Tony Cutillo 
Back-to-back slates where we smashed the best bets posted in the NBA DFS article. We get another six-game slate on DraftKings and I’ll break down my core plays and favorite game to attack. On top of that, two more bets will be posted. Let us continue the streak and keep the green rolling in.
NBA DFS – Core Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $10,700 – 55.96 DK Points – 5.23 Value Rating
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has an amazing matchup tonight versus the San Antonio Spurs as they struggle against point guards. Coming in as the second-highest projected player on the slate, Gilgeous-Alexander should have a fairly easy run to exceed expectations. He’s currently averaging 31.8 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.6 rebounds per game in his last five games. He has recorded 30 or more points in those last five games also.
With the defense of the San Antonio Spurs against point guards, they are allowing them to average 26.4 points, 8.9 assists, and 6.7 rebounds per game. Allowing point guards to flirt with the double-double bonus. Also for Oklahoma City, this is a slight pace-up spot as the Spurs average 105.1 possessions per game compared to Thunder’s 104 possessions per game.
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Bol Bol $3,900 – 24.18 DK Points – 6.20 Value Rating
Bol Bol comes in as a strong value play and his two most recent games will show why. Versus Houston last Friday, Bol recorded 25 points with 14 rebounds and then recorded 11 points and four rebounds versus the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Now with a four-day break, Bol Bol will be refreshed and ready to keep up the consistent play that he has found.
The big hang-up right now is with Jusuf Nurkic, who has the probable tag as of this morning. If things change for the worse and he moves to questionable, Bol Bol will see a huge boost in projection, value, and ownership. However, it would be ownership that I’d want to eat in the lineup.
Chet Holmgren $7,900 – 40.94 DK points – 5.18 Value Rating
While Victor Wembanyama is the higher projected player between the two young stars in this matchup, Chet Holmgren sits at a nice price tag. Sitting at $7,900, Holmgren gets a San Antonio Spurs defense that struggles also against some bigs. They currently allow them to average 26.5 points, 16 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. We should get Chet to pay off his price tag but also exceed it.
There will be a double-double bonus upside also as he has averaged 20.4 points and 10 rebounds in his past five games while averaging 30.9 minutes. Overall for the season, his average has been 17.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists with a usage rate of 21.5%. He does come second when it comes to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but the duo can make a dominating impact tonight versus the San Antonio Spurs, plus with Holmgren’s price tag, it leaves room for more alongside Bol Bol.
NBA DFS – Game To Target
Oklahoma City Thunder (-625) versus San Antonio Spurs (+455) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Following my core plays, you’ll notice two of the three plays are from this game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren make for strong plays. Overall, there are many spots in this game that we can look at. The other pay-up spot is Victor Wembanyama who is at the price tag of $10.100 on DraftKings. Both he and Gilgeous-Alexander are two of the top three projected players on this slate.
While it is the second-highest total out of the six games on the slate, the pace of play makes for a great spot to attack. Oklahoma City plays at a pace of 104 possessions per game while the San Antonio Spurs average 105.1 possessions per game. With that, we have a few salary-saver spots to look at from this game also. Lu Dort comes in at $4,400 while Tre Jones and Jeremy sit at $5,000 and $5,1000. The game could get out of hand but if so, I believe SGA and Holmgren still can pay off their price tag, especially Chet sitting at $7,900.
NBA DFS – Best Bets
Draymond Green over 0.5 3-PT Made -125 (FD Sportsbook)
We’re going to continue riding the hot 3-point hand of Draymond Green. If you checked out the article on Tuesday (February 27th), we played the same prop bet for Green. He has now made at least one three-point shot in six straight games while taking at least two attempts in four of his last five. The New York Knicks do allow bigs to average 2.6 made 3-point shots per game also. overall, our NBA DFS Player Prop Model has this bet at a 162.58% edge and we’re not passing that up.
Alperen Sengun over 0.5 Blocked Shots -115 (bet365)
Moving on to the fifth-highest edge-rated bet is going to be Alperen Sengun over 0.5 blocked shots which sits at a 55.30% edge. Sengun has at least one blocked shot in four of his last five games. He’s averaging one blocked shot in his last five games and 0.8 on the season. The Phoenix Suns do allow 1.8 blocked shots per game for opposing centers so Alperen Sengun should have his opportunities to hit his prop.
Get access to our NBA DFS Player Prop Model here and find the best edge in the industry! An example from yesterday is below. Click the image for today’s updated model
