Adam Strangis NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7
We have quite the five game slate in front of us tonight! Memphis, Brooklyn, Washington and New Orleans are all in action and they have all struggled mightily defensively. Additionally, we have Joel Embiid and the Sixers without Ben Simmons. He suffered a knee injury and it’s not yet know how much time he’ll miss. There’s a lot of options in NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7 so let’s jump in!
Thunder vs Grizzlies, O/U of 222.5
Pace – Thunder 21st, Grizzlies 6th
Thunder – OUT – Dennis Schroder, Mike Muscala
The Thunder get a really nice pace up spot here against the Grizzlies and there’s going to be some pieces that garner attention. The main piece is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who didn’t wow anyone last time out. However, he also shot just 27% from the floor. It’s more important to look at the 24.4% usage rate when Schroder is off the floor. This is the style of game where he can show off a ceiling and is still under $7,000.
If nothing else, SGA has basically matched the output of Chris Paul and SGA is far cheaper. That leaves CP3 as a great GPP target since folks will shy away from the price. Memphis was right about bottom 10 to point guards on the season. We can also consider Danilo Gallinari as a floor style play. Memphis was bottom 10 in three point field goal frequency and makes per game, which fits Gallo well.
The value here doesn’t really appeal to me all that much. Some might be interested in Lugentz Dort, but he is the definition of a player that’s just getting cardio in. Even without Schroder, he’s at a 0.48 DKPM. You’d be lucky to get 21 DK in the 35 minutes he’s playing. Nobody else is reliable even in a great matchup.
Cash Players to Consider – SGA, Gallo
GPP Players to Consider – CP3, maybe Dortz in MME but not much
Grizzlies – OUT – Jaren Jackson Jr.
Is it weird that I almost like Jonas Valanciunas the best out of all the Grizzlies today? There isn’t something in the matchup that jumps off the page. JoVal is top 15 in paint touches but OKC is in the top five in paint rebounds and points given up. However, with JJJ out, JoVal played the most minutes he has inside the bubble at 34. With Jackson off the floor, JoVal leads the Grizzlies with a 1.35 DKPM and it’s not that close. Ja Morant is at 1.11 and the sample size is nearly 900 minutes.
That’s not to say you can’t play Morant. I’m not exactly likely to since 6x would be 51 DK points and the Thunder were a top eight team to point guards. Paul isn’t the defender he used to be but I’m just not convinced you can get enough value from Morant at his price. When we’re talking about NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7, Morant could be overlooked.
Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke lead the secondary tier of players for the Grizzlies and Clarke is interesting. He certainly didn’t play well last game but when the major chalk fails one slate, the masses tend to flock the other way. Clarke is still a 1.09 DKPM player when Jackson is off so he could smash value here. Brooks is totally reliant on his shot so you have some volatility and he’s not a prime target for me.
The other values for the Grizzlies that might be worth a shot in GPP is Grayson Allen and Kyle Anderson. Allen’s minutes have been consistent, which we like. We shouldn’t mistake that for consistency in results though. Allen has shot 14-21 from three so far in the bubble, which is going to come crashing down at some point. Anderson is about the most boring player ever, but could hit 30 DK if he gets another 31 minutes.
Cash Players to Consider – JoVal
GPP Players to Consider – Morant, Clarke, Brooks, Allen, Anderson
Kings vs Nets, O/U of N/A
Pace – Kings 20th, Nets 10th
Kings – None
Sacramento did play yesterday so we’ll need to monitor if anyone is going to be limited but as of now, they’re good to go. I honestly feel so bad for Ghost. He called a big game for Bogdan Bogdanovic in our Discord and he went 1-15 from the field. The next game out Bogdanovic goes for 35 real points and lights it up. He’s still at an awesome price tag and well worth riding to see if he can keep up the hot hand.
I would really love to trust Richaun Holmes and his minutes. He played more than 25 for the first time in the bubble yesterday and the matchup doesn’t get a lot better. Brooklyn has long been terrible against centers and the gave up the fifth-most real points to them this year. If you really wanted to get nuts, Alex Len could be interesting in MME. If he gets 15 minutes, he could clean up with his 1.15 DKPM.
Brooklyn also struggled to contain point guards from scoring this year, finishing as the sixth-worst team in real points to the position. De’Aaron Fox has had one bad game in a blowout to Orlando. In the others, he’s scored 39, 28 and 30 real points and at least 49 DK in those three games. I would much rather play him ahead of Ja Morant.
