Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15
There is virtually no injury news at the top-end of the slate tonight which probably won’t last the entire day. Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis remain out but that has been the case for some time now. It could be an interesting night if we don’t get a ton of value but let’s lay the foundation for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 and find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 Injury Report
Wizards – Raul Neto, Davis Bertans (Q)
Knicks – Derrick Rose, Mitchell Robinson (O), Elfrid Payton (Q)
Nets – Durant, Blake Griffin (O)
Spurs – DeMar DeRozan (Q)
Pistons – Dennis Smith Jr, Wayne Ellington (Q)
Clippers – Patrick Beverly (O)
Nuggets – Monte Morris, Gary Harris (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 Positions
Point Guard
LaMelo Ball ($8,700 DK/$8,500 FD) – The high-end of the position is not the most appealing tonight in my eyes and I may skip it altogether. If that happens, Ball could be where I fall especially against the Kings. Sacramento still represents one of the best matchups on the board with a top 10 pace and the dead last defensive ranking. That’s the exact style of game that suits Ball’s strengths. Both teams are in the top 10 in pace and since Ball can fill the stat sheet, he gets added opportunities in this game environment. No player on the Hornets has a higher FPP than the 1.26 Ball sports.
Jrue Holiday ($6,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – I feel like Holiday is a borderline lock on FD since he’s sub-$6,000. This is what I wrote for Saturday when the Bucks played the Wizards.
Considering they face the Wizards and these teams rank first and sixth in pace, we have to have some interest all the way around. It also has to be mentioned that Holiday only played five fourth-quarter minutes last game due to the blowout nature of the game. That can be a concern here but the price is simply too low. He’s second in the league in steals per game and Russell Westbrook is top-five in turnovers. That’s a good mix for some easy bonus points and the 1.06 FPPM on the year is nothing to sneer at.
Holiday proceeded to play 32 minutes and put up 35+ fantasy points on both sites. I was worried because he had two fouls quick in that game but he still stuck with it. Additionally, Holiday only shot 33% from the field last game. His price dropped on FD and we should jump on it.
Reggie Jackson ($5,200 DK/$4,900 FD) – The Clippers will be on a back-to-back and could see either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard sit out. Regardless of that happening or not, Jackson should be in line for another start. The Mavericks are not an intimidating matchup at all, considering they rank bottom-five in defensive rating on the season. With Beverly off the court, Jackson has a 19.5% usage rate and a 0.86 FPPM. That’s not too shabby considering the usage that Kawhi and George have themselves.
Honorable Mention – Luka Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, Dejounte Murray
Shooting Guard
Terry Rozier ($6,900 DK/$6,700 FD) – Much like the point guard position, SG doesn’t offer me a ton of attractive options. You can always play James Harden but it’s not like he’s cheap or the matchup is spectacular. On FD, DeMar DeRozan could be a strong option if he’s active but that’s not a sure thing yet. If the top-end continues to look sketchy, Rozier is a really nice fallback option. He gets the same matchup we talked about with Ball and has a usage rate over 23% himself. Scoring-dependent players can be a little iffy in cash but there are exceptions to be made and the spot against the Kings makes the most sense. It helps Rozier is under $7,000 on both sites as well.
Immanuel Quickley ($5,600 DK/$4,600 FD) – We know the Knicks are down Rose for sure. Austin Rivers is active but Elf Payton may not be. With all the uncertainty, we have to touch on Quickley against the Nets. He played 33 minutes last game and there’s no denying his potential at this point. We know what Austin Rivers is at this point so we’re really just waiting to see if Payton is out. Give me a talented scoring threat in a massive pace-up spot with the Nets sitting 11th to dead last for the Knicks. With Payton and Rose off the floor, IQ has a 28.9% usage and a 1.10 FPPM.
