Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/23
If you ever wanted to know how to define chaos, just look at the Discord from about 8 PM to 9 PM last night. We had all sorts of action with players getting ruled out after lock, which is never fun. Let’s hope we don’t get a repeat of that tonight and have all the pertinent information before tip for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/23!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/23 Injury Report
Nuggets – Monte Morris, Gary Harris (O)
Magic – Terrence Ross (Q), Cole Anthony (O)
Wizards – Davis Bertans (O)
Knicks – Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Mitchell Robinson, Elf Payton (Q)
Lakers – LeBron James, Anthony Davis (O)
Pelicans – Lonzo Ball (Q)
Heat – Goran Dragic (Q)
Sixers – Joel Embiid, Seth Curry (O)
Warriors – Steph Curry (O)
Nets – Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Landry Shamet (O), James Harden (Q)
Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/23 Positions
Point Guard
Ben Simmons ($8,800 DK/$8,200 FD) – I’m leaving off Russell Westbrook because the field will spend up to James Harden if he’s active. If Harden is out, that opens things up a lot more. However, Simmons is an appealing target no matter what. The Sixers are without Embiid and the Warriors are without Steph so I think the game stays close enough. These teams are both top-six in pace and that’s the style of game we should love for Simmons. When Embiid is off the court he’s hovering around a 1.20 FPPM and he’s a sneaky triple-double threat tonight with the Warriors ranking 22nd in rebounding on the season.
Dennis Schroeder ($6,600 DK/$7,000 FD) – Not only is Schroeder going to be one of the primary scoring threats on the Lakers tonight, but he gets the matchup we all love. Guards facing the Pelicans have been a boom for us for the entire season and that should continue tonight. Schroeder struggled with foul trouble of all things last game, picking up five. I doubt that’s an issue tonight and he scored 22 points in just 30 minutes last game. The guard sports a 27.5% usage rate and a 1.09 FPPM on the season without Bron and AD on the floor. This is the perfect spot for him to explode.
Jordan Poole ($5,600 DK/$6,500 FD) – With Curry still being out for the Warriors, we can continue to play Poole even though the prices are getting up there. On FD, I may avoid that salary but DK I’m still more than fine with it. In the past two games without Steph, Poole has played 34 and 38 minutes while recording a total of 16 shot attempts. He’s converted that usage into 25 and 26 real points in those games as well. He and Andrew Wiggins will be the main scoring threats and I would think Simmons defends Wiggins on most possessions, giving Poole an edge.
Honorable Mention – Damian Lillard, Shake Milton
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($11,000 DK/$11,300 FD) – The ONLY and I mean ONLY reason Harden is not in every single lineup tonight is if he’s not active. I’m not sure how to approach it yet if we don’t have news by tip-off but we’ll deal with I when we need to. With Durant and Kyrie off the floor, Harden has a 35.4% usage and a 1.69 FPPM. Do not overthink this one. Harden should be $13,000 on both sites in the situation he’s in tonight. The matchup with Portland who sits 29th in defensive rating is just a bonus.
Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,500 DK/$6,000 FD) – It’s tough to know where to list THT since he’s SF on DK and SG on FD so we’ll settle for SG. Regardless, he’s heavily in play even if he’s playing just 30 minutes per night. He didn’t start last game so don’t panic if he doesn’t again since he and Kyle Kuzma will be the main cogs on the second unit and then mix in with the first. THT is actually higher in both usage and FPPM than Schroder a 28.1% and 1.16. The best part of that is it comes with a 49.1% true shooting rate so if he can hit some more shots, the ceiling is pretty high for the situation.
Bruce Brown ($4,200 DK/$4,000 FD) – The Nets are going to need another ball handler regardless of Harden playing or not. Brown is plenty cheap and he’s got a chance to enter the starting lineup. Even if he doesn’t, the Nets will still need him off the bench in a fairly big way. When Kyrie missed the last game, Brown played 24 minutes and only shot 3-10 from the field but still hit 20 DK points. Given his 0.84 FPPM on the year without Kyrie, I have a significant interest in this matchup.
Honorable Mention – CJ McCollum, Andrew Wiggins (only if he’s projected highly)
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,300 DK/$9,500 FD) – The SF position is not the greatest tonight and there’s a strong argument to be made to just take Jimmy Buckets and the safety. He’s still flirting with a triple-double on seemingly a nightly basis. The wildcard of this play is the status of Goran Dragic. Butler is mostly stagnant with usage at 27% and FPPM at 1.38 but the opportunities will still increase if Dragic is out. Phoenix is 21st in rebounding and that’s going to accentuate the chances for Butler to record at least a double-double in this spot.
