Adam Strangis NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9
Welcome in to the biggest slate we’ve had in the bubble with seven games today! It’s all day hoops for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9 and it should be a great day with a ton of options. The main goal of today’s article is going to be figuring out how we fit James Harden. With Russell Westbrook already listed out, Harden is simply a must so let’s get to the rest of this slate!
Wizards vs Thunder
Pace – Wizards 5th, Thunder 21st
Wizards – Questionable – Shabazz Napier
We don’t have to go too far into NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9 to find a good game. The Wizards have three really solid options today all priced pretty fairly. The trio of Thomas Bryant, Troy Brown Jr. and Ish Smith have been doing a lot of the heavy lifting in Orlando. Bryant has been near unstoppable, recording a double-double in all but the last game. I’m not sure he has to be jacking five and seven three’s a game but he’s already over 40 DK with poor three point shooting. Imagine if he starts hitting those shots.
Smith went bonkers last game and just missed on 50 DK points. He didn’t even play any real extra minutes at just 32 but he still went 18/6/10. The Thunder were a top 10 team to point guards but Smith’s price barely moved and is still a bargain for role and minutes in this spot.
My last main piece has to be Brown Jr. and it’s a similar situation to Smith. He continues to produce in Orlando and his price isn’t moving either. OKC was the second-best team as far as giving up rebounding chances per game so that is a small concern. Brown’s new-found DFS ability has leaned on him rebounding like crazy.
Cash Players to Consider – Bryant, Smith, Brown
GPP Players to Consider – None
Thunder – OUT – Dennis Schroder, Steven Adams
We talked about finding the best way to fit Harden in your lineups and that means Nerlens Noel, c’mon down. The Thunder big man was average in his last game filling in for Adams but he only played 26 minutes in part because of blowout. However, he does have a 1.08 DKPM mark with Adams off the floor this year. Given that Washington was second-worst team to centers all year, Noel is legitimately a plug and play here.
The rest of the team is where things get interesting. Chris Paul has been wildly overpriced based on performance and considering Schroder has been missing, I’m not terribly inclined to go after him here either. Th same can be said mostly for Danilo Gallinari, although he comes in significantly cheaper. About the best thing I can say for Gallo is the Wizards were bottom-five in three point field goal percentage given up.
The fascinating player is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He was flat awful in the last game when he was chalk. Shooting 3-13 crippled him and it was the second straight terrible shooting game. Still, this is the Wizards and he leads the team in usage rate at 26.9%. If the shot is on, he could go for 50 DK. Lastly, you can punt Luguentz Dort if you need salary relief but don’t expect 6-9 shooting. Also, Mike Muscala should be back to muddy minutes further potentially.
Cash Players to Consider – Noel
GPP Players to Consider – SGA, Gallo, Paul, Dort
Grizzlies vs Raptors
Pace – Grizzlies 7th, Raptors 14th
Grizzlies – OUT – Jaren Jackson Jr.
Usually we like Memphis pieces but I’m not sure they’re really needed today. The Raptors have the second-best defensive rating in the league and could really suffocate the young Grizzlies. We’ve been talking the last few slates that Ja Morant is far too pricey for his production so far. The individual matchup is tough as Kyle Lowry, who sits ninth among 30 minute players in defensive rating himself.
It’s difficult to find a great matchup here on paper that we should really like. Jonas Valanciunas is likely the best bet, with his 1.36 DKPM without JJJ on the floor. Had he played full minutes last game, he would have smashed his price tag with ease and could be a quiet option if this one stays close.
I’m not super interested in Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson or Brandon Clarke in this game. Brooks is a shooter and I don’t generally chase shooters against elite defenses. Anderson is a completely boring option with limited upside and Clarke has struggled even without JJJ. Memphis seems like a good fade on a slate this size.
Cash Players to Consider – None
GPP Players to Consider – JoVal, Morant, Anderson
Raptors – Questionable – Serge Ibaka
It looks like Ibaka will play, which likely robs us of the Marc Gasol is a former Grizzles player narrative. Good thing Brian started vacation yesterday and isn’t writing an article about NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9. This likely isn’t the best spot for Gasol anyways if the game goes fast, but with him and Ibaka splitting it’s easy to not play either.
If playing any Toronto player, I think we’re looking to the backcourt duo of Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. They continue to be the most productive Raptors since the restart with basically matching usage rates around 22% and DKPM’s of 1.13 and 1.19 respectively. Memphis was in the bottom 10 against both guard spots so this spot sets up well for both of them.
The mystery for the Raptors is forward Pascal Siakam. He’s leading the team in usage at 24.9% but has only produced a 0.86 DKPM. His raw fantasy points have decreased in every game so far. He’s a great GPP target since game log watchers won’t look hard at him and he’s far too talented to stay quiet for long.
