jason mezrahi In this column, I’ll highlight five NBA DFS 2/27 difference-makingplays in GPPs, from studs with a huge upside to value plays who could hit8x-10x.
These are risky plays who won’t always make the most sense forcash game builds, so buyer beware! We’ve got a four-game slate today that’sperfect for finding some obvious value plays and plugging in high-upside playsthat could bring us the big bucks!
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NBA DFS 2/27 — PG
Rajon Rondo, LAL (@ GSW) – DK $3,500
The elite range of PGs on DraftKings is decimated, and LeBron James won’t play tonight because of a groin injury. The only PG-eligible option above $8K is C.J. McCollum, and we’ll cover him in a second at SG. If Rondo starts, he’s a lock at just $3,500 with a 40-point upside. With LBJ off the court this season, the biggest usage bump goes to Anthony Davis, but Rondo actually sees the highest fantasy points increase among the projected starting five. He’ll be chalky, but on a four-game slate, who isn’t? The Lakers have the highest implied team total of the night, and a game stack here makes sense. IF we’re spending up we can look no further than IND PG Malcolm Brogdon and his boosted usage, but I like the idea of Jordan Poole on the other side of this Lakers-Warriors game, and the obvious value pivot in the Rondo range is PHI point guard Shake Milton.
Spend/Pivot/Stack: Malcolm Brogdon/Shake Milton/Jordan Poole
NBA DFS 2/27 — SG
C.J. McCollum, POR (@ IND) – DK $9,000
Damian Lillard is still out, and McCollum I still $9K, so we’ll be locking him in as well tonight. We’ve seen 75-point upside from the Blazers guard already, and a 50-point floor. The super-contrarian move would be a pivot to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but we can make room for him at the other SG spot on FanDuel and the G or UTIL positions on DK. The Pacers are a solid defensive team, but I’m not going to overthink this. I’d prefer using the Pacers forwards in-game stacks, but I do like finding room for PHI SG/SF Furkan Korkmaz at home vs. the Knicks and their awful second unit. He could have another 8x -10x game with so many of the Sixers’ scorers out.
Pivot/Value: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander/FurkanKorkmaz
NBA DFS 2/27 — SF
T.J. Warren, IND (vs. POR) – DK $6,000
Is today 8x day for T.J. Warren?We’ve seen him get there when he gets a good matchup and 35 minutes of run –which is a possibility tonight (with Jeremy Lamb out for the season with a tornACL and Victor Oladipo questionable) unless the Pacers blow out Portland.Unless you’re fading this game altogether, I don’t see a reason to avoid sharesof Warren in a smash spot. We can pivot to Danilo Gallinari or find some valuein the SF-eligible Korkmaz, but I really like going back to Danny Green inanother solid matchup where he’ll play more three and should see around 30minutes at just $3,700 on DK.
Pivot/Value:Danilo Gallinari/Danny Green
NBA DFS 2/27 — PF
Anthony Davis, LAL (@ GSW) – DK $10,300
AD is listed as probable and the elbow is a real concern following a little scare late in Tuesday night’s game – but maybe that will help to keep his GPP ownership down under 60 percent. The pivot (if he’s ruled out) would be Domantas Sabonis (PF/C/F/UTIL) in a great matchup against his dad’s old team, but we probably wouldn’t get that notification before the Pacers and Blazers lock at 8 PM EST. I’ll probably make lineups with both guys in there Tonight is a time to be fearless – but not stupid. Don’t go through too much bankroll investing in tonight’s slate, because the sharks could be covering a lot more of the angles in large-field GPPs and doing a better job accounting for AD-related revisions in max builds. Kyle Kuzma is the value option of note, and I’m not really interested in any of the Golden State bigs against this Lakers’ frontcourt.
Pivot/Value: Domantas Sabonis/Kyle Kuzma
NBA DFS 2/27 — C
Steven Adams, OKC (vs. SAC) – DK $6,800
I’ve been pleased with Steven Adams lately, which is surprising because he tends to underperform when he’s chalky. Tonight, he should dominate a thoroughly depleted Kings frontcourt on both ends, providing 7x to 8x upside at a relatively affordable price along with a decent floor. I wouldn’t slight you for spending up to worthwhile pivot and shot-blocking extraordinaire Hassan Whiteside (who the Blazers will need to play big minutes to defend Sabonis), but I’m not interested in the new price for Harry Giles on the other side of this OKC-SAC game. Julius Randle also has a solid upside at just $7,800 facing a Sixers team that is likely without Joel Embiid. If you absolutely need to find a cheap center, I suppose you could give Alex Len a shot at just $3,300 on DK, but only if we get word he’s starting – since he could end up seeing bigger minutes than Giles against Adams.
