Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Games to Target for Saturday 8.8
We get another great day of NBA hoops today with some games that are vastly important for seeding. The Clippers need to continue to fend off the Nuggets for the two seed, Dallas can get out of the seven spot and Portland need to extend their hot play to get the eight seed after a Grizzlies win yesterday. It’s going to be a really fun day so let’s see where we need to focus our attention at for NBA DFS: Games to Target for Saturday 8.8!
Clippers vs Blazers, O/U of 234
Pace – Clippers 8th, Blazers 12th
Clippers – Questionable – Patrick Beverly OUT – Montrezl Harrell
The biggest takeaway for me from the Clippers side is two-fold. Coach Doc Rivers says he would love to have his full team together to get some rhythm going. That won’t happen today, but one of the trickle down effects was the minutes for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Both were on the floor for at least 37 minutes last game. Given the fact that Portland has surrendered 128, 102 and 115 points the last three games, both players are prime targets for me at their salary, preferring Kawhi.
The only catch here is this is a front-end of a back to back. We’ll see if everyone plays but they’re the first game so we’ll have the news we need. That sentence was written last night and it proved to be dead on. Kawhi will sit the front end, making George an absolute lock today. We’ll be in Discord all morning to talk the rest of the team as it develops.
I won’t be targeting Lou Williams unless we know his minutes are coming past 20 like they’ve been the first two games. Ivica Zubac is coming off one of his best games as a pro with over 44 DK but now his price is over $5,000 and he still only played 24 minutes. That’s a long shot to repeat. Portland was mid-pack to centers without Jusuf Nurkic all season.
You can make a case for Marcus Morris in this spot since he’s still under $5,000. He also played 36 minutes last game. Morris only managed a 0.71 DKPM without Trez on the floor but with enough minutes (check), he could grind his way to 6x in what should be an up and down game.
Cash Players to Consider – Kawhi, George, Morris as a last man in
GPP Players To Consider – Zubac, Williams if the minute restriction is gone
Blazers – Doubtful – Hassan Whiteside
We really loved Damian Lillard against Denver and that guy is a fully grown man. He seems determined to carry the Blazers into the playoffs and I’m not going to argue. However, he’s at $10,000 and that is steep against what I suspect will be Kawhi defense. Dame can light it up on any given night and is worth MME exposure but he won’t be anywhere near the core today.
What becomes interesting is who we turn too if we think Dame could be muted. They’re NOT the same player, but when Luka Doncic was quiet, Kristaps Porzingis put up 30 real points again. CJ McCollum hasn’t been scoring a ton but he’s a dynamite GPP option with limited ownership. The same could be said for both Carmelo Anthony and Gary Trent Jr. if Portland needs secondary scoring.
As far as the big men go, Nurkic could get some extra attention with Whiteside likely out. I tend to believe that’s counting twice though. Nurk has been playing 32-ish minutes as it is. I highly doubt he sees a meaningful uptick so don’t go too nuts. He’s still at a very fine price and Zach Collins falls into the Morris category. I’m not going to bat for him but get it if he’s last into the mix.
Cash Players to Consider – Nurkic
GPP Players to Consider – Dame, McCollum, Trent, Melo, Collins
Jazz vs Nuggets, O/U of
Pace – Jazz 22nd, Nuggets 29th
Jazz – Questionable – Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Royce O’Neal
There’s some plays from this game for NBA DFS: Games to Target for Saturday 8.8. The assumption here is all the Jazz players will be back and ready to rock in this one. Given that they’ll be at full strength, I think we need to be a little picky. Donovan Mitchell carries more weight since the team is missing Bojan Bogdanovic. So far inside the bubble, that hasn’t translated to massive fantasy goodness. He’s not hit 6x at this current price tag once. I would still look his way in GPP seeing what Damian Lillard just did to this Nuggets team.
Center Rudy Gobert hasn’t had the easiest time in this matchup over the past couple of years. He hasn’t clipped 45 DK in any of his last eight games and I personally think Nikola Jokic is a very difficult matchup for him. Jokic does post up about 8.3 times a game which helps Gobert play defense. However, Jokic is also supremely skilled otherwise and it’s not to Gobert’s strengths.