I would be fairly scared of Buddy Hield right now. He played all of 11 minutes last game, possibly because Bogdanovic was lights out. Still, he is nothing more than an unstable GPP option after seeing that. Brooklyn was about mid-pack in three point frequency, makes and attempts on top of that.
Cash Players to Consider – Fox, Holmes (unless limited)
GPP Players to Consider – Bogdanovic, Hield, Len (could turn into chalk if Holmes is out on a B2B)
Nets – Questionable – Joe Harris,Jarret Allen – OUT – Jamal Crawford
With the exception of Caris LeVert, I’m not sure I want to play a single Net. This also isn’t a prime game for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7 in my mind. With all of the players missing, LeVert has a 24 minute sample size (!!) so that’s not reliable at all. He does rock a 32.9% usage rate but it’s only translated to a 1.04 DKPM. He can 6x at this price or he can give you 30 DK and leave you wanting.
The likes of Tyler Johnson, Garrett Temple and others just don’t look like plays we should really chase. For me, the Nets are mostly a fade unless Brian and Ghost strongly disagree on a facet that I’m missing.
Cash Players to Consider – None
GPP Players to Consider – LeVert
Magic vs Sixers, O/U of N/A
Pace – Magic 26th, Sixers 19th
Magic – Doubtful – Aaron Gordon – OUT – Jonathan Isaac
We’re going to assume that Gordon is indeed out, as listed as doubtful the day before is not promising. If that’s the case, it’s hard to look past Nikola Vucevic getting a bump in usage by 4.4% all the way to 30.6%. He racks up a 1.36 DKPM on top of that. The rub comes in the matchup. The Sixers were the third-best team against centers (his name is Joel Embiid) and that is a concern. It should be noted that Vuc managed 44 and 45 DK this year with Gordon in the lineup. If he can stay out of foul trouble, Vuc could look at 50+.
The next two players are both tough to project because they are streaky shooters. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross can both shoot the lights out or do nothing. They both see a bump in usage rate by about 2% but it would be foolish to rely on them in cash. I’d have share of each but that’s about as far as I’d go.
DJ Augustin and Markelle Fultz are still splitting time at the point guard spot as well. I’d certainly lean Augustin as he’s played a handful more minutes, but neither is a prime target here.
James Ennis is going to be THE punt forward. Perhaps I buried it a bit too far into NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7 but without Gordon Ennis is just simply too cheap and is chalk. He has played 27 and 28 minutes without Isaac and some without Gordon. He also hit 20 DK despite going 4-12 from the field last game.
Cash Players to Consider – Vuc, Ennis
GPP Players to Consider – Fournier, Ross, Augustin, Fultz
Sixers – OUT – Ben Simmons – Questionable – Mike Scott, Glenn Robinson III
We still have the crown jewel game to go but it has to be said that most builds need to start with Joel Embiid today. He’s coming off the highest raw points on the slate last time and he’s without Simmons for the whole game. When Simmons is off the court, Biid has a 37.3% usage and 1.68 DKPM in 580 minutes. For reference, Luka Doncic of the Mavericks has a 36.8% usage and a 1.65 DKPM on the season.
The question then becomes do we want any other Sixer with Simmons out and my main lean is no. Yes, Tobias Harris is at a 25.6% usage and 1.08 DKPM but that’s barely a movement on his normal marks. Paying so much for shooters can easily backfire, ask TJ Warren from yesterday. With the pace not expected to be anything special, he’s mostly a fade.
You could make an argument for any of Shake Milton, Al Horford or Josh Richardson but there’s nothing to be really happy about here. Nobody stands out as getting the ball more and the salaries are nothing too great. If I had to pick, I’m likely to go with Milton. He should handle the ball a bit more by default so he could walk into some extra points.
Cash Players to Consider – Embiid
GPP Players to Consider – Harris, Milton, Horford, Richardson
Wizards vs Pelicans, O/U of N/A
Pace – Wizards 5th, Pelicans 3rd
Wizards – None
This is the best game on paper to stack for NBA DFS Games to Target for 8.7. Honestly, you can make the case to play Embiid with Ennis with as many pieces as you can fit from here. The most expensive player is Thomas Bryant and man has he been playing well. He’s exceeded 43 DK in three of four games and even managed to put up 47 against Embiid. We need to note the sample but Bryant is at a 1.35 DKPM in the bubble and the Pelicans aren’t a tough matchup.
