb from 13.3% and 26.9%, respectively, to 14.4% and 31.2%, while also seeing their FPPM increase from 0.72 and 0.97, respectively, to 0.76 and 1.07.
Detroit Pistons
I won’t try to be a hero and assume who is playing and who is sitting out for the Pistons tonight, but I’m writing this as a reminder to keep an eye on them considering they have a ton of veterans that are rest candidates on the second half of a back-to-back, while getting a friendly matchup versus Sacramento, who rank 7th in the NBA in pace and 27th in defensive rating.
Indiana Pacers
Myles Turner (foot) will be out for the next 2-3 weeks, which means we get an interesting rotation in Indiana’s game tonight versus the Lakers. While the potential return of Malcolm Brogdon could still impact the two players I’m about to discuss, considering the Pacers can simply run Domantas Sabonis at the ‘5’ with Brogdon, LeVert, and Justin Holiday on the court, it’s important to note that both Oshae Brissett and Goga Bitadze will be prime values for us tonight, as well as Chris Duarte, should Jeremy Lamb (knee) be ruled out. While Domantas Sabonis is the prime benefactor at the top of the pricing grid, both Brissett and Bitadze can be elite value plays for us on this NBA slate should things shake out in our favor.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
