Baseball’s over, kiddies, so the 10/31 NBA DFS Game Previews & Prop Bets will have your undivided attention. It’s just a three-game slate, so the diamond withdrawal will come slowly.
Miami at Atlanta, 7:00 PM Eastern
The Heat are a surprising seventh in points per game (118). More surprising is they are third in pace at 107.8, trailing only the Rockets (no shock) and Grizzlies (now be shocked). Miami is just 15th in offensive rating and head into Atlanta to face a Hawks team that is playing better defensively than advertised, as they are 10th in defensive rating.
This should be a good matchup for Jimmy Butler, who is playing in just his second game of the season. Bam Adebayo is also a solid play; both are the only Heat players with Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) better than 20. The opposite is with Justise Winslow, whose PER is far worse (10.49) than expected. Not to worry, though: Winslow is out tonight. Rookie Tyler Herro is getting a lot of minutes with little true bang for the buck, but this is a good matchup that favors him.
I don’t feel good about Goran Dragic, who I feel is a bit overrated even in a bench role, but in a three-game slate, the options are limited. He’ll get his share of ownership. With Butler back and his track record of high usage rates (27.5 in his season debut), everyone has to follow his lead.
Putting it Bluntly: It’s Butler and Adebayo. Oh, wait…you’re waiting for other names? Keep waiting.
The Hawks are living a charmed life in that Trae Young’s MRI on his injured ankle delivered good news, but they will be without him for tonight’s game. That means 38.2% of usage is up for grabs. Evan Turner has a bad Achilles and will be a game time decision, so it means that rookies Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter and Tyrone Wallace will have an opportunity to eat away at those minutes.
John Collins is the easy play here, but Jabari Parker is an interesting sleeper that I am tempted to add in a lineup or two as his minutes will get a boost in the wake of Young’s absence. Wallace’s 25.82 PER is the result of 14 garbage minutes, but he’s going to get a chance to see what he can do since Young is out until next week. Hunter, Alex Len and Reddish each have PERs under 10. That’s three members of your starting five. It’s going to get awfully ugly without Young, who’s going to really define the phrase Most Valuable Player.
Atlanta is 24th in offensive rating with Young in the lineup. Let that fester for a moment.
Putting it Bluntly: You are a sadist if you’re playing Showdown with this game. Without Young, the Hawks are going to look more like a solid ACC squad than an actual NBA team.
No Jokic, No Cry for Your DFS Lineup
Denver at New Orleans, 8:30 PM Eastern
Thus far, the Nuggets look like they’re sleepwalking into the season. Denver is 22nd in scoring but sixth in scoring defense, making them look a more flashy version of the Jazz. Actually, that’s an insult to Utah since the Nuggets are dead last in pace at 96.1.
Look, I heart Nikola Jokic like the next DFSer, but looking at them on Tuesday made me feel like I was watching a game in the late 1990s (ie, the apex of the NBA’s “Dead Ball” era). I won’t have to worry about that since the Nuggets will sit him out tonight. That means lots of Mason Plumlee, and I would be in.
Since this is a three-game slate, I suppose we have to consider some Nuggets. I like Jamaal Murray as the best option to play, and I do feel good about Paul Millsap. Both are moderately priced and you figure the Nuggets will get their offensive act together. Will Barton is also a nice play here now that he’s grabbing boards to go along with his offense.
Putting it Bluntly: Jokic will break out. It just won’t be tonight.
That the Pelicans are 28th in defensive rating should be encouraging to run with the Nuggets tonight, but New Orleans is also fourth in pace, so the bet here is that they will make the Nuggets dance to their beat. They’ll have Jrue Holiday back in the lineup after he missed the past two games, but it’s doubtful Derrick Favors will go tonight with a sore right knee.
Brandon Ingram is going to be a star, and his first four games are showing why I think that. Freed from the circus in LA, he’s also in a system that’s allowing his skills to manifest. He’s not quite an every game add, but I’ll want him in the bulk of my lineups tonight. This is also a good play for Lonzo Ball, as he and Jamaal Murray will make this fun if the pace is in favor of the Pelicans. Josh Hart returns to the bench after filling in for Holiday the past two games.
I’d really love to see more Jaxon Hayes, who looked impressive in his only game played. May not happen tonight, but he’s got some interesting tools I’d love to see more of.
Putting it Bluntly: Play Ingram. I really hope the Pelicans make the Nuggets get out of their comfort zone and make them play a more uptempo style.
Saying Hi to Kawhi
San Antonio at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM
Fifth in offensive rating, the Spurs are also seventh in pace. This is a well-balanced team SA has put together, one that has a pair of big guns to bolster a DFS roster along with a handful of players that can be productive in nights where there is a short slate of games. Lookie here, tonight is one of those nights.
LaMarcus Aldridge is 34, but looks like a 27-year-old with the way he’s playing thus far. I’d certainly want him tonight. DeMar DeRozan has looked like DeMar DeRozan over the past couple of games, but the player to grab is Dejounte Murray. Injuries have limited him early in his career, but we’re starting to see why the Spurs had no problem letting the door split on Tony Parker when he left last year. Murray is hitting near 30 in PER with a usage rate of 29. His strong start isn’t a fluke. This is a future All-Star.
Jakob Poeltl serves his purpose. He’s nasty, physical and has a nice R/40 rate. However, Trey Lyles would be a better fit for the offense. That a player with freakish talent like Lyles has yet to get a legit shot is beyond me. Place him on a slag team and Lyles would be getting 28-30% usage. Rudy Gay is just Rudy Gay: solid and damn unappreciated. Bryn Forbes is also an interesting play here.
Putting it Bluntly: I smell some stacking here.
Since Kawhi Leonard sat out on Wednesday, he’ll be more than ready to take on his old team tonight. Only the Rockets have a better offensive rating than the Clippers, but they are 25th in defensive rating. The Clippers run a slower pace than the Spurs, as they are 19th compared to San Antonio’s seventh-place spot in the category.
Lou Williams is scoring at nearly 23 points per game without playing more than 29 minutes per night. Montrezl Harrell got into foul trouble in Wednesday’s loss to the Jazz, playing only 14 minutes. There’s some gold in Ivica Zubac, but we’re not going to so long as he and Harrell are sharing minutes at the 5. JaMychal Green looked solid on Wednesday, but won’t be much of a factor with Leonard in the lineup.
Patrick Patterson, Landry Shamet and Patrick Beverley are each below 10 in PER. That’s unnerving when 3/5ths of your lineup is playing at the level of a back of the bench player.
Putting it Bluntly: It’s Leonard’s show. The bench is actually carrying the Clippers, though.
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Over/Under
Goran Dragic — Averaging 19.3 points per game off the bench, Dragic is looking like the Eastern Conference version of Lou Williams.
Jabari Parker — He’s managing just 2.8 rebounds per game, but Parker will be needed to help fill the void left by the injury to Trae Young. That will mean more minutes off the bench.
Verdict — Take the under on Dragic, but take the over on Parker.
