The 11/1 NBA DFS schedule is built around eight games on the main slate, giving DFSers an abundance of options in a star-filled evening.
Cleveland at Indiana, 7:00 PM Eastern
The Cavaliers don’t offer much offensively, averaging 106 points per game (22nd overall). They are a respectable 13th in scoring defense (108.3). At 26th in pace (100.1), they should have some DFS opportunity against a Pacers team that is 28th in pace (98.7).
Tristan Thompson ($7800 FD) is either playing over his head or the Cavs have finally decided to let him become an offensive option (27.90 PER). The answer is somewhere in between, but he’s a good play tonight, especially since the Pacers won’t have Myles Turner available. Kevin Love ($8800 FD) has only a 20.9 usage rate, but he’s grabbing 16.8 boards and five assists. If he’s scoring 15-17 per game, that’s a stat stuffer worth having in your lineup. Collin Sexton ($4800 FD) is averaging 17.5 points but if you’re not getting assists from your point guard, well…
Best Play — Thompson. Dud — Sexton. Sleeper — Larry Nance ($6000, FD)
The Pacers are doing some damn good underachieving thus far. The offense is 24th in scoring (105.3), which offsets its 12th-ranked scoring defense (108.3). As mentioned, they’re running at a very slow pace with a middle-of-the-pack offensive rating of 106.7 (16th).
One could only imagine how worse things would be for the Pacers if Malcolm Brogdon ($9200 FD) wasn’t playing at an elite level. Brogdon has increased his usage rate by a third, going from a modest 20 last season to his current 30. The question will be whether he can maintain that pace as the focal point of the offense. Domantas Sabonis ($8800 FD) is playing like his numbers suggested he could: as a 20-10 player. He’s only playing at a 24.9 usage rate, and I’m betting it goes up as long as Turner is out. T.J. Warren ($6300 FD) is playing at a very disappointing level. I would have never expected he’d be playing at a PER below 10. Jeremy Lamb ($6400 FD) has been decent, but barely moves the DFS needle.
Stud — Brogdon. Dud — Warren. Sleeper — Justin Holiday ($3800 FD)
Houston at Brooklyn, 7:00 PM Eastern
The Rockets are first in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. They will not bore you. They are also a gateway to big DFS money tonight because they’re not going to take their foot off the gas and will dare the Nets to play at track meet-level.
This has become Russell Westbrook’s team. No kidding. James Harden ($11,000 DK) is playing as if he’s the sidekick to Westbrook ($9800 DK) instead of the other way around. Harden is blowing off the doors with a 40.8 usage but is playing below expectations. I’m not paying for him tonight. I will, however, pay for Westbrook, who already has a pair of triple-doubles. Consider pairing Westbrook with Clint Capela ($7400 DK), who puts up solid numbers nightly despite a usage rate under 20. P.J. Tucker ($4700 DK) is fun to watch as an undersized four. This could be a game to add him to a few lineups.
Stud — Westbrook. Dud — Eric Gordon ($4000 DK). Sleeper — Tucker
This will be a great game for some stacking, as the Nets are 10th in offensive rating and are also 10th in pace. Brooklyn will be more than willing to trade shots with Houston, so buckle up.
Obviously, it begins with Kyrie Irving ($9000 DK), who is playing One Man Gang-like DFS. His 37.4 Usage rate is high, but most of us would have imagined a higher total. He’ll get his 50+ DKP tonight, and the only way that happens is if he’s injured or in foul trouble. As mentioned before, I love Jarrett Allen ($5000 DK), and it’s beginning to look like the Nets are willing to give him more minutes. He’d be a good sidekick for Irving. Caris LeVert ($6000 DK) makes for an interesting play.
Stud — Irving. Dud — Taurean Prince ($4900 DK). Sleeper — Allen.
Milwaukee at Orlando, 7:30 PM Eastern
The Bucks run the third-highest pace in the league and sport an offensive rating ranked eighth overall. Defensively, their rating is 15th, so there’s some room for improvement.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800 FD) is obviously the engine of the Bucks and is among the most expensive players on the slate. He’s a double-double lock who’s also adding eight assists and a steal per night. Khris Middleton ($7300 FD) becomes more valuable now that he’s grabbing nearly seven boards per night. Brook Lopez ($5600 FD) is a bonus with blocked shots, but you can’t trust a center who can’t give you boards. Eric Bledsoe ($6300 FD) has a PER under 10. You may not buy into PER as much as I do, but a starter below 10 PER isn’t going to carry you to DFS glory.
Stud — Antetokounmpo. Dud — Bledsoe. Sleeper — Middleton.
Only two teams are averaging fewer than 100 points per game. The Magic happen to be one of them. They also happen to be the worst scoring offense in the league at 95.8 points per game. Needless to say, there’s not a lot of DFS gold to be found here.
