Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10
As of Sunday night, this slate is pretty much a mess. The list of stars that are questionable or out are as long as my arm and it’s making life difficult. Please stay tuned in the Discord and we’ll make adjustments on the fly the best we possibly can and the NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10 is subject to change quickly.
I will still list options as normal, but I may take the day off from cash on this slate. There’s just so many questions and different start times, it might be tough. Also, this is a great time to remind everyone – set up your lineup with the later games in your G, F and Utility spots on DK. Leave yourself flexibility the best you can! Alright, let’s get rolling into this slate!
Thunder vs Suns
Pace – Thunder 21st, Suns 9th
Thunder – Questionable – Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel OUT – Dennis Schroder
The Thunder aren’t my friend right now after they flip-flopped on their lineup about 532 times yesterday. Eventually they landed on Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel sitting out, opening up some value. If that happens again, my favorite value is likely Luguentz Dort. He seems to be the least reliant on scoring, unlike Mike Muscala and Darius Bazley but I think all three are viable if the Thunder have no big men again.
I maintain that Chris Paul is too pricey to land at about 40 DK almost every single game. He only has one game with more than 12 FGA and even with efficiency, he just seems capped right now. Likewise, I almost never pay over $6,000 for Danilo Gallinari. Especially in the restart, he’s had trouble clearing 30 DK and you need close to 40 to pay off his tag. The Suns are bottom 10 in 3 point FG% given up but that’s not enough to tempt me.
I thought Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was really going to pick up the slack with Schroder out but it just hasn’t happened. It seems the Thunder just spread it around and SGA hasn’t scored more than 19 real points outside of one game. He doesn’t do enough other side to make it worth it. You could play a narrative where he and Suns star Devin Booker trade buckets, but that’s flimsy in my mind.
Cash Plays to Consider – IF Noel and Adams are out – Dort, Muscala, Bazley
GPP Plays to Consider – SGA, Paul, Gallo
Suns – None
The pricing makes the Suns a little tricky but if so many studs sit, we might not have a ton of spend up options. Booker leads the charge for the Suns who have been incredible in Orlando. They are undefeated and could still get into the nine spot, forcing a play in with the eight seed. Last game saw Booker score 35 real points and he missed all seven three pointers, so he could have really done some damage. He’s going to bring it again in this one.
The rest of the team is tougher to figure out. Deandre Ayton could really get a great matchup if the Thunder miss Adams, but he has to hit 50 DK at his current price. That’s a bit of a long shot and if Adams plays, the matchup is tough with the Thunder being a top 10 team in paint rebounds and points allowed.
The secondary pieces are a little volatile as well. We had some serious Cameron Johnson love last game but he inexplicably played only 27 minutes after playing at least 36 in every other game. That’s probably a no fly for me at $5,200 but I’d have MME exposure. Ricky Rubio has been muted for fantasy terms with Booker and Ayton doing a lot of the work and needs about 40 DK. No thank you there. Game log watchers might go after Jevon Carter a little bit but I’ll bet he’s not going to shoot like that at all tonight.
Cash Players to Consider – Booker, Ayton if Adams/Noel are out
GPP Players to Consider – Johnson, Cameron Payne
Mavericks vs Jazz
Pace – Mavs 18th, Jazz 22nd
Mavericks – Questionable – Seth Curry OUT – Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith
Well the Mavericks are going to be missing some pretty large pieces for NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10. All eyes are going to be on Tim Hardaway Jr. and I get it. It’s interesting to note that in a 187 minute sample size, THJ only has a 0.89 DKPM on a 27.8% usage. If he’s chalky (likely), you could really make a strong argument for a GPP fade and hope he only goes for about 30 DK or so.
Maxi Kleber is going to be worth a look with a 0.99 DKPM but he does have a tough matchup on the inside. Dallas has some options to throw out there like Trey Burke, Delon Wright and maybe Seth Curry. It’s going to be tougher to figure it out unless we know the starters but Burke remains my favorite but it’s tough to pick since they all get around 18-20 minutes a night.