The next man up is an easy fit in Ish Smith. He’s been under 30 DK the past two games but that’s come on the back of a combined 10-27 shooting. He played 30 minutes against Philly and we should see that again in a warp speed pace game.
Past that, most of the other main pieces of the Wizards are capped at about 30 minutes. The exception is Troy Brown Jr. but he’s come back to Earth after his 50 DK point explosion. He’s a cash option with a safe floor but it’s a touch under 6x so he’s not an attractive option. Rui Hachimura is getting big minutes but it seems like he and Bryant aren’t co-existing as far as fantasy production. He’s had a hard cap, not exceeding 32 DK so far. Even Jerome Robinson doesn’t seem like a good bet to go much past 30 DK.
Cash Players to Consider – Bryant, Smith
GPP Players to Consider – Brown, Robinson, Hachimura
Pelicans – None
The Pelicans have been a pretty massive disappointment in Orlando. They have pretty much zero chance at making the playoffs so I will not be shocked to see Zion Williamson sit today on a back to back. He hasn’t gone past 25 minutes and they have nothing left to play for.
IF that is the case, I want all the Brandon Ingram. It’s the Wizards and Ingram has a 31.2% usage rate and a 1.20 DKPM on the season without him. He’s the primary scorer and I can’t possibly see who defends him. We haven’t seen the ceiling from him but it can happen fast without Zion.
Next up would be the duo of Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball and make no mistake, it’s in that order. Neither player has been very good in the bubble and that helps explain why they’re heading home soon. However, they see a bump with no Zion as well. Holiday is an expensive luxury that only really works in GPP and Lonzo is just never a cash option with his instability.
We usually target centers against Washington but Derrick Favors is the exception past MME. He’s just not that involved and only gets about 25 minutes per game. The last man that has some interest for me is JJ Redick. Washington gives up the fifth-highest field goal percentage from deep and we know Redick can still shoot the three ball.
Cash Players to Consider – Ingram
GPP Players to Consider – Holiday, Ball, Zion if he plays, Redick
Celtics vs Raptors, O/U of 218.5
Pace – Celtics 18th, Raptors 14th
Celtics – None
Boston will be at relatively full strength for this heavyweight tilt and I’m kind of looking at Kemba Walker. He sat out last game but Boston now only has three games left before the real playoffs begin. Walker has seen his minutes ramp up from 19 to 22 to 27. If he gets to 30-32, $6,000 is a bit too cheap. Walker is right next to Jayson Tatum in usage (27.8%) and DKPM (1.16).
Tatum completely burned the field last game as he couldn’t stay out of foul trouble early and the game turned into a major blowout. I’m not sure I’d want to pay nearly $8,000 for him but it’s an interesting game theory. The masses are hurt from last game and if Kemba stinks, Tatum should carry the water for the Celtics.
When everyone is active, I tend to stay away from players like Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart. This game doesn’t set up as anything that will be different. I find them to be just a hair too expensive for the game environment and given our other options this evening.
Cash Players to Consider – Walker (possibly, we’ll check the news)
GPP Players to Consider – Tatum, Brown, Smart, Hayward
Raptors – None
Much like the Celtics, my interest in Toronto is going to be pretty limited. If we’re just going by the bubble games, Fred VanVleet would be the first man in. He’s been ridiculous so far with three straight games over 40 DK. That’s been fueled by a boost in assists and boards, to go along with 36 real points in one game. Just remember that A. These things tend to even out and B. Marcus Smart is a good defender.
On the opposite end of that spectrum, Pascal Siakam has been….not good for fantasy thus far. He sits over $8,000 in salary but has yet to clear 40 DK in any game. I always struggle with Siakam. I love him as a player but that’s not always good enough for DFS, especially a a high salary. Boston was also top 12 against either forward position so it’s not a great matchup for him either.
I also believe that Kyle Lowry is too expensive for this game as well. He needs 50+ to clear value but Boston was the second-best team to point guards on the year. That included being top five in three points and assists given up so it doesn’t make sense to pay this price.
Nobody among the secondary pieces really stand out here among Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka or OG Anunoby. Gasol and Ibaka are still splitting minutes almost down the middle so it’s basically impossible for that spot. Anunoby plays the minutes we like for value guys but he also only averages 0.79 DKPM so there’s not much there.
Cash Players to Consider – None that I love
GPP Players to Consider – FVV, Siakam, Lowry
Core 4 – Embiid, Ennis, Ish Smith, Ingram/Fox pending Zion’s status
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the NBA page and projections on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