You can count on the double-double from Nikola Vucevic ($8700 FD), and he’s a good bet to hit his 35 FDP. Beyond that, the only other Magic player to be excited about is Jonathan Isaac ($6600 FD), who has an embarrassingly low 15.5 Usage rate. On a team as bad as Orlando, Issac needs to be at least in the mid-20s in UR. Since he’s not, that means players like Aaron Gordon ($6700 FD), Evan Fournier ($5000 FD) and D.J. Augustin ($4100 FD) are hoarding usage while producing at poor levels. That has to change.
Stud — Vucevic. Dud — Gordon. Sleeper — Isaac.
New York at Boston, 7:30 PM
For all the flashes of potential, the Knicks are 28th in scoring and 26th in offensive rating. They’re 25th in pace. In short: little has changed with the Knicks.
You still have to strongly consider RJ Barrett ($6600 DK), whose PER doesn’t quite match up to his impressive DFS numbers. He’s a rookie who’s playing over expectation, yet this clash against the Celtics will give us an indication of whether he’s a legit DFS option or if he thrives off lesser competition. Mitchell Robinson ($5200 DK) can’t be trusted until his ankles get healthy. He’s not going to get off the court, so just play him at your own risk. Julius Randle ($7600 DK) is up and down. He was up on Wednesday, but I see more down tonight. Bobby Portis ($5400 DK) could surprise off the bench.
Stud — Barrett. Dud — Robinson. Sleeper — Portis.
Boston sits in the middle ground when it comes to pace but they are ninth in defensive rating, which makes this a challenge if you’re considering to play a Knicks player or two.
This is Jayson Tatum’s team. Tatum ($7000 DK) is second to Kemba Walker ($8400 DK) in scoring, but he’s adding a pair of steals on the defensive end to go along with what he does on offense. Walker is adding a surprising five boards a night but is getting less than four assists per night. Jaylen Brown ($5600 DK) is questionable tonight, which is disappointing since I thought he was the sleeper in this lineup. Gordon Hayward ($6100 DK) is getting heavy minutes thus far, a very good sign he’s beyond his near career-ending injury two years ago.
Stud — Tatum. Dud — Marcus Smart ($4900 DK). Sleeper — Hayward.
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Detroit at Chicago, 8:00 PM Eastern
Don’t count on this game being a run and gun affair. The Pistons are 21st in pace, just above the Bulls, who are ranked 23rd. Detroit is a surprising 15th in offensive rating but sit at 24th in defensive rating.
You know what you’ll get from Andre Drummond ($10,100 FD). You have to ask yourself if his 50.97 FDP is worth it. Derrick Rose ($5700 FD) is looking like the Derrick Rose we all wished he could have been, but he’s dealing with a bad hammy and may sit out tonight. Reggie Jackson ($4600 FD) is also out, which means the Pistons are going to need a little more production from Luke Kennard ($4900 FD). The Pistons have four players who have started at least three games with PERs lower than 10, which doesn’t bode well for DFS users.
Stud — Drummond. Dud — Markeiff Morris ($4400 FD). Sleeper — Kennard.
The Bulls sit in the bottom third in most categories, but if they were pick up the pace, you could begin to feel good about the young cornerstones of the lineup.
Bad thumb or not, Wendell Carter Jr. ($6600) has made marked improvement and could be a reliable DFS option if he can get his Usage rate beyond 19. I do like the pairing of him and Lauri Markkanen ($7300 FD), who has a 26.9 Usage rate and the caliber of game that could see him really thrive if he hits above 30 in UR. Zach LaVine ($7600 FD) tops the team at 28.8 UR and his strong start is a good sign that he’s becoming a good DFS option on most nights. Otto Porter ($5500 FD) is stealing money right now. Don’t let him steal yours’ by putting him in your lineup.
Stud — LaVine. Dud — Porter. Sleeper — Carter
LA Lakers at Dallas, 9:30 PM Eastern
The addition of Anthony Davis ($10,600 DK) has made Showtime more like Slowtime, as the Lakers are 22nd in pace. However, they are seventh in offensive rating, which shouldn’t be a shock considering they have a pair of transcendent players in AD and LeBron James ($9900 DK).
What Davis has done is made the Lakers more defensive. LA is seventh in defensive rating, helped by the fact Davis averages three blocked shots per game and role player Dwight Howard ($4700 DK) is rejecting 2.3 shots per night. The Lakers are also getting 8.5 steals per game, which have enhanced the DFS potential of Davis and James. In the end, though, Danny Green ($4300 DK) is the only other Lakers player that can offer value outside of a Showdown format, that is at least until Kyle Kuzma ($6000 DK) makes his season debut tonight.
Stud — Davis. Dud — JaVale McGee ($4000 DK). Sleeper — Green.
Dallas is sitting third in offensive rating but 20th in defensive rating. The Mavs are middle of the road when it comes to pace, but I sense they may like to run a faster pace tonight with their host of younger legs seeking to wear down the Lakers.