Caris LeVert ($4,100 FD) – LeVert made his return to the court last game and while he’s still priced up on DK, he’s far too cheap on FD. He played 27 minutes which was great to see and shot the ball 14 times. Sure, he only hit five shots but it should be expected to be rusty after such a lengthy layoff. LeVert still managed to grind out 20 FD points and the ceiling is much, much higher. The price is completely nonsensical and Denver is in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating on top of everything else.
Honorable Mention – Paul George
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,300 DK/$10,500 FD) – This is a great spot to get a ceiling game from the King. Not only does Golden State play at the second-fastest pace in the league, but the game should also theoretically stay closer since the Lakers are short-handed. James is looking at a 34.4% usage rate and a 1.49 FPPM with the Lakers down the players they are tonight, which justifies the price tag. There’s also some narrative that after playing with each other in the All-Star Game, LeBron and Steph will want to one-up each other. Bron could easily turn into a GPP play based on projected ownership, but I’d have no issues paying up either.
RJ Barrett ($6,200 DK/$5,700 FD) – I feel like every night we don’t particularly care for the SF position. Michael Porter Jr. makes sense in cash games as the third component in the Denver offense but we talk about him just about every time. Given the spot, I will likely have two of the three Knicks we’ll discuss today. Barrett has been given more consistent minutes lately and while I don’t think we’ll get 50 fantasy points he’s worth playing. Barrett sees a usage rate over 24% and the FPPM is 0.88 but the pace in this spot makes up for it. Still, he’s more appealing on FD than DK this evening.
Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, Harrison Barnes
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 DK/$11,100 FD) – Just like Holiday, Giannis is in the carbon copy spot that he was Saturday. All Giannis did in that game was triple-double and put up 70+ fantasy points in that game. Granted, the Fighting Russell Westbrooks kept that game close all the way through but still. The Greek Freak has recorded two straight triple-doubles out of the break and seems determined to get the Bucks to the top of the Eastern Conference. Both teams are sitting in the top-eight in pace and it’s the perfect spot to pay up.
Julius Randle ($9,800 DK/$9,200 FD) – We’ve attacked Brooklyn all season long with big men and the time has come to do it again. Randle gets a total smash spot this evening and has climbed to over a 1.30 FPPM while the usage has gone over 29%. On top of those metrics, Randle is third in minutes per game across the NBA. Brooklyn is 20th in paint points allowed and even though Randle isn’t huge in the paint, he knows how to take advantage of a spot. Just play Randle tonight.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,000 DK/$5,700 FD) – If you’re not comfortable spending up on LeBron, just roll down to Kuzma and get the exposure here. Kuzma has been hitting the glass all season long but in the past two games he’s recorded 26 total rebounds. On top of that, he’s played at least 30 minutes each night and scored at least 24 real points. DK priced him down enough to use him on either site and the Warriors are 22nd in rebounding this season. The past two opponents for the Lakers were 25th and 29th in rebounding, making Kuzma a very appealing option tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant, Marvin Bagley
Center
Richaun Holmes ($6,400 DK/$6,700 FD) – Nikola Jokic is always in play but expensive. Instead, we could go further down the ladder and this is an elite spot for Holmes. He’s tied for ninth in paint touches and 12th in paint points on the season. On the flip side, Charlotte is 27th in paint points allowed and they are 13th in rebounding. Sacramento will need the size of Holmes to combat that and Holmes is averaging a little over 30 minutes per night lately.
Note – Whew, the center position is….not great tonight. Joker is an arm and a leg on FD but could work. The matchup between Jonas Valanciunas and Deandre Ayton in the Grizzlies/Suns game is interesting to me but I’m not sure I’d trust Ayton in cash. I would rather just play Holmes and save the money over JoVal.
Going a little lower, Jakob Poeltl gets a nice spot against Detroit. They have shown the willingness to play Isaiah Stewart a lot lately, and that’s why I don’t trust Mason Plumlee for cash. Still, the trust factor with Poeltl isn’t really there at this price tag. The last player I’ll mention is an FD special – James Wiseman. He’s $3,900 there and I’m interested to see if he gets attention. If not, keep him in mind as a punt.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
