Adam Strangis We’ve had a nice run of reasonably sized slates lately but that comes to an end tonight. There are 11 games on the hardwood tonight and that can be overwhelming. It’s best to narrow down the pool and pretend at least some games don’t exist. Let’s not waste any more time and get right down to business in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/24 and start laying our foundation!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/24 Injury Report
Pistons – Hamidou Diallo, Rodney McGruder (O), Wayne Ellington (Q)
Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner (Q)
Nuggets – Monte Morris, Gary Harris (Q)
Celtics – Jayson Tatum, Tristan Thompson (Q)
Bucks – Giannis Antetokounmpo, PJ Tucker, Bryn Forbes (Q)
Hornets – LaMelo Ball (O), Cody Zeller (Q)
Rockets – Kevin Porter (Q)
Magic – Terrence Ross (Q)
Cavaliers – Kevin Love (O)
Thunder – Lu Dort, Al Horford (Q)
Clippers – Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly (O)
Spurs – Lonnie Walker (O)
Nets – Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Landry Shamet (O)
Hawks – Danilo Gallinari (Q), Cam Reddish (O)
Kings – Marvin Bagley (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/24 Positions
Point Guard
NOTE – Please keep in mind this is the last slate before the trade deadline. We should expect chaos tonight so be prepared and manage the bankroll accordingly.
Luka Doncic ($11,000 DK/$11,000 FD) – I’m not sure if we can realistically fade James Harden regardless of his spot but if there’s a player that can match Harden’s appeal it’s Luka tonight. He has been on a tear culminating in 53 DK points in not even 30 minutes last game. We all know that the Wolves can’t play defense and this is an amazing spot. Not only are they 26th in defensive rating, but Karl Anthony-Towns is also a very poor defender individually. It just so happens that Luka drives the second-most times in the league and he’s going to be able to get wherever he wants to tonight.
Mike Conley ($6,300 DK/$5,800 FD) – He’s a mainstay in the cash column and that certainly won’t change tonight. Brooklyn will play slower than normal since it will be more of Harden in the isolation game but they’ll still play fast. Utah isn’t the snail pace team they used to be as they sit 16th and Conley is still around a 23% usage rate. The last game saw him score 27 DK but he only shot 5-12 from the field and he only played 29 minutes. There’s plenty of room for the floor/ceiling combo for Conley against Brooklyn in a back-to-back situation.
Tomas Satoransky ($4,600 DK/$4,800 FD) – Since Sato has entered the starting lineup, he’s really only had one dud out of six games. That’s a pretty strong ratio for a player at his price point. When we look at the role for Sato in that time, he has a 15.2% usage rate and a 0.91 FPPM. That’s exceedingly solid and he’s second on the team with a 27% usage rate. Cleveland doesn’t play at a fast pace but they rank 24th in defensive rating. That’s plenty poor enough and Sato playing against Collin Sexton/Darius Garland defense is good enough for me.
Honorable Mention – I love the De’Aaron Fox and Trae Young combo for the late-night hammer. I don’t believe either will be that popular for cash, however. I also like John Wall (especially if Oladipo is traded), Kyle Lowry, and Terry Rozier.
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($10,900 DK/$11,300 FD) – His price fell by $100 on DK. He remains the only star in the Nets lineup currently and has every chance at 75 DK points or more. It might be an 11 game slate but don’t overthink this one at all. Plug him into every cash game and move on. With a slate this size, it’ll be even easier to find value tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300 DK/$7,000 FD) – I likely don’t need to use SGA on DK but the FD price is crazy low and I’m looking to take advantage if I can pair him with Harden. He’s coming off 47 FD points and yet the price is still just $7,000 flat. Nobody on the Thunder really gets that close to the usage that Gilgeous-Alexander displays at 34.1% without George Hill on the floor. Only Al Horford gets close to the 1.30 FPPM that Shai has and even then, Horford has been rested an awful lot lately and is no guarantee to play. With Memphis sitting eighth in pace, this is a wonderful spot for SGA.
Marcus Smart ($5,900 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’m not buying the Celtics are actually going to deal Smart before the deadline so my fear with him is minimal. The Bucks play at a top-five pace in the league so these are the types of games I like trying to play Smart. I will say that Bruce Brown is also a very strong option at the same price on FD and he’s cheaper on DK but don’t sleep on Smart. He’s off the minutes limit and has played at least 32 minutes in the past three games. Boston has to start making moves so Smart will get everything he can handle and fill the stat sheet with a 0.91 FPPM on the year.
Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Zach LaVine, Fred VanVleet
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($9,000 DK/$9,500 FD) – He’s a tad cheap on both sites and you can talk about the “revenge” factor if you’d like. Kawhi has played the Spurs seven times and has three games over 55 DK, three over 40 and his first one was under 40. It doesn’t appear that Kawhi carries anything extra in this matchup but he’s appealing regardless. He’s still leading the Clipper with a 29.6% usage rate and a 1.31 FPPM. Now we add in that the Spurs have the 15th ranked pace in the league and that’s still an upgrade for the Clippers who are bottom-five. The Spurs and the Clippers are also right next to each other in rebounding at 12th and 13th, so Kawhi will help in that factor as well.
Gordon Hayward ($7,900 DK/$7,000 FD) – If you’re not going after Kawhi, Hayward makes an awful lot of sense. In the first game with LaMelo Ball sidelined, Hayward went back to being a fantasy monster with well over 40 FD points. He was in the neighborhood for a triple-double and leads the team with a 1.11 FPPM. That’s to go along with a true shooting rate that is high at 62.3% but the usage is going to carry him regardless. Houston is playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the league and is 1-20 in their last 21 games.
Justise Winslow ($3,900 DK/$4,200 FD) – I’m betting we get plenty of other value for the slate but right now Winslow is still an option. He’s seen the minutes get dialed back up to 22 and that’s a green light for his usage off the bench. Since he’s come back into the Grizzlies lineup Winslow has featured a 22.5% usage and a 0.84 FPPM. If he can find his shot, Winslow is going to smash this price point one of these nights. His true shooting is under 40% and if he can cross 20 DK points on that poor of shooting, it has to come around at some point.
Honorable Mention – Michael Porter Jr., Larry Nance, OG Anunoby
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,400 DK/$8,800 FD) – I don’t care if Brogdon is back or not, this is a smash spot for Sabonis and he’s very fairly priced. We talked last time about him still possessing a ceiling even with Brogdon and Caris LeVert active, having three games over 50 DK since then. He would have made it four if the Pacers hadn’t gotten blown off the floor last game. Detroit is 25th in rebounding so that’s advantage Sabonis and he can take advantage in the paint as well. The combo of Isaiah Stewart and Mason Plumlee won’t be able to hang with Sabonis and I love him in this spot.
P.J. Washington ($6,000 FD) – I’m not interested in Washington on DK as the price is super high. FD is a different story as he’s only $6,000 flat and gets the same pace spot that we talked about with Hayward. Houston is also bottom-five in rebounding and that should increase the chances Washington has for a double-double. He sees just about an extra 1% in usage without LaMelo which isn’t a ton. However, the 0.98 FPPM makes it work at this price tag and he’s safe for what you’re spending.
Daniel Theis ($5,000 DK/$5,300 FD) – With Thompson still out for the Celtics, Theis stands to benefit. First off, he’ll just have more secure minutes and he hasn’t dipped below 25 in the past handful of games while TT has been out. He’s played as many as 32 and even though the matchup looks tough, Theis has thrived in those lately. He bodied Rudy Gobert and Nikola Vucevic to the tune of 39 and 36 DK points. They’re going to need his size against Greek and Brook Lopez, leading me to think he’s a rock-solid pick at the respective salaries.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, Pascal Siakam (look for Kyle Lowry or Norman Powell to potentially be dealt), Lauri Markkanen
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DK/$10,800 FD) – You could accuse me of being angry I missed on the Big Honey triple-double last night and you’d be accurate in that assessment. Regardless of my anger, this is another amazing spot for the MVP front-runner. Toronto is 24th in paint points allowed and dead last in rebounding. We all like Chris Boucher and his potential, but he absolutely cannot deal with Jokic down low. Denver is pushing for seeding out West and we just were reminded Joker is a triple-double threat and 70 DK points any given night. If we can reasonably fit Joker and a player like Harden, I’m all for it.
Clint Capela ($7,300 DK/$7,200 FD) – Atlanta has been featuring John Collins a bit more lately but this spot is too good for Capela to pass up at these salaries. Capela is one of the premier paint players in the league, with the second-most touches, the most field goal attempts, and the most rebounding chances in the league. You can’t draw up a better game for Capela. Sacramento is 27th in rebounding in total, 25th in paint rebounds, and dead last in paint points allowed. On paper, Capela should be at least $8,000 tonight.
Honorable Mention – KAT, Nikola Vucevic, Jarrett Allen
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/24
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