Cash Players to Target – FVV, Lowry
GPP Players to Target – Siakam
Spurs vs Pelicans
Pace – Spurs 15th, Pelicans 3rd
Spurs – None
This is an excellent spot for the Spurs and they are only two games back of the Grizzlies, so desperation is palpable. Having said that, I’m not 100% sure I want to pay the premium for DeMar DeRozan. One of the first metrics I check for DDR is how the opposition defends FGA from 10-18 feet and within five feet. That’s where 73% of his field goal attempts came from. New Orleans is good to average in the mid-range and ninth-best near the rim.
Instead, I think the plays we need to target is Derrick White and Rudy Gay. They have led the team in DKPM through the restart at 1.25 and 1.30 each and both have a higher usage rate than DDR. For White, the minutes have been about as consistent as they get under Pop and I feel comfortable with the price. Gay is a little bit more of a risk and his minutes are more towards the 24 mark. I wouldn’t rely on him in cash.
If Zion Williamson is still limited (or just out, there’s zero incentive for him to play), I’d be fine with Jakob Poeltl in GPP. I don’t think can handle Zion’s athleticism but maybe he doesn’t have to deal with it. The price leaves him as a non-cash option, needing about 33 DK for 6x. The only other Spur I’d consider is Lonnie Walker IV, but talk about Russian roulette with minutes. He can score but it could be a single digit DK game as well.
Cash Players to Consider – White, DDR but I much prefer other options
GPP Players to Consider – Gay, Poeltl, Walker IV
Pelicans – None
Honestly, I’m about done with New Orleans in Orlando including in NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9. They have flopped time and time again. I mean, who can’t get right against the WIZARDS of all teams?? They have been dreadful in real hoops and in fantasy and I’ll bet the Spurs want this game more.
Since I’d be shocked if Zion plays any meaningful minutes, we can talk about the trio of Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. I’m not really going to play them because Jrue is still at a very elevated price tag and honestly, so is Ingram. Ingram saw a price increase because 30 DK at $8,300 just screams to bump up the salary. Ball has basically forgotten to show up, never surpassing 31 DK. They’re not fooling me again.
Cash Players to Consider – None
GPP Players to Consider – Ingram, Holiday
Magic vs Celtics
Pace – Magic 26th, Celtics 17th
Magic – Questionable – Aaron Gordon
Even if Gordon doesn’t play, I think this is a good spot to pull back on players like Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier and James Ennis as ancillary pieces. The Celtics are a very good defensive squad and the prices are just average here. Ennis would be the favorite but I’m likely steering clear period.
The only player that has my attention in GPP would be Nikola Vucevic. He’s yet to really show a ceiling in the restart but Vuc has a 1.34 DKPM with a 25.1% usage rate. Boston was a top 12 team against centers on the season but the offense will run through Vuc, especially if Gordon is out. I’d be a little scared of playing Gordon coming off an injury and the price doesn’t stand out in any way.
Cash Players to Consider – Vuc
GPP Players to Consider – Gordon
Celtics – None
The good news for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9 is the entire Celtics team is under $8,000. The bad news here is the entire Celtics team is healthy and playing in this game, so it’s more difficult to pick a direction to go. I liked Kemba Walker last game and I still like him, as he only played 23 minutes in the Raptors game. Walker still went for just under 30 DK so give him a full complement of minutes and you could still have a bargain. He has a 1.09 DKPM in the bubble, it’s just been a minutes issue.
The duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are up next in usage and DKPM, with Tatum leading the whole team at 1.22 DKPM. The Magic were a bottom 10 team to power forwards so Tatum catches your eye a bit at his salary. He wouldn’t be a core play but MME exposure would work. I tend to think Brown is a hair expensive but you could definitely pair him with Kemba or Tatum if you wanted to do a little two man stack. I have no interest in Gordon Hayward, who has been very uninvolved in this offense.
Cash Players to Consider – Walker
GPP Players to consider – Tatum, Brown
Sixers vs Blazers
Pace – Sixers 19th, Blazers 12th
Sixers – OUT – Ben Simmons
Simmons is done for the foreseeable future and that leaves Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris as the main cogs of this offense. After Embiid was a total disaster last game, I have a feeling nobody is going to be looking at him. We talked about the seasonal data pointing to Embiid producing the same amount as Luka Doncic as far as DKPM goes. That wasn’t evident the last game so it sounds like a great GPP option in NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.9.
I’ll continue to mostly fade Harris at his price tag. He put up nearly 50 DK last game and that would be 6x by the skin of his teeth at his salary. Harris just isn’t a core play for me today. A player that does really catch my eye is Alec Burks. With Simmons out, he pushed for nearly 30 minutes and made the most of them, scoring 22 real points. That’s about all he’ll do but at only $4,100 against a bad defensive, he makes sense as a cheap option off the Sixers bench.
Al Horford and Shake Milton are right about at the highest threshold for me. Horford at least is playing 30 minutes and average 1.06 DKPM without Simmons on the floor. Milton has been lower in minutes and I think there’s better guard options on this slate.
Cash Options to Consider – Burks, Horford
GPP Options to Consider – Embiid, Harris, Milton
Blazers – Questionable – Hassan Whiteside
Yesterday was an absolutely brutal loss for the Blazers and to say they need to win is an understatement. Damian Lillard is looking for redemption in multiple ways from yesterday and is still at a price that will keep his ownership deflated. He continues to play 40 minutes a game and is a threat for 65+ in every game.
