Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18
We only have six games on the board tonight but there’s plenty of star power to go around. Not only that but we have some great spots to take advantage of and some good value spots as well. I’m not sure we get a repeat of Dame 3:16 even though he’s on the schedule against the Pelicans again. Let’s talk about that and plenty more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 to lay the foundation to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 Injury Report
Jazz – Mike Conley (O)
Thunder – Darius Bazley, George Hill (O), Lu Dort (Q)
Hawks – Clint Capela (O)
Magic – Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier (Q), Cole Anthony (O)
Knicks – Derrick Rose, Mitchell Robinson, Elf Payton (O), Immanuel Quickley (Q)
Pelicans – JJ Redick (O)
Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O)
Wolves – Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell (O)
Suns – Cam Johnson, Abdel Nader (Q)
Lakers – Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Alex Caruso (O), Markieff Morris (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 Positions
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – I bet you expected to see Damian Lillard here but in honesty, he’s $11,000 on DK. That’s a lot even for a player that just scored 50 real points. Instead of looking at Dame as the most expensive player on the slate, I’ll shift gears. Young also isn’t a huge priority on DK but on FD he’s under $9,000 and that’s a green light for me.
The past couple of games have dragged down Young’s price since he’s scored a combined 27 real points. That’s not going to last and we did just see Zach LaVine light up this Thunder defense. Young is fourth in the league in drives per game and even though OKC will get Al Horford back, they’re still 14th in paint points allowed. This is a good fit for Young to get back on track.
Chris Paul ($7,700 DK/$6,900 FD) – Another point guard that is priced poorly on FD, the Point God checks the boxes for me tonight. He’s under $7,000 on FD and gets a massive pace upgrade. Minnesota is fourth in the league while the Suns sit all the way down at 25th. CP3 carries a 22.4% usage on the season and a 1.18 FPPM on top of that. If his assist prop is 8.5 or under, I’m going to be interested since he has an assist rate close to 70%. This is a rock-solid pick across the board.
Ricky Rubio ($5,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – It’s not often we pick on Phoenix with really any position but Rubio can’t be ignored much longer. The minutes have ticked up slightly to 27 or more the past four games and he’s becoming a bigger part of the offense with Beasley and D-Lo sidelined. Since the Break, Rubio is third on the team in minutes and has a 1.14 FPPM, the same as rookie Anthony Edwards. He also has an assist rate right under 40% and the Wolves will need his veteran guile to keep up with Phoenix.
Honorable Mention – Lonzo Ball, Dennis Schroeder, possibly Frank Ntilikina if all the guards are out for New York
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,100 DK/$9,500 FD) – The GPP pick may well be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander after his flop in Chicago. Additionally, we’re going to need to see what projections bring for the main three of the Jazz with Mike Conley out. Donovan Mitchell might well be where we have to go on the other side of this game, but I love Beal once again. The price has gone down for the leading scorer in the NBA and he’s barely over $9,100 on DK.
We all know his potential and his scoring prowess but there’s another reason I like him. Russell Westbrook is 11th in the league in drives per game and already shoots under 40% off that play. Now he has to deal with Rudy Gobert. I think Beal might have to carry the load even more than normal tonight. We may need to reserve him for GPP and use Mitchell in cash but don’t forget about Beal tonight.
Jordan Clarkson/Joe Ingles – We’re going to discuss this duo together because FD makes you choose two of Mitchell, Clarkson, and Ingles. Apparently, they all play shooting guard in the eyes of FD. On either site, I fully expect Ingles to be one of the five chalkiest players on the slate. He’s far too cheap on each for a matchup against Washington. Ingles picks up about 1.5% in usage rate but has more of the point guard role against the fastest pace in the league. He can also hit the three-ball as he’s shooting over 46% from beyond the arc. The Wizards give up the fourth-highest field goal percentage from deep on the season.
I tend to think that the field pairs up Clarkson and Ingles and spends up elsewhere, leaving Mitchell the lowest of the three. What’s interesting is Clarkson actually doesn’t move in usage or FPPM with Conley off the floor. They have played 408 minutes together and Mitchell has been on the floor for exactly 14 minutes of that. So Clarkson’s role is the same whether he’s paired with Conley or not. That won’t (and shouldn’t) stop folks from playing him tonight against the Wizards. His potential is immense in this spot.
