Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16
Happy Steve Austin day and tonight we have another fun seven-game slate in the NBA! The first look would tell us center may be the most difficult position as the options are slim pickings. On DK, six of the top 11 eligible players are out or questionable and on FD we have fewer choices in total. Let’s dive into which paths we need to be looking at in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 and find those green screens once again!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 Injury Report
Heat – Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro (Q)
Hawks – Clint Capela (Q)
Rockets – Christian Wood, John Wall, Eric Gordon, David Nwaba (O), Danuel House (Q)
Knicks – Derrick Rose (O), multiple starters are questionable so we’ll monitor through the day
Sixers – Joel Embiid (O)
Thunder – Darius Bazley, Lu Dort (Q), George Hill, Al Horford (O)
Pelicans – JJ Redick (O)
Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O), CJ McCollum will return to the lineup tonight but almost has to have a minutes limit
Wolves – Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 Positions
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,800 DK/$10,100 FD) – I noted up top that McCollum is expected back but I don’t envision him playing normal minutes. That means the bulk of the offense will continue to fall on Lillard’s shoulders and what a spot to have that responsibility. We’ve attacked the Pelicans with guards for a while and Dame still has a 33.2% usage rate and a 1.43 FPPM even with McCollum involved. New Orleans sits fourth in three-point frequency allowed and third in field goal percentage given up, the perfect spot for Lillard. These teams aren’t special in pace at 19th and 20th but they are 28th and 29th in defensive rating. That’s a track meet waiting to happen.
Dennis Schroder ($6,300 DK/$6,200 FD) – The Lakers will be rolling into a back-to-back situation here and are still shorthanded. We always want a piece of teams going against the Wolves, who are 26th in defensive rating and third in pace. It’s not totally out of the question to see a player like LeBron take more of a passive role on the back-to-back spot and Schroeder could easily have a big night scoring. He already sits at over 26% in usage and has a 1.04 FPPM when Gasol and AD are out of the lineup. This style of game could bring out the Schroeder that was an offensive dynamo in Oklahoma City and he’s priced very fairly.
Tomas Satoransky ($3,600 DK/$4,200 FD) – Neither site really reacted to the fact Sato entered the starting lineup last game and went full ham sandwich, which leaves him as probable chalk tonight. I’m perfectly fine eating said chalk as this is a very good spot. The Thunder just miss the top 12 in pace this year while the Bulls sit inside the top five. In that last game, Satoransky had a usage rate of over 18% and a 35% assist rate. He honestly might be a better fit as a starter since he’s more of a distributor and can let Zach LaVine and the crew do most of the work. The bottom line is the price is silly low and we’ll be taking advantage.
Honorable Mention – Trae Young (FD), Mike Conley
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – I can see SGA being chalk on both sites tonight in honesty. The Thunder are missing a ton of pieces right now and SGA gets an elite spot against the Bulls who play at one of the fastest paces in basketball. We only have a 71 minutes sample with Gilgeous-Alexander with the Thunder in the spot they are tonight. It’s very encouraging as he sports a 35% usage rate and a 1.27 FPPM, not to mention a 31% assist rate. This spot is just too good to pass up and the FD price especially is going to leave him extremely popular.
Kevin Huerter ($5,700 DK/$5,700 FD) – As long as Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter remain out, Huerter will remain cash-viable. That goes double when he draws a great matchup like the Rockets, who are frankly an absolute disaster. Huerter is a solid (if not spectacular) 0.87 FPPM with those two players off the court this season but he’s going to flirt with around 30 minutes. Houston looks strong in defensive rating at 12th but is in a free-fall over the past few weeks. Huerter is a natural fit in this spot, especially on FD.
Immanuel Quickley ($5,800 DK/$5,200 FD) – This is going to be interesting. I’m going to guess that IQ will still be popular but I’m already not a fan of this spot. If the Knicks continue to be without multiple guards, Quickley could start like he did last night. That’s well and good, but the rookie will also draw Ben Simmons on defense, which is not a good matchup for him (or anyone, really). Simmons should be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year and IQ is highly scoring dependent. Let’s see where projections take us. I’ll eat the chalk if I have to, but I’m hoping we don’t.
Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Victor Oladipo
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($8,100 DK/$7,700 FD) – Once again, I’m not crazy about this position. If Bam Adebayo is out, Jimmy Butler remains an elite option on DK. I’m pretty sure I don’t want to pay $11,000 on FD so let’s go down the ladder a little bit. The Pelicans can be difficult to peg but one thing is sure – Ingram is taking his shots every night. He’s taken at least 14 over the past three games and has scored 23 or more real in two of three games. On the season, Ingram has a 1.16 FPPM and a 28% usage rate. We already talked about the elite game environment that BI finds himself in and I’m interested tonight.
Danilo Gallinari ($5,900 DK/$5,600 FD) – I’m back on Gallo tonight as he continues to play 30 minutes a night and has a 0.94 FPPM without Reddish and Hunter. The pace will be awesome in this game and Houston is tied for the 10th worst three-point percentage allowed on the season. Gallinari hasn’t forgotten how to shoot from beyond the arc as he’s gone over 40% from deep. I’m not in love with the price but the position is weak again as we stand.
Kenyon Martin ($3,500 FD) – He’s over $5,000 on DK which might be more of a fade for me but some of that depends on how many Rockets are available tonight. On FD, I’m not sure there’s a reason to not play him at minimum price. I simply cannot understand the logic behind that. He’s posted at least 30 FD points in three straight games off the bench. He has an FPPM over 1.00 on the season and is too easy a play on FD.
Honorable Mention – LeBron James, Butler on DK, Kevin Porter (FD)
Power Forward
Tobias Harris ($8,500 DK/$7,800 FD) – We haven’t really touched on the Sixers yet with Embiid out but Harris is always one of my first looks. It might seem like he’s expensive on DK and he’s certainly not cheap. However, Harris rocks a 28.6% usage and a 1.27 FPPM on the season without Embiid on the floor. The Knicks played last night and the defense isn’t going to be the best in this spot. Harris is a lock for over 30 minutes if the game stays close (and it should) and he’ll likely be quite popular, especially on FD.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – I really like the price over on FD and the game in general. Markkanen has been playing a ton of minutes out of the break, racking up 28, 33, and 32 in the past three. He’s healthy and has had a floor of 28 DK points. That floor came on a 4-12 shooting game, which isn’t likely to replicate. In that game, he had a 0.88 FPPM despite the poor shooting and all he needs is more real points to crush his FD price. The Thunder are 11th in rebounding on the season but that could take a hit without some of who they’re missing.
Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – I’m going to be willing to back off this pick but I do think Poku brings enough safety to consider in cash tonight. As we mentioned, OKC is short on rotation players and they’ve started to let Poku get some minutes. He certainly has some flaws but the Thunder aren’t exactly trying to win right now. They’ve given him 30, 30, and 39 minutes in three games out of the break. The shot is untrustworthy at this stage but he hits the glass with an average of 8.3 boards in those three games. With those kinds of minutes in a fast-paced spot, we can consider Poku in my eyes. I’m interested to see what the model does with him.
Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Jayson Tatum, Zion, John Collins (smash play again if Capela is out)
Center
Rudy Gobert ($8,200 DK/$8,800 FD) – This isn’t a play that I’m a huge fan of but the center position is not great overall tonight. On paper, this spot makes a ton of sense for Gobert. I wish he wasn’t coming off a 24/28 game to cause the price to rise but that’s not something we can help. To their credit, Boston ranks 10th in paint points allowed but they also don’t have the bodies to contend with Gobert down low. Additionally, they rank 19th in rebounding on the season and Gobert should be able to clean up the glass all night long.
Tony Bradley ($3,700 DK/$3,500 FD) – It appears that Dwight Howard and Bradley are going to split time but the salaries do not reflect that. Bradley is minimum on FD and not much above that on DK while Howard is $6,000 on DK. That’s a pass for me and we just saw Drew Eubanks rack up about 20 DK last night in this spot. That’s more than enough for Bradley and his 1.11 FPPM on the season. I would be surprised if he’s not chalky, especially with the center position being tough as we sit.
Honorable Mention – Karl Anthony-Towns, Enes Kanter
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
