Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21
My word this slate is star-studded. We’re missing LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, and maybe Ben Simmons. Yet, we still have Luka, Harden, Westbrook, Dame Time, Bradley Beal, and Kyrie. The Lakers are likely to be strong chalk but we’ll get into that and more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 and lay the foundation for the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 Injury Report
Nets – Kevin Durant (O), Jeff Green, Blake Griffin (P)
Cavaliers – JaVale McGee (Q)
Pistons – Hamidou Diallo, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder (O)
Sixers – Joel Embiid, Seth Curry (O), Ben Simmons sat last night so keep an eye on that
Knicks – Immanuel Quickley, Mitchell Robinson, Elf Payton (Q), Derrick Rose (O)
Mavericks – Willie Cauley-Stein, James Johnson (O)
Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Marc Gasol (O)
Let’s talk about the Lakers here instead of each position. I believe there’s a good chance that we could use three players. It’s not the normal route in cash but with them missing such massive pieces of the offense we’ll likely be fine making an exception. We’re going to be looking at two or three of Dennis Schroeder, Kyle Kuzma, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Montrezl Harrell.
Those four players are all at 0.95 FPPM or above with the main Lakers off the floor. The matchup is not great against the Suns, but they will still be very popular. In GPP, I may look at Markieff Morris and THT to game stack another game. For this article, I’m not going to write up as many options since the Lakers will be such a focal point.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 Positions
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook/Luka Doncic – The choice at the top end of point guard really just comes down to which site you play. On DK, Russ is cheaper and this is the mother of all spots for him. Both teams are in the top 12 in pace on the season and bottom-six in defensive rating on the year. Even with the Wizards playing somewhat better defense, that’s not going to matter with James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the other side. Watching Westbrook during the last game reminded me of the Thunder version a few years back. He can triple-double at any moment and the Kyrie/Harden combo taking on Westy/Bradley Beal is immensely appealing.
On FD, Luka is cheaper. On top of that, Westbrook doesn’t get bonuses for triple-doubles and the turnovers hurt worse. We just saw Luka torment the Blazers in the last game to the tune of almost 65 DK points. It’s an elite spot that could turn into another track meet and the usage is off the charts for Luka. He’s up to 36% and a 1.56 FPPM with more responsibility on his shoulders with Kristaps Porzingis being totally unreliable.
Frank Jackson ($4,000 DK/$3,500 FD) – With Schroeder carrying a ton of attention, we’ll stick to two write-up options. Jackson might garner some attention as well since the field wants to get some of the stars in the lineup tonight. Over the past two games when the Pistons have been short on guards, Jackson has played 26 and 31 minutes. We’ve gotten two very different outcomes as one game was 10 DK and one was 31, but the price tag on both sites is appealing as is the matchup. The Bulls offer the 20th ranked defensive rating and the seventh-fastest pace in the league. If Jackson is going to repeat 30 DK, this is the spot to do it.
Honorable Mention – Kyrie
Shooting Guard
CJ McCollum ($7,300 DK/$8,000 FD) – SG is…tough isn’t the word because there are options up top. You can absolutely play Harden but he’s not cheap at all, nor should he be. The Bradley Beal Rule is in effect (especially on DK) since he’s under $10,000. The issue there is Beal is rarely popular enough to make a lot of sense in cash. Perhaps the field chases McCollum coming off a big game. He still didn’t quite get to 30 minutes but he found his shot and that’s what’s important to me. McCollum has a 29.5% usage and a 1.29 FPPM on the season. Additionally, Dallas ranks seventh in three-point frequency allowed and CJM is shooting 44.4% from beyond the arc. When a player of his caliber starts shooting well after an injury, count me in.
Tim Hardaway ($5,700 DK/$4,400 FD) – The DK price is a little steep but on FD he makes a ton of sense if you eschew the top and play the THJ/THT connection. Hardaway has been asked to play extra minutes with the Mavericks short-handed as he’s played 36 and 40 the past two games. I mentioned earlier that Porzingis has been flat-out bad this year and I wonder if Dallas is either A. trying to feature THJ a bit more for trade or B. trying to help out Luka a bit more. Either way, I have to be interested in a player with that much court time. Featuring a 22.6% usage and a 0.85 FPPM isn’t too shabby either so let’s keep him in mind for this spot.