Note – If Quickley plays for the Knicks, he could tend to be popular. We didn’t love him against the Sixers and he flopped, but in the previous game, he was fine while shooting 6-19 from the field. If he’s about the only guard, I’ll take his 33-34 minutes but he’ll likely be DK-only. I’d have a very difficult time not going double Jazz on FD and we still need to see if he plays.
Honorable Mention – Kevin Huerter
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,700 DK/$10,800 FD) – Last slate, Bron was over 30% in GPP alone even though he was on a back-to-back. He played just 31 and 30 minutes in those games and still nabbed a triple-double in each. Charlotte is top-10 in pace on the season and Bron sports a 1.54 FPPM and a usage of almost 35% when the Lakers are down the pieces they are tonight. I would be very surprised if Bron is not the cash game anchor for the field tonight.
Danilo Gallinari ($6,100 DK/$5,700 FD) – The price is just a hair high on DK but on FD it’s easier to consider getting a piece of Gallinari Revenge!! Okay, maybe he’s not someone we should chase a revenge narrative for but it is his most recent team and they give up the eighth-most three-point attempts per game on the season. Atlanta has been leaning on him more and more lately, capping with 34 minutes this past game. The pace is appealing in this game as a whole and Gallo has hit 20 real points or more in four of the past five. This is what the Hawks thought they could get before his injury.
Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,900 DK) – THT seems like he’s going to be tough to fit on FD since we have three Jazz to choose from in the SG position. We don’t have such issues on DK and the Lakers are down bodies. They only have 10 players if Morris is out and that includes some end of the bench players. To wit, there’s a reason THT has played 28 and 26 minutes the past two games. He’s also respectable with a 0.92 FPPM on the season and given the spot, he seems like an easy tag-team partner with LeBron tonight.
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,200 FD) – I can’t get behind a five-digit price tag for Randle on DK, but FD continues to be priced extremely fairly. Randle has been a minutes monster all year but the Knicks are actually pushing for a playoff spot and Randle has played 39, 41, and 40 minutes in the past three. New York needs him again with Nikola Vucevic on the other end of the floor so we can expect him to play almost the full game. When a player has a 29.3% usage rate and a 1.30 FPPM in the sample with those minutes, it’s not hard to see why we like him tonight.
Zion Williamson ($8,900 DK/$8,400 FD) – I’m not in love with the price but it’s a tough position on FD especially. If you watched the last game on Tuesday, you saw the Blazers got smacked in the paint. Nobody could stop anything the Pelicans wanted to do close to the basket, and that’s Zion’s jam. He finished 11-17 from the field and almost won the game a the buzzer. It can be very, very frustrating to watch Zion. It’s not his talent or game, it’s the fact Brandon Ingram thinks his mid-range game is more important than feeding Zion in the paint. I’d take the sure two points myself but that’s what the Pelicans are right now. There’s still plenty of floor for Zion and if they ever start giving him 20 shots a game or more, get out of the way.
Note – We’ll need something to open up. Kyle Kuzma is interesting and at a fair price, but three Lakers isn’t ideal in cash since we don’t always like to stack teams unless it’s an extreme case. That still could happen with the Lakers tonight, but we need clarity. One name I also want to throw out is Nathan Knight. He’s only in play if Clint Capela is out for the Hawks but in the past two games, he’s played 22 minutes and scored 15 and 16 real points. He’d be a very solid punt if we get that chance.
Honorable Mention – John Collins (if no Capela)
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,400 DK/$9,700 FD) – If half the Magic are out, we will need to look at Vucevic in a major way. If not, KAT is on my radar for sure. When you look at his results, his lone flop over the past few was a back-to-back. That’s been a bit of an issue for him this year but now he’s got some rest. Deandre Ayton does not represent a challenge in the paint and he’s actually been sitting quite a bit in the fourth quarter lately. KAT is sitting right at a 30% usage rate and it’s been he and Anthony Edwards as the usage monsters. The 1.34 FPPM should shine bright in this spot.
We can also consider Ayton himself because let’s face it, KAT is a terrible defender. That’s not a secret but here we are. Minnesota is 25th in points in the paint allowed and that’s exactly where we want to target Ayton. It’s going to likely be KAT or Vuc for me tonight unless something pops up during the day. The Thunder could sit Al Horford again which would bring Moses Brown into the picture.
Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Horford if he plays
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