I’d be possibly a little leery about using Jusuf Nurkic on this back to back. First, will the Blazers really push him to a ton of minutes coming off his leg injury and secondly, he has to deal with Embiid. Nurkic seems like a solid fade for the most part. CJ McCollum is coming off a big game but I believe this is a Lillard game. He’s going to go down swinging so I think McCollum is overpriced.
My favorite of the next group of pieces is Gary Trent Jr. since he continues to play a boatload of minutes. There’s no doubt that he and Carmelo Anthony are scoring dependent so it’s buyer beware to some extent. The Sixers are a good defense but these guys are going to throw up shots and Philly was just average for three point defense, which is why I give the edge to Trent.
Cash Plays to Consider – Lillard, Trent
GPP Plays to Consider – Nurk, Anthony, McCollum
Rockets vs Kings
Pace – Rockets 4th, Kings 20th
Rockets – OUT – Russell Westbrook
With Westbrook already ruled out, it’s that time again to lock in The Beard. You can argue a fade all you want in GPP and I get it, in theory. I’m always going to fall on the side of taking the free square that likely gets you 70 DK or more and figuring out the rest. If you play cash, let me stress this right now – you do not fade Nerlens Noel and Harden. DO. NOT. DO. IT.
The value pieces aside Harden aren’t nearly the lock he is, but we have some potential. My favorite is Ben McLemore, who not only scored 30 DK last game but actually looks solid in a 399 minute sample of what the Rockets are playing with. The 18.5% usage is good for Harden ball offense, as is the 0.85 DKPM. He’s easily the cheapest of Danuel House or Robert Covington on top of that so we have two values under $4,000 that we can play right next to Harden. Jeff Green is also an option but takes up a center spot and isn’t as appealing to me. Oh, on top of all this, Sacramento gives up the fifth-highest three point frequency in the NBA.
Cash Players to Consider – Harden, McLemore
GPP Players to Consider – Covington, House, Green, Rivers
Kings – Questionable – Kent Bazemore OUT – Richaun Holmes
This might seem like a weird place to start, but one of the reasons I don’t want to use a C spot on Jeff Green is the presence of Alex Len. He almost put up a double-double in 16 minutes vs the Nets, and would have if he didn’t shoot 1-6. Len has almost always been efficient from a DKPM standpoint and this year was a 1.17 mark. With Houston being a small ball team and a bottom eight team to centers, Len could really do some damage.
Alright, now to the better known names. De’Aaron Fox put up a bit of a stinker last game but has also scored 39, 28 and 30 real points in Orlando. They’ll need his scoring to keep up with the Rockets 3 point barrage and the price is still on the good side of $8,000. His teammate Bogdan Bogdanovic has also been on a tear the past two games, putting up 27 and 35 real points. Again, they’ll need that and his salary has barely risen.
It’s been tough sledding for Buddy Hield in the bubble. He has only passed 20 minutes once and is strictly GPP, hoping that 3 ball is going in.
Cash Players to Consider – Fox, Bogdanovic
GPP Players to Consider – Len (cash if we know he’s starting), Hield
Nets vs Clippers
Pace – Nets 10th, Clippers 8th
Nets – Doubtful – Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris
Well the Nets have basically decided to mail this one in and that puts is in a bit of a bind for the other side of this game. More on that in a minute. With all those players not active, we do get some more value (that I’m not sure if we really need). Rodions Kurucs, Chriss Chiozza, Garrett Temple and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot are all in the running here. They all have between a 0.80 DKPM (Kurucs) and a 1.36 DKPM (Temple). My issues there is it is such a small sample, it seems difficult to really take anything from it. I much prefer using value in the Rockets/Kings game than here, but won’t fight using any of these four players in GPP.
Cash Players to Consider – None
GPP Players to Consider – Temple, Chiozza, Luwawu-Cabbarrot, Kurucs
Clippers – None
I list the injuries as none for now, but I’d have to bet Paul George is sitting this one out. LA has done that all season, sitting one (Kawhi Leonard) in one game of a back to back and then the other in the second. The issue becomes do we want to spend up on Kawhi when this game shouldn’t be remotely close? Yes, I know. These Nets gave the Bucks fits the other day. Still, that’s the exception in my mind. I lean towards not paying up for Kawhi here at least in cash.
The one player I do like in cash for this team is Ivica Zubac. We attack Brooklyn with centers relentlessly and today isn’t any different. It actually gets even better with no Allen on the other side. Zubac averaged 6.3 touches in the paint and Brooklyn was bottom-eight in boards and points in the paint. The only other player I’d think of here is Marcus Morris Sr. if George sits. There’s still room for 6x albeit he could lose time to a blowout.
Cash Players to Consider – Zubac
GPP Players to Consider – Kawhi, Morris
Core 4 – Harden, Noel, Bogdanovic, McLemore
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the NBA page and projections on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
