Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3
As things stand right now, we have a big 10 game slate and we’re almost to the All-Star Break. We also could have a massive piece of injury news as Luka Doncic is listed as questionable, which opens up all sorts of avenues. Let’s dig into what we like and what we want to target in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 and find those green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 Injury Report
Pacers – Jeremy Lamb, Doug McDermott (Q)
Sixers – Tobias Harris (Q)
Pistons – Jerami Grant (Q)
Raptors – Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby (O)
Nets – KD (O), Jeff Green, TLC (Q)
Rockets – Christian Wood, David Nwaba (O), Eric Gordon, Danuel House (Q)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (O), Gordon Hayward, Cody Zeller (O)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Cam Reddish (Q)
Magic – Evan Fournier (Q), James Ennis (O)
Thunder – Hamidou Diallo, George Hill (O)
Mavericks – Luka, Willie Cauley-Stein (Q)
Lakers – Marc Gasol (O), Kyle Kuzma was out last night. LeBron James OUT.
Pelicans – Tyrese Haliburton, Hassan Whiteside (O), Buddy Hield (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 Positions
Point Guard
Steph Curry ($9,900 DK/$9,900 FD) – We all love the late-night hammer and Curry is under $10,000 on both sites. That’s good enough and the Blazers give up a three-point attempt almost 40% of the time. We then have the Narrative of Steph against Dame, as they share similar traits as players. Steph is all the way up to a 1.45 FPPM and a 31.5% usage rate on the season on top of everything else. Portland is 28th in defensive rating and a player of Curry’s caliber can light them up. Just look at what LaMelo Ball did last game when he dropped 60 DK.
Kyle Lowry ($8,100 DK/$8,200 FD) – I would think that Curry is going to be more of a GPP pick because the field will gravitate towards Lowry. Toronto is very short-handed tonight without FVV and Siakam on the offensive end, meaning Lowry has the entire offense on his shoulders. What’s interesting is the FPPM is relatively stagnant at 1.18 but the usage skyrockets by 8.2% to 29.5%. The true shooting is at 55.5% which isn’t that bad but the matchup against Dennis Smith and the Pistons backcourt is pristine. Lowry rocks an assist rate over 45% in this scenario and I would think is a bedrock of cash builds tonight.
Dennis Schroeder ($5,900 DK/$5,500 FD) – With AD still out, Schroeder still should get plenty of love in this spot. He’s under $6,000 and draws one of the best matchups we get in the Sacramento Kings (+4). They still rank eighth in pace and dead last in defensive rating. With the Lakers all the way down at 23rd in pace, this is an elite spot for Schroeder to show off his scoring skills. LeBron James can’t do it all and now they are down Marc Gasol as well. That leaves Schroeder with a 24.6% usage and a 1.05 FPPM over 140 minutes, which is perfect against the Kings. Honorable Mention – Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, LaMelo Ball, Michael Carter-Williams
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($11,000 DK/$11,200 FD) – There’s going to be a ton of value in this game with the Rockets short-handed and the Raptors, so don’t overthink this one. Play. James. Harden. It’s the first time he’s back in Houston after dogging his way out. He’s going to show off as much as he possibly can. If you’ve read my stuff for a while, you know narratives aren’t my thing at all. There are some that even I cannot ignore and this is it. I will be totally shocked if he’s not the biggest chalk on the slate. Unless he’s projected for zero ownership, he needs to be in the cash build end of the discussion in my eyes.
Anthony Edwards ($6,900 DK/$6,400 FD) – Edwards is a fascinating candidate tonight. I believe I’d only play him in cash settings on FD since I need two. On DK, that price is scary but there’s a catch. He’s shot 24-64 over the past three games and not dipped below 35 DK. If Edwards hits a game where the shot really falls, he could shatter this price tag. The sheer volume of shots right now is impressive enough and the usage is up to 32.5% in the Wolves’ current situation. He’s going to have a monster game sooner or later and I’m here for it against the Hornets as both teams are in the top 12 in pace.
DeAndre Bembry ($3,700 DK/$3,800 FD) – Writing the night before means this is a bit of a leap of faith. It should also be noted that Bembry is only SF on DK. Since the Raptors are so thin, Bembry will almost surely start and play big minutes. He has an 82-minute sample size in this current situation and also has a 0.95 FPPM. I’m not fully counting on that since the true shooting is over 73% but I’m approaching it in this way – Bembry + Harden should get you at least 80 fantasy points. That’s around a floor of 5.5x at their salaries with room for over 6x. That’s what we’re looking for every night.
Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FD mostly), Terry Rozier (if Hayward is out), Gary Trent, Sterling Brown
Small Forward
Norman Powell ($6,700 DK/$6,300 FD) – So there are a couple of notes here. First, you can absolutely go with Brandon Ingram. He is in a smash spots, to say the least (we’ll get into the Pelicans spot in a minute) and Ingram is underpriced. Secondly, we’re starting with Powell because I believe he could be the chalkiest play of the slate and I won’t bring up the Raptors anymore. The other aspect here – with LeBron James OUT – it could push THT ($3.4K) into another chalky forward option.
Powell has played about 40 minutes with the current Raptors spot and he’s sporting a massive 33.2% usage rate. Someone other than Lowry has to score tonight and they should be neck and neck for being the primary scorer tonight. They’re both going to have a usage over 30% and you can easily play 2-3 Raptors in cash tonight.
Note – We need some news with Luka before deciding what path to take for this position. Josh Richardson would be a smash play at just $4,600 on FD. Granted, the FPPM looks rough at just 0.61 but the usage is nearly 20% and the true shooting is pitiful at 44.2%. If Luka plays, we can just rock Powell and Ingram and potentially be done with things.
Honorable Mention – Evan Fournier (if active), Malik Monk (if Hornets are down to 8-9 players)
Power Forward
Zion Williamson ($9,100 DK/$8,900 FD) – It can be argued that last game was the toughest spot Zion could have since he faced off against Rudy Gobert in the paint. All Zion did was hang 26/10/5 on him and the Jazz and the matchup gets way easier tonight. We pick on the Bulls constantly and Zion is up to over eight paint points per game. Chicago is 29th in paint points allowed and Zion should totally dominate inside. He and Ingram score roughly 50 of 115 Pelican points per night, meaning we can play them both as they both sit over a 27% usage rate on the year. The pace the Bulls play at will do nothing but help Zion go Hulk Smash tonight.
Marvin Bagley ($6,600 DK/$6,200 FD) – I’m slightly gun shy on DK but the FD price is much more palatable. Luke Walton is a (to be polite) not great head coach and doesn’t always play Bagley as much as he should. When he does, Bagley typically smashes and this spot might be better than it appears. Not only is Anthony Davis not there to stop him, but Marc Gasol is out as well. I like Montrezl Harrell as a player but he’s not a defender to fear. Bagley continues to sport a 23.5% usage rate and a 1.05 FPPM, making him a nice play at an iffy position tonight.
Nicholas Claxton ($3,300 DK/$4,100 FD) – I’ve taken to calling him Speedy Claxton in Discord after the Rob and Big episode where they name a turtle Speedy Claxton. He’s a C-only player on DK but is still near minimum price. that’s a mistake and Claxton was just under 18 minutes last game. If Jeff Green is in, maybe we back off here but Houston has no presence at the center position. Even in very limited minutes, Claxton could pile up the points in a hurry. He’s only played four games but has a 21% usage and a 1.25 FPPM. He’s well worth the small risk at this price if Green is out. Even if he’s in, I’m going to be tempted.
Honorable Mention – Domantas Sabonis, Kristaps Porzingis (only if Luka is out for cash games), Draymond Green, Chris Boucher
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($10,000 DK/$9,700 FD) – The cash move will very likely not be spending up at center but if we do, KAT is that man for me. He draws the Charolette frontcourt that we love to pick on and KAT is at a 1.44 FPPM right now. His usage continues to hover around 32% and the Hornets are 20th in rebounding and 28th in points allowed in the paint. This is a total smash spot for the big man, although as I mentioned I doubt we need him in cash games.
Al Horford ($6,300 DK/$6,200 FD) – I will always be upfront and I’ll tell you right now, I hate playing Horford. He’s the definition of a boring play and I won’t use him unless I feel like I have to for cash. Just like KAT I have a feeling that’s not going to be the case tonight. The move is likely punting (we’re getting there) so Horford won’t fit. However, if the field does go to him it is a good spot. Dallas has little interior presence and no player on the Thunder has a higher FPPM than Horford’s 1.27. Even the usage rate is over 24% so he can be on the radar, but I’m not attached at all.
Justin Patton ($4,000 DK/$3,800 FD) – After Powell, Lowry, and Harden, Patton will most likely be a top-five chalk play tonight. We actually could be looking at the Cash Core in those four players. Patton only has five games under his belt so far but in the past two games, he’s been on the court for 26 and 31 minutes. In that time, he’s produced at least 20 fantasy points and this is among the best spot he could have. Its centers against Brooklyn and Patton has a 0.84 FPPM so far. With the Nets 25th in paint points allowed, this is a phenomenal spot to play Patton and follow the field tonight.
Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Nikola Vucevic, Mason Plumlee, Wendell Carter
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