Luka Doncic ($9700 DK) hasn’t found his shot over the past two games, hitting just 11 of 34 from the field. He might be wise to reduce his 3-point shooting, as he’s now under 30 percent from beyond the arc. That part of his game is why I’m reluctant to go all-in on him. In the case of Kristaps Porzingis ($8000 DK), I think he’ll rise to the challenge of having Davis guarding him. That should be a game within a game. The Mavs’ offensive success has also been sparked by Delon Wright ($5200), who has been a pleasant surprise as a part-time starter. I am interested to see how much we get from Dwight Powell tonight. I’m not suggesting Powell ($3800 DK), but he’s worth a look for the long haul.
Stud — Porzingis. Dud — Maxi Kleber ($4000 DK). Sleeper — Wright.
Utah at Sacramento, 10:00 PM Eastern
To the shock of no one, the Jazz rank near the bottom in pace, sitting 27th overall. Who cares, really, when you lead the league in defensive rating? However, they are 25th in offensive rating, so the pickings are rather slim here.
Donovan Mitchell ($8300 FD) is scoring 24 points per game, but his FDP continues to dip. Rudy Gobert has had one big game surrounded by three bad outings, as at $8,300 (FD), he’s a bit too much to risk on, even against a thin Kings front court. Mike Conley ($6900 FD) comes off his best game to date as his assists totals begin a stead climb up. Bojan Bagdanovic ($5100 FD) has sleeper potential, especially if this game gets out of hand. Joe Ingles ($5100 FD) has produced three decent games of DFS totals after opening the season with just 9.6 FDP.
Stud — Mitchell. Dud — Conley. Sleeper — Bagdanovic
The Kings are last in offensive rating, while their pace is 20th overall. A defensive rating ranked 27th in the league is going to leave them wide open for exploitation.
There just isn’t a lot to be encouraged about. Marvin Bagley III ($7900 FD) is out until the end of the month. Buddy Hield ($6500 FD) couldn’t hit water on a consistent basis even if you pushed him to the edge of the Pacific Ocean. De’Aaron Fox ($8500 FD) is starting to put it together, but this is a matchup I wouldn’t play him in. This game feels like like it will be in the mid-to-high 90s, and I get the sense Fox’s recent upswing is going to hit a Utah-sized speed bump. I’ve always been a fan of Nemanja Bjelica ($4800 FD). Can someone tell me where I can find Harrison Barnes ($5400 FD). Right now, the only Kings player to rely on is Richaun Holmes ($6500 FD). That’s saying a lot.
Stud — Holmes. Dud — Hield. Sleeper — Bjelica.
San Antonio at Golden State, 10:30 PM Eastern
Pay attention to how the Spurs play this. Chances are good someone (we see you, LaMarcus Aldridge) will sit since the Spurs are playing back-to-back games. This matchup against the Warriors certainly lacks the star power and “Oooh, let me make sure I’m watching” appeal that it once did.
The Spurs are 11th in offensive rating and 13th in defensive rating. They’re also ninth in pace, which blends well with the Warriors, who are fifth. At $7100 (DK), Aldridge is a nice play, provided he does suit up. I am all over Dejounte Murray, who is becoming one of my favorite players to watch. I’m putting Murray ($6400 DK) in a host of my lineups tonight because he’s going to exploit a Warriors backcourt that won’t have Stephen Curry in it. Pairing him and DeMar DeRozan ($7200 DK) is also an option worth considering.
Stud — Murray. Dud — Jakob Poeltl ($3300 FD). Sleeper — Derrick White ($5200).
Curry ($9600 DK) and Kevon Looney ($4900 DK) are both out. That means opportunity abounds for a host of young faces who are going to have to carry the shell of the now-departed dynasty. The Warriors have had pride in their defense. Not so much these days, as their 118.1 defensive rating is last in the league.
Obviously, this is Draymond Green ($7700 DK) leading the way. He’s going to have some huge usage with Curry out. D’Angelo Russell ($8900 DK) is also going to become a usage monster over the next few weeks. I like the upside of Eric Paschall ($4700 DK), who has massive sleeper potential. The same can be said for Glenn Robinson III ($4000 DK) and Marquese Chriss ($3200 DK), both of who will see more minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Willie Cauley-Stein ($4500 DK) gets the start tonight.
Stud — Green. Dud — Chriss. Sleeper — Paschall.
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Most Fantasy Points
Jayson Tatum — Averages 41.1 Fantasy points per game at DraftKings.
Mitchell Robinson — Underachieving a bit at 26.8 FP at DraftKings, but is due for a breakout performance.
RJ Barrett — The rookie has been a revelation thus far, putting up 33.7 FP at DraftKings.
Verdict — I’ll put my neck out there and go with Barrett.