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,700 DK/$6,500 FD) – This is pretty interesting. I have a feeling that if folks play in this range, they likely run to Kyle Kuzma. I can’t really argue with that but I would honestly prefer MPJ if just picking straight up. We talked about it last time Denver played but Porter has been excellent lately. The usage is up to 20% on the season matched with a 0.96 FPPM. Orlando is third in rebounding so Porter will need to help on the glass as much as he can. We’re getting one of the three main cogs for a good Denver offense at a very reasonable price.
Rui Hachimura ($6,000 DK/$5,200 FD) – This man simply will not come off the court anymore. You can basically take it to the bank that he’s playing 35 minutes or more and that can be enough at the FD price. I will say I’m not terribly interested in the DK price because the FPPM is only at 0.73. That’s plenty for barely $5,000 and needing two SF but there’s not a ton of need on DK. Sure, New York plays at one of the slowest paces in basketball but Washington takes care of that end of things. Hachimura is going to fall into production with that much court time.
Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Evan Fournier, RJ Barrett
Power Forward
Tobias Harris ($8,500 DK/$8,800 FD) – I wanted to write up Julius Randle against the Wizards and let’s be clear – I love the spot for him. I have to point out that playing Randle and Harden together could be a hair tricky as they’ll account for 40% of the salary cap on DK and over 33% on FD. That’s a lot of money spent on two players so perhaps we can dip down to Harris. I want some type of exposure to the Sixers in this spot since they’re down significant pieces. Harris shot 5-18 last game and still managed to hit 33 DK points. Don’t get me wrong, that’s not a good return for his price tag but I also don’t believe he shoots that poorly again. Harris is honestly typically my go-to when Biid is out as he has a 29% usage rate and a 1.17 FPPM. I expect that in spades tonight.
Aaron Gordon ($6,900 DK/$6,300 FD) – I find myself really digging Gordon tonight. First off, he’s in the trade rumor mill and I could see the Magic trying to feature him just a bit more than normal before Thursday’s deadline. Considering AG has a 27.2% usage and a 1.14 FPPM, he’s already just slightly underpriced. Now we get him in a game environment where Denver is just average in defensive rating and things look up for Gordon. He could see an awful lot of Michael Porter defense and we always like attacking that. There’s definitely a shot at a ceiling performance here. Denver is also giving up a three-point frequency over 41.5% of the time and Gordon is shooting 40% from deep.
Nicholas Claxton ($3,900 DK/$4,600 FD) – It’s still Speedy Claxton SZN even with the addition of Blake Griffin. First off, Blake played about 15 minutes in the first game with the Nets. That’s not going to kill Claxton as he played 26 minutes. Secondly, I think Claxton might just be a better player at this stage. This game represents a green opportunity for him because he’s either going to see Enes Kanter’s defense or the Blazers will just go small and take Kanter off the floor. Either scenario is a good thing for Claxton. The usage is surprising at 18.8% and the FPPM is 1.12 so he’s still pretty cheap in my eyes.
Honorable Mention – Zion Williamson, Bam Adebayo
Center
Dwight Howard ($6,000 DK/$5,400 FD) – One of the goals of this article is to make sure you can build an actual lineup between this, the Discord, and the model from Ghost. Having said that, it doesn’t do a ton of good to talk about Nikola Jokic or Nikola Vucevic. Both of those players are fine plays but we’re planning to spend on Harden. There’s not even a question about the high-end spend on this slate, so let’s talk about the lower tier of the center position because that seems to fit best with Harden.
Howard catches my eye because of centers against Warriors for the most part. It helps that he played 30+ minutes last game and Golden State may or may not have any player to guard Howard down low. James Wiseman and Kevan Looney are not sure to play yet but even if they do, I still like Howard. I mentioned the Warriors are 22nd in rebounding and on top of that they are 26th in paint points given up. Howard averages 5.9 paint touches per game and this spot is phenomenal.
Enes Kanter ($6,400 DK/$5,900 FD) – There are concerns about him getting pulled off the court and the Blazers going small but the center position is weaker outside the elite options. Kanter is at 7.1 paint touches per night and that’s one of the biggest weaknesses Brooklyn has. They are 20th in paint points allowed and have gotten destroyed by big men all season long. Even in lower minutes, Kanter can hit 6x at these salaries and he’s on my shortlist tonight for the position.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
