jason mezrahi In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/29 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.
These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware!
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NBA DFS 2/29 — PG
James Harden, HOU (@ BOS) – DK $10,900
Harden reignited his rivalry with Giannis Antetokounmpo in a sit-down interview with Rachel Nichols and will be looking to back up his claims tonight in a highly anticipated Leap Year Special with the Celtics. The Bearded One is essentially matchup-proof and dropped 42 real-life points (and 67 DK points) against Boston on Feb. 11. It’s weird to say he could be overlooked, but there is a bunch of interesting SG plays today and we can sneak Harden in at PG – where he’s priced a little bit higher than Trae Young and has more consistent upside. I’ll probably build about half of my GPP lineups around Harden in anticipation of lower ownership than usual and very little chance of a blowout. Trae is a fine pivot against the Blazers, but my HOU-BOS game stacks won’t be using any of the PG-eligible Celtic guards.
Pivot: Trae Young
NBA DFS 2/29 — SG
C.J. McCollum, POR (@ ATL) – DK $9,200
I really don’t care that McCollum is $9,200, because he should be over $10K, especially in a matchup with the Hawks that could see another monster game total. McCollum’s usage with the current Portland starters is a whopping 34% and he’s scored 50 or more DK points in there of his last four – the one outlier being a 43.25 DK outing against the defensively-minded Pacers. As chief playmaker for this Portland team (which is fighting with a slew of other squads in the Western Conference to snag the last playoff spot), he’s going to have to bring it every night until Damian Lillard returns. I’m fading the likely popular DeMar DeRozan at $7,600 in a low-total game against the Magic that’s guaranteed to fall well short of last night’s madness from a pace perspective, but I don’t mind taking a crack at Bryn Forbes ($3,200) when he’s easily got 8x to 10x upside as one of the Spurs primary three-point shooters and getting about 20-25 minutes. The best non-punt value pivot is probably Jaylen Brown – who was nursing ankle injuries the last time Boston faced the Rockets and is expensive enough at $6,900 to ward off high ownership. Smart is cheaper but doesn’t have the same offensive upside.
Pivot/Punt: Jaylen Brown or MarcusSmart/Bryn Forbes
NBA DFS 2/29 — SF
Mikal Bridges, PHO (vs. GSW) – DK $5,200
With Kelly Oubre out for the year, Bridges (SG/SF/G/F/UTIL) has been seeing more minutes and draws a great matchup tonight against the Warriors – who struggle to defend 3&D wings like Mikal. Cam Johnson sustained an “upper-body” injury after a fall in last night’s contest that eaves him questionable for tonight’s matchup, so we could see Bridges play a bit more with the second unit as well. He’s a solid GPP option on a night where he might go overlooked and makes for a good bargain wing to include in your lineups. DraftKings lists very few SF-only players and I doubt Bridges will see much ownership with so many stud SGs (like Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan) and PFs (Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward) eligible at SF. Bridges may not have a 50-point upside like those guys, but he’s got around a 45-point ceiling and his floor comes up with the new injury to Johnson. Cam Reddish has a great motor and has been playing well, so he’s a fine pivot for a few bucks less. If Andrew Wiggins actually plays tonight, he’d make a fine stacking option – though I’m a little worried about the game blowing out.
Pivot/Stack:Cam Reddish/Andrew Wiggins
NBA DFS 2/29 — PF
Carmelo Anthony, POR (@ ATL) – DK $5,700
Carmelo is another important part of Blazers-Hawks game stacks and should be a lot busier offensively than he was at Indiana two nights ago. He’s 9-for-21 from three-point range over his last four games, including the 0-for-0 in Thursday’s loss. Melo’s in a good spot against a team that gives up big fantasy points to versatile forwards, but I’ll be pivoting down a bit for some more value in quite a few builds to Kyle Kuzma at just $4,600. Kuzma has 8x to 10x upside in a possibly LeBron-less game against Memphis where he could see 30 minutes. Game stackers should consider De’Andre Hunter, who will be playing a lot of 4 against Melo. Anthony Davis is going to drawn higher ownership, but I have some concerns, so I’m fading him. At his price, I like other guys better and if he beats me, he beats me.
Pivot/Stack: Kyle Kuzma/De’Andre Hunter
NBA DFS 2/29 — C
Marquese Chriss, GSW (@ PHO) – DK $5,400
If we played a lot of the high-value options at guard and forward, we need to find some value at C, and I’m looking no further than Chriss, who was a dud against the dominant frontcourt the Lakers threw at him. The former “Marquese de Phoenix” (I just made that up) might put up a show against the weak defense played by the Suns’ bigs, so I’m embracing the inherent risk of him not getting more than 30 minutes and focusing on his 8x upside in just 25-30 minutes. He’s a great option in Suns-Warriors stacks along with Wiggins, and the best pivot in his price range is probably Myles Turner. One punt option that stands out is ATL power big Bruno Fernando, who’s just $3,500 on DK and has been playing minutes in the 20s now. He’s got 10x upside against a team that ranks low in defensive efficiency against big men. But I have no qualms about making Bam Adebayo your center. I’m done fading that guy and will be using him in lineups where I haven’t blown my salary on guards.
