A smaller NBA slate today but there are plenty of good spots to attack, including short rotations and elite individual matchups. It’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks
The Pacers will have some of the most popular players on this NBA slate, and rightfully so. Missing plenty of players, including Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, TJ McConnell, Chris Duarte, and Goga Bitadze, we have attractive targets on this team at both ends of the pricing grid. Beginning with none other than fan favorite Domantas Sabonis, who is fresh off a 32/13/7 night where he saw a 26.4% usage rate in nearly 40 minutes, the Pacers main contributors on offense will be tasked with taking on a Knicks starting 5 that is reeling, to say the least. A primary value play on this slate will likely be starting point guard Duane Washington Jr. depending on what the model tells us. On the flip side of this game, there is no Knick priced higher than $6,300 on DK thanks to the absences of Julius Randle, Derrick Rose, and Kemba Walker, in addition to Nerlens Noel, and Mitchell Robinson (Q). Look for RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Alec Burks, and Immanuel Quickley to log heavy minutes for Tom Thibodeau tonight.
Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers
With the Sacramento Kings missing Richaun Holmes in the frontcourt, pending any model changes, Damian Jones will likely be the first player I insert into my NBA lineups tonight. In his first start of the season last game, Jones logged 28 minutes for the Kings, posting an 18/10 double-double on 70% shooting and now gets a Lakers frontcourt that rank 27th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint on the season, and are dead last in the absence of Anthony Davis. Moreover, the combination of De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton are intriguing at reduced price points against a Lakers backcourt that ranks 29th in the NBA to opposing primary ball handlers.
With Sacramento ranking 8th in the NBA in pace and 27th in defensive rating, their games will nearly always be a primary target of ours. Enter LeBron James, who sees his priced reduced on DK as well, despite having averaged 34.8/10.4/6 over his last eight games, where he’s logged nearly 37 MPG and sports a 32.9% usage rate. With few elite targets on this NBA slate, my lineups will likely begin with both Domantas Sabonis and LeBron James to not only solidify a floor, but to chase the two players who can break this thing wide open.
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