Mike Conley might represent our best bet to get a piece of the Jazz offense. I’m not over the moon with his price tag but he has been playing 32-34 minutes in Orlando and Conley is over a 23% usage rate without Bojan. That includes a team leading assist rate of 23.8% and Denver allowed the second-most dimes to opposing point guards this year.
I’m typically not overly chasing Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson or Royce O’Neal unless Utah is short-handed or the price is too good to pass up. I can’t say this game represent either. Clarkson is the closest but I always prefer him under $5,000. Perhaps you could use O’Neal, who admittedly has been good in the bubble. He’s playing a ton of minutes and has gone past 30 DK in three of four games.
Cash Players to Consider – Conley, O’Neal
GPP Players to Consider – Clarkson, Gobert, Ingles
Nuggets – Questionable – Jamal Murray OUT – Will Barton, Gary Harris
If the Nuggets roll into this game as they have all of their other games, is it ok to say I’m getting scared to fade Michael Porter Jr.? Man alive, has he been electric in the restart. MPJ has a 24.2% usage and a 1.20 DKPM so far and has scored well above 50 DK in three straight. I’m not sure $7,200 is enough for current form. He has been shooting the lights out, going over 57% from the field in all three games but this is the type of potential he’s always had.
Oh, they also have this dude named Nikola Jokic. He’s pretty good but his ceiling has not really been there so far. Only once has he surpassed 50 DK points and that took an overtime to do it. We talked about Gobert struggling in this matchup but Joker was the opposite in two games this year. He went for 54 DK and 79 DK. I think he’s a great GPP play with his game logs and perceived difficult matchup.
I’m likely to avoid the rest of the Nuggets, provided Paul Millsap comes back to the lineup. He would shut the door on Jerami Grant as a cheaper forward and Monte Morris has done very little. For now, this is the Jokic and MPJ show.
Cash Players to Consider – MPJ
GPP Players to Consider – Jokic
Lakers vs Pacers
Pace – Lakers 11th, Pacers 24th
Lakers – Questionable – LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Alex Caruso
This is the ugliest game in NBA DFS: Games to Target for Saturday 8.8. I really wonder if the Lakers treat these last couple games a bit more seriously. Yes, they have nothing to play for but they have scored 101 points or fewer in four of their games. The highest score? 108. The worst offensive rating in the NBA this year was the Warriors at 104.4 per game. So ya, not that great for the Lake Show inside the bubble.
IF everyone plays, I’m looking at LeBron James and Anthony Davis. I should say Davis first, because he will torture Myles Turner on the inside in this spot. The Pacers were bottom six to centers (AD plays PF, but semantics) and were bottom 10 in paint points and rebounds given up. LeBron has been comfortable mostly coasting, so I’d be cautious.
If one of the big two sit, we can discuss using Kyle Kuzma and others. Dion Waiters has tailed off so this team is really just Kuzma if someone is out, AD or LeBron. Kuzma played just 30 minutes against the Rockets but took 16 shots and is still affordable.
Cash Players to Consider – Kuzma if someone sits, possibly AD
GPP Players to Consider – LeBron
Pacers – Questionable – TJ Warren, Myles Turner
I mentioned AD would torture Turner but I guess he’d got to play for that to happen. Turner is nursing a sprained foot and may not even suit up. I’m not sure I’d even want to consider any of Goga Bitzdale or TJ Leaf in his stead. The Indy big man would be a scary play with a banged up foot already, plus the matchup.
Bubble sensation TJ Warren came back down to Earth last game, shooting poorly for the first time. He’s still too expensive for my blood, but if he misses I suppose we can look at Malcolm Brogdon andVictor Oladipo. Am I huge fans of either against one of the best defensive teams (third-best defensive rating) in the league? No. But someone has to score a little bit and Dipo and Brogdon would be about the only options. Aaron Holiday could be a nice value if players sit and he starts, since he’s under $5,000.
Cash Players to Consider – TBD
GPP Players to Consider – TBD
Suns vs Heat, O/U of
Pace – Suns 18th, Heat 13th
Suns – None
I find myself quite liking Devin Booker in GPP. With Jimmy Butler still out for the Heat, Booker has an easier path to putting up points in this one and Phoenix has really played tough in Orlando. Booker has a 33.5% usage rate and a 1.31 DKPM in the bubble and Miami is more vulnerable right now.