Two wild cards could be J.J. Barea and the Majestic Boban Marjanovic. If I had any thoughts of Barea actually getting minutes, I would love him at minimum price. I know we got excited about Bojan starting only to see him get six minutes. This matchup is drastically different and they need some size. Really, the only members of the regular rotation that are active are THJ, Kleber, Burke, Wright, maybe Curry and Justin Jackson. I’m hoping for some clarity towards lock.
Cash Players to Consider – THJ, Kleber
GPP Plays to Consider – TBD
Jazz – Questionable – Donovan Mitchell
I really wonder if the Jazz just rest Mitchell even if he can go with Dallas being so short-handed themselves. If Mitchell is out for any reason, the duo of Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson come to the forefront. With Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic still out, the Jazz would need to replace 42 points in their offense. I tend to think Joe Ingles is a bit pricey but would be more inclined to play him with Mitchell out. He doesn’t score a ton but the 24.6% assist rate is nice with those players off the floor.
My favorite target on this side regardless might just be Rudy Gobert. Dallas was good in the paint this year with a top 12 mark in paint boards and points allowed. The loss of Porzingis is going to hurt those marks a whole lot and Gobert isn’t going to find the most resistance in the paint. Even if Boban plays, he’s got size but is not someone to fear defensively. Gobert finished in the top-four in paint touches on the season.
Cash Players to Consider – Pending Mitchell’s status, Gobert
GPP Players to Consider – Royce O’Neal, Ingles
Raptors vs Bucks
Pace – Raptors 12th, Bucks 1st
Raptors – None
If both teams take this one seriously, this is a heavyweight fight and could be a preview of the East Finals. The Raptors come in healthy and my favorites remain in the backcourt with Kyle Lowry and Fred Vanvleet. These teams were in the top three in three point frequency allowed, so both guards are going to chuck shots. Along those same lines, a player like Norman Powell could be a nice game stack option and could fall into 30 DK if his shot works.
Pascal Siakam sort of woke up a bit yesterday, putting up 26 real points. That unfortunately only meant 36 DK but his price is coming down. His 24.9% usage in the bubble cannot continue to give mediocre results. Milwaukee was bottom-eight to PF and they got hammered on the boards for the fifth-most rebounds to that position. It should be noted that Spicy P only went over 37 DK once in four games vs the Bucks this season. Lowry does have a 50 DK game under his belt.
Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol are still splitting, but I wonder if Gasol sits out. It’s just a guess but on a back to back it’s possible. Ibaka would be a great option at this salary in that case. Other than that, I don’t want to chase Ibaka’s outburst from yesterday.
Cash Players to Consider – FVV, Lowry
GPP Players to Consider – Siakam, Powell, Ibaka if Gasol is out
Bucks – Questionable – Giannis Antetokounmpo
It appears that any issue for Giannis Antetokounmpo is minor but you can’t possibly convince me the Bucks will push him here. If he’s healthy, I’m always interested. It’s Giannis. Any injury makes me very leery at this point in the season.
I plan on skipping Eric Bledsoe as his minutes haven’t come up quick enough and I think Lowry should relatively cancel him out. That really leaves us with Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez as other options. Both players can get hot from behind the arc in a hurry and the Raptors let up a league-leading 44% three point frequency. I believe both prices are really solid and Lopez could go overlooked at center.
IF Giannis sits, I would lock both these players and then think much harder on Bledsoe. Middleton and Bledsoe are basically identical at about a 33% usage rate and 1.43 DKPM. Lopez jumps 5% in usage to 23.3%.
Cash Players to Consider – Giannis, Middleton, Lopez
GPP Players to Consider – Bledsoe
Pacers vs Heat
Pace – Pacers 23rd, Heat 27th
Pacers – Questionable – TJ Warren
I’m going to go out on a limb here in NBA DFS: Games to Target for 8.10 and say TJ Warren suits up, lest he be called every name in the book by other players. In case you forgot, Warren and Heat star Jimmy Butler got INTO it back in January. They trash-talked, Warren got ejected, Butler blew him kisses and Warren flipped him off as he left. Butler also proceeded to call Warren “trash”, “soft” and claim “he’s not in my league”.
