Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/2
There are six games for the slate tonight, featuring a team that has a brand new coach in the Atlanta Hawks. There are also a few teams on a back-to-back so we’ll need to keep an eye on that, especially the San Antonio Spurs. We’ll wait through the day to get news but let’s start laying out the path to green in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/2!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/2 Injury Report
Grizzlies – Kyle Anderson (Q), Grayson Allen (O)
Celtics – Jaylen Brown (Q)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish (O), Kevin Huerter (Q)
Heat – Jimmy Butler (Q)
Knicks – Elf Payton, Taj Gibson (Q)
Spurs – Covid protocols and back-to-back could leave them with 8-10 players tonight
Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Facundo Campazzo (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/2 Positions
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,600 DK/$9,400 FD) – The past couple of games haven’t been great but the Hawks have a new coach and generally, a team goes all out in that first game. They will also be down Reddish and Hunter, which boosts Young. He’s sitting at a 34.7% usage and a 1.47 FPPM with those two off the court and is always a threat to score 30 real points. Miami is just mid-pack in paint points allowed and Young is fourth in drives per game. Even though he didn’t perform well last game, this is a solid spot for Young and the price is very fair.
Chris Paul ($7,500 DK/$7,400 FD) – The late hammer is not the most attractive spot overall tonight, but I do like CP3 a good bit. The main reason is there’s nobody to really guard him. LeBron certainly won’t and Dennis Schroeder is not a scary defender. He continues to lead the team in FPPM at 1.20 on the season and the assist rate has climbed to over 40%. He’ll more likely be an FD play since we need two but the individual matchup is enticing and the price is right even after 15 assists in the previous game.
Derrick Rose ($5,900 DK/$6,200 FD) – Even on a back-to-back last game, Rose played 32 minutes because Thibs Gonna Thibs, as Ghost would say. When we can lock in a player for that amount of minutes at these prices, we have to be interested. Seeing as how Rose hasn’t let the field down yet means they’ll continue to go back to him as well. Over the past few games, while he’s been starting, Rose is at a 1.12 FPPM and a 22.3% usage rate which works perfectly at the salary.
Honorable Mention – Russell Westbrook, Dejounte Murray, Kendrick Nunn/Goran Dragic (if Jimmy Butler is out)
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,700 DK/$10,200 FD) – I view the Washington backcourt as we should play Beal on DK and Westy on FD, given their respective salaries. We talk about it constantly that it makes zero sense the NBA’s leading scorer just doesn’t get played in DFS. Beal is always at super low ownership unless Westbrook is out but that shouldn’t be the case. Not only is he 12th in minutes across the league, he still averages a 29.7% usage rate even when he and Westbrook share the floor. Memphis is 13th in pace so this could be a track meet and there’s not much more safety than the leading scorer in the NBA.
Paul George ($8,400 DK/$7,900 FD) – PG13 isn’t under the $8,000 threshold very often on FD but here we are. He shot pretty poorly on Sunday with a 7-21 day but he played 38 minutes, the first time he’s been over 33 since the start of February. That’s a great sign and George won’t shoot that poorly again. Even with that, he still came close to 40 fantasy points so a normal shooting day pushes him towards 50 or more. Boston is 16th in defensive rating and without Marcus Smart, they are worse off. I’ll take the discount and run.
Note – We’ll need some clarity as I have my eyes on Lonnie Walker for the Spurs. He’s cheap if they are down to 8-9 players as I suspect could be the case. If not, we could look towards Dillon Brooks on FD since they play the Wizards but the lower-end is not that great tonight. Just please don’t chase Immanuel Quickley in cash as he continues to not see stable minutes.
Honorable Mention – Devin Booker
Small Forward
Khris Middleton ($8,300 DK/$7,400 FD) – Middleton seems close to a slam dunk play on FD. Look, I could write up LeBron James for the sixth straight slate, but I think we all know where things stand with Bron as long as AD is out. Play him if you like. I have some small fears about the Lakers staying in that one but I digress. AS far as Middleton goes, it seems like the Bucks will be cautious with Jrue Holiday as he played just 21 minutes last game. That makes plenty of sense and now the Bucks get a traveling Denver squad that’s playing nine men on a back-to-back. They are not going to play defense and a lethal shooter like Middleton will be able to take advantage.
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,300 FD) – It’s a Nuggets slate with a weak SF position and he’s under $6,500. I don’t love the spot for him but I’ll bet he’s chalk so let’s just move on here. I’m not interested in DK in cash games.
Justise Winslow ($3,900 DK/$4,400 FD) – Winslow picked up some steam in cash games last slate and paid off with nearly 30 DK points. He’s racking up about a 24% usage rate off the bench so far and with Allen still out, that won’t change. He’s not going to shoot 8-12 again and you can make the case to just play Desmond Bane on DK at the cheaper price. However, Winslow fits perfectly fine and you can honestly play both against the Wizard’s fastest pace in the league and their bottom 10 defensive rating.
Honorable Mention – Jimmy Buckets (if active), Kawhi Leonard
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,300 DK/$9,500 FD) – I’m not sure if I feel the need to pay all the way up to Giannis at this point, but we’ll see how the day goes. If we don’t spend all the way up, Randle makes a whole lot of sense. He just continues to be one of the safer investments on any give slate given he’s second in minutes and the usage is excellent as well. He sits over 27% for the season and over a 1.20 FPPM. Now when we see the Spurs play at a top 10 pace contrasted with the bottom-five pace for the Knicks and the spot really gets enticing.
Bobby Portis ($4,700 DK/$5,600 FD) – It’s very rare that Portis will be a cash option but with the Nuggets struggling so badly defensively right now, I’m interested. Portis is an integral role player for the Bucks off the bench and owns the third-highest FPPM on the team. That’s right, his 1.13 mark is ahead of the 1.08 for Holiday, and Portis should see some Micheal Porter Jr. defense. That’s always something I want to attack and Portis is a nice salary saver on both sites.
Daniel Theis ($5,400 DK/$4,900 FD) – Boston will need the bigs in this game since the Clippers can play Serge Ibaka and Ivaca Zubac throughout. Theis has played at least 25 minutes in five of the past six and has scored at least 24 fantasy points in four of those games. The Clippers are also just 13th in rebounding so this spot stands out as one that he can approach 25-30 fantasy points yet again. He’ll never stand out in usage but the 0.82 FPPM is rock solid for this salary and matchup.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, Jayson Tatum, Kyle Kuzma (FD only)
Center
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD) – Nikola Jokic is going to get some traction I would imagine after a monster performance last night. I do have some concerns about playing 35 minutes last night so I’ll go back to My Name Is Jonas. He was dog water last game but when you foul four times in nine minutes, that tells the story. We love centers against the Wizards since they are 27th in paint points allowed and 26th in paint rebounds. JoVal has an FPPM over 1.25 on the season and I’ll have a very short memory. The last game’s dud works to our favor as he’s cheaper than he should be tonight.
Note – Center is rough tonight. Clint Capela is a fine option, but not someone I’m actively chasing. Deandre Ayton falls into that same category and then we get into some very unstable options. If Aldridge sits as I suspect, Jakob Poeltl likely becomes pretty chalky but we’ll see what happens through the day. Look for updates in Discord for this position!
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