Honorable Mention – Harden, Beal, potentially a Knicks guard of Quickley, Bullock, or Alec Burks
Small Forward
Larry Nance Jr. ($5,800 DK/$5,300 FD) – I get the feeling that especially on FD, the field will ignore the very mediocre last game from Nance. he still played 34 minutes and Toronto is dead last in rebounds per game on the season. That should allow Nance to hit the glass in this game and garner a lot more than the four boards he got last game. Cleveland plays slow at 28th in pace but Toronto is 15th, which is a significant upgrade. Nance is another player that could potentially be a trade candidate but even if not, the Cavs will still run him out there 32-34 minutes. Let’s face it, who else are you playing on FD?
Carmelo Anthony ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – This is the one spot on FD that you can’t play a Laker so Melo stands out quite a bit. Let’s talk about the minutes he’s been getting lately, with games of 27, 29, 30, and 31 in four of the last five. Pulling up the rotations shows something very interesting.
You’ll notice in the fourth quarter that Melo played when Enes Kanter came off the floor. Portland is having trouble rusting the big man and it says a lot that they can take him off even with KP on the other side. Playing a little smaller makes plenty of sense and the Blazers came back to win the last game. Melo is flirting with a 24% usage and a 1.00 FPPM on the season, more than enough if he’s playing close to 30 minutes.
Rui Hachimura ($5,800 DK/$4,900 FD) – We want cheaper pieces of this game if we can get them and Hachi qualifies. I will grant you that there is some volatility to him but that can happen when you’re playing with Westy and Beal. He did have a string of three games of at least 30 fantasy points, as evidenced by his 0.79 FPPM and playing 35+ minutes in each of the last four. I’m encouraged by the fact he just didn’t shoot enough last game, taking just 10 shots. In the three directly before that, he took at least 15. The sparkling game environment makes so much sense for him to shoot more and he could flirt with a double-double.
Honorable Mention – THT on DK, OG Anunoby on FD
Power Forward
Pascal Siakam ($7,200 DK/$7,900 FD) – I won’t pretend to play doctor but I typically take a wait-and-see approach when a player comes back from Covid. For Siakam, he had nearly a month off from basketball but found his footing quickly with 50 DK this past game and 33 minutes played. He managed to eclipse 50 Dk points despite shooting just 9-22 and the Cavaliers don’t have much in the way of resistance against him tonight. On the season, he leads the Raptors in usage at 25.5% and there’s plenty to like about him tonight. The Cavs have fallen to 20th in rebounding so Spicy P might even get a bump in the respect as well.
Isaiah Stewart ($4,400 DK/$4,100 FD) – On DK, he’s only a center and that could lessen the appeal. I also don’t know if he’ll be popular enough to warrant a cash play but I will have exposure at some point tonight. I said it last slate he was on but couldn’t make it work. Stewart has been seeing more reliable minutes lately with at least 22 in five of the past seven. He also averages 5.5 pain touches per game and we know Chicago can be had in the paint. They rank 24th in points allowed in that area and Stewart can take advantage of that. We always attack the Bulls with centers and Mason Plumlee is far more expensive despite being in a timeshare with Stewart.
Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Tobias Harris if Simmons remains out
Center
Jarrett Allen ($7,500 DK/$6,300 FD) – It hasn’t been the steadiest stretch from Allen but he is wildly underpriced on FD. This is a great game to catch him at a bit of a ceiling as he sits fifth in paint touches and fourth in paint points on the season. Toronto ranks 18th in the category and we mentioned that they are dead last in rebounding. Allen is just outside the top 112 in rebounding chances per game and the Raptors haven’t done well against big men this year. While Trez likely is the most popular option, Allen is in quietly a smash spot.
Deandre Ayton ($6,000 DK/$6,500 FD) – Talk about underpriced, Deandre Ayton has entered the chat. I realize the raw fantasy points the past two games have been ugly, as have the minutes. There’s a simple reason and it was foul trouble. He combined for 11 in the two games against Karl Anthony-Towns and that’s going to cut into any player’s minutes. The Lakers don’t feature much in the way of defense at the center position tonight. Clint Capela just went 8/16 on 4-16 from the field. Ayton is going to be able to bully Trez on the offensive end if he wants to and the prices just don’t make a ton of sense in my eyes.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