Oh and to top it off, Butler posted a picture of the Heat schedule with the next Pacers matchup and circled it. Warren is going to play and he’s red hot but I just can’t stand that price. That’s especially true if he might get ejected.
The play here is Victor Oladipo to my eyes. He’s coming off his high water mark in minutes and shots in Orlando and the price is still under $6,000. The 23.3% usage is only behind Warren and Malcolm Brogdon. I don’t know if there’s any ceiling left for Brogdon at this price and it’s mostly a fade for me. I have no real interest in Myles Turner with Bam Adebayo on the other side.
Cash Players to Consider – Oladipo, Brogdon
GPP Players to Consider – Warren, Aaron Holiday
Heat – Questionable – Goran Dragic OUT – Kendrick Nunn
I’m not bothering to list Butler as questionable because he’s not missing this game. Few players thrive on disrespect like Butler, perceived or otherwise. I don’t love that Butler doesn’t have a three point shot in his game anymore. He shot 24.8% from deep (yikes) and the three is the great equalizer. Still, he wants to prove that Warren isn’t better than him. Taking Kendrick Nunn off the floor bumped his usage all the way up to 29.8% during the season with a 1.29 DKPM. This is a Jimmy Buckets game on paper.
Adebayo’s matchup is juicy because Myles Turner can’t defend that well (blocks don’t always equate to defense) but the price is very high after Butler has missed a couple games. I still really like Tyler Herro at salary, regardless of Goran Dragic (who should play). Herro was at a 0.85 DKPM even with Butler playing so the salary is still fine.
Dragic is just too good of a price to pass up so if I have to choose, I’m going Dragic over Herro. I likely avoid the rest of the players like Andre Iguodala if I believe Butler takes over. We also need to be careful to some extent with Kelly Olynyk. He was down to 22 minutes last game and that makes him much less of a sure thing at $5,100.
Cash Players to Consider – Butler, Herro
GPP Players to Consider – Bam, Dragic
Nuggets vs Lakers
Pace – Nuggets 29th, Lakers 11th
Nuggets – OUT – Will Barton, Gary Harris
I think we’re really only looking at a three man core here from Denver in NBA DFS: Games to Target for 8.10. Players like Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant and Monte Morris are falling by the wayside in the face of the Nuggets power trio right now. I say trio because my word, welcome back Jamal Murray.
I didn’t even consider him at salary in his first game back from a hammy injury but he played almost 40 minutes of basketball, took 25 shots and scored 53.5 DK points. That took two overtime periods to achieve, but still. The Lakers were vulnerable to PG during the year, finishing fifth-worst in DK points given up.
Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic have to be in consideration as well. The respective matchups are not easy. Los Angeles finished ninth vs SF and 1st vs C and PF (depending on how you qualify MPJ). Still these two have a 23.7% usage and 29.6% usage rate in the bubble. Murray certainly wasted no time and in his one game, he took up 30.8% and scored 1.36 DKPM. Nobody else on the team is over 18.2% so this is what I’m talking about with a three man show.
Cash Players to Consider – Murray, Jokic, MPJ
GPP Players to Consider – Grant
Lakers – Questionable – LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Danny Green OUT – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
The Lakers remain a fairly unappealing team for NBA DFS: Games to Target 8.10 after the two big names, in all honesty. Kyle Kuzma, Dion Waiters and Alex Caruso just don’t do enough when James and AD are on the floor. I’m certainly not chasing Quinn Cook and his 21 real points from last game (he scored 23 DK…think about that).
So that leaves us with the big two, LeBron and Davis. I won’t lie, AD at under $10,000 simply has to get your attention. The bubble versions of these two players have been a little odd. The usage is slightly down for both and the 1.37 DKPM for LeBron and 1.22 mark for Davis are well below the normal. The prices are interesting and I maintain the Lakers want at least a little momentum heading into the real playoffs.
Cash Players to Consider – Davis, LeBron but I do prefer others in that range
GPP Players to Consider – None
Core 4 – Booker, Hardaway Jr., Dragic, Gobert
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the NBA page and projections on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