Deandre Ayton has been a monster when he hasn’t been in foul trouble, although the matchup here isn’t the best. Miami was in the top half of the league in points and boards in the paint. That seems like an important note since Ayton led the NBA in paint touches at 14.3 this year. I think he’s more GPP than cash today.
The only other two Suns that I’m looking at are Ricky Rubio and Cameron Johnson. Rubio is being hurt a little by Booker soaking up so much of the offense and his minutes are trending the wrong way the past three games. I’m more interested in Johnson even at a price that keeps creeping up. He’s kind of come out of left field as far as production, but the rebounds have been a big shift for him. He’s averaging over 10 the last three games and has flashed ceiling with two games over 37 DK.
Cash Players to Consider – Johnson
GPP Players to Consider – Booker, Ayton, Rubio
Heat – Questionable – Goran Dragic OUT – Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn
This side of the game should be popular in NBA DFS: Games to Target for Saturday 8.8. Miami could wind up holding most of the value plays if Dragic misses again. With that trio off the floor, Bam Adebayo looks like a stud with a 1.54 DKPM. The issue is we scroll over and see the sample size is only 23.1 minutes. I still really like Bam, but it’s important to understand these are basically uncharted waters for the Heat.
The trio of Andre Iguodala, Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk should carry some ownership. Iguodala has a name everyone recognizes and his minutes have ramped up to 28 and 32 the past two games. Given the missing bodies, he should probably be over $5,000. Olynyk and Herro both paid off last game at high ownership so folks won’t have issues going right back to the well here. Nunn being out is only going to thin the rotation further. Duncan Robinson is a threat to hit eight 3’s tonight but he really brings nothing much else to the table. In Orlando, he has a grand total of 12 rebounds and assists through four games.
Cash Players to Consider – Herro, Iguodala, Olynyk, Bam
GPP Players to Consider – Robinson
Bucks vs Mavericks, O/U of
Pace – Bucks 1st, Mavericks 18th
Bucks – None
Provided everyone plays and there’s nothing weird, I’m only looking at the big three from the Bucks. We of course start with Giannis Antetokounmpo who could be the back to back MVP. Anytime he’s under $11,000 I feel like I have to look at him to some extent. I’d likely prioritize a Kawhi over him but even if Greek plays 30 minutes, he’s a threat for 60+ DK points every time.
The duo of Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe would be in the mix as well. Bledsoe should be up near 28-30 minutes to ramp him up for the actual postseason and being under $6,000 is a nice price for him. He is third in the pecking order for DKPM but he’s still at 1.15 on the season.
Middleton flirted with a triple double last time out and Dallas has struggled a bit with wings this season. They were bottom-eight to small forwards all year. With Kristaps Porzingis likely to have his hands all the way full with Giannis, Middleton could really be a threat for another 45-50 DK and 30 real points in this one.
Cash Players to Consider – Giannis, Bledsoe
GPP Players to Consider – Middleton
Mavericks – Questionable – Dorian Finney-Smith, Seth Curry
I think this is another instance where we’re only looking at the studs. Yes, DFS and Curry are questionable but that doesn’t mean we know who takes their slack. Coach Rick Carlisle is a pain to try and predict the rotations. The only potential exception I’d make is Trey Burke and just hope the shot is on as he’s played 24 and 31 minutes in the past two.
The more obvious plays are Porzingis and Luka Doncic. It’s interesting to not that the Bucks held Luka to 54 and 27 (!) DK this season. Part of that reason is Luka drives the hoop 20.2 times a game, second-most in the game. With Brooks Lopez and Giannis waiting in the hole, it really hampers a huge part of Luka’s game. I’d rather play Porzingis, who has really blossomed and could take extra scoring in this one.
Cash Players to Consider – Porzingis
GPP Players to Consider – Luka, Burke but we need news we might not get.
Core 4 – George, Porter Jr., Herro, Iguodala (Dragic would take Iggy’s spot if active)
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the NBA page and projections on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
