Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13
If I could pick one word, to sum up, the slate to start with it would be “loaded”. On DK alone, 10 players are priced $9,500 or higher and that’s before we even get into game environments. There’s already one game with an O/U over 240 and there could be more. It’s crazy that the Kings and Hawks might not garner the attention it deserves because of other spots. Let’s dive into that and more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 and find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 Injury Report
Pistons – Dennis Smith Jr. (O), Svi Mykhailiuk (traded to OKC)
Nets – Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin (O), TLC (Q)
Raptors – Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby (O)
Wizards – Davis Bertans (Q)
Kings – Hassan Whiteside (O)
T-Wolves – D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley (O)
Pacers – Caris LeVert will make his debut tonight. I have (almost) no interest in playing him in cash and I’m going to avoid the Pacers in cash for the most part. Adding in a player of LeVert’s caliber will change things and that makes the floor for guys like Damontas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon a bit more unsure.
Suns – Devin Booker (probable)
Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Gary Harris (Q), Paul Millsap could be a rest candidate
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 Positions
Point Guard
Damian Lillard/Luka Doncic – Alright so I’m starting with a bit of a cheat but I think this choice is dependent on what site you play. Let’s start with DK because I would just side with Doncic. He’ll be back after missing the last game and in one game after the All-Star break, he reeled off another triple-double. Now he gets a Denver squad that is on a back-to-back and already struggles defensively. They are only 15th in defensive rating and Dallas is bottom-five themselves. Both teams are in the bottom 10 in pace but this one should be full of fireworks and the Luka versus Jokic late-night hammer is super appealing.
On FD, Lillard offers a discount of $500 which isn’t enormous but needs to be noted. I’ll be interested to see what the projected ownership is on each site but I love Dame Time regardless. CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic remain sidelined and that means Dame is the offense. Given the Wolves are third in pace and bottom-six in defensive rating, you have to love that combo. Minnesota also allows over a 37% conversion rate from three-point land, another fit for Lillard. He’s averaging a 33.7% usage and a 1.44 FPPM without the other two players in the lineup in an elite spot. Did I mention he’s under $10,000?
Jrue Holiday ($6,500 DK/$6,100 FD) – I can understand that Holiday might seem sketchy, but the minutes are starting to come back. He played 25 last game and should be a solid bet for 28-30 tonight. Considering they face the Wizards and these teams rank first and sixth in pace, we have to have some interest all the way around. It also has to be mentioned that Holiday only played five fourth-quarter minutes last game due to the blowout nature of the game. That can be a concern here but the price is simply too low. He’s second in the league in steals per game and Russell Westbrook is top-five in turnovers. That’s a good mix for some easy bonus points and the 1.06 FPPM on the year is nothing to sneer at.
Note – I’m kind of in a wait-and-see pattern for the lower end of point guard tonight. The player that sticks out the most right now is Jaylen Nowell. I’m trying to decide if that’s just chasing a monster game or if we’re onto something more of a sure thing. He’s gotten minutes since Malik Beasley got suspended, but the results are all over the place. Let’s see what the model says tomorrow. As of now, this looks like a great spend-up position.
Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox, Kyle Lowry
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($11,800 FD) – I don’t feel the strong need to pay for Harden tonight on DK with all the other options. On FD, it could be a different story. Nobody will trust Bradley Beal after two straight stinkers. There’s not another shooting guard over $8,000 on FD which means the field could take one of two paths. The first is they could just live further down in salary and pay up elsewhere and the second is they lock up Harden and take the sure thing. Yes, the Nets are big favorites against the Pistons. Just look through Harden’s game logs though. He is a lock for 30+ minutes in every game. Without Durant, Harden has a 1.52 FPPM and a 29.8% usage which is plenty in this spot.
Buddy Hield ($6,600 DK/$6,500 FD) – I’ve been playing Tyrese Haliburton more than Hield in cash this year but the prices have flipped too much on FD in my eyes. Hield is $800 cheaper and this man is chucking three’s anymore. In the last four games, Hield has attempted 51 threes and played at least 37 minutes. Both teams are in the bottom eight in defensive rating and Buddy is right about 38% from deep this year. We want access to this game in any way we can find them and Hield really fits the bill on FD especially.
Caris LeVert ($3,900 FD) – So I said I had almost no interest and that is true on DK. On FD, I might well play LeVert since he’s SO cheap. I understand he hasn’t played with the Pacers and it’s a guess as to how he meshes in the first game. The price is just too low. He’s virtually minimum-price on FD. As long as we believe he plays 20 minutes, I’m likely in so that I can afford multiple studs at other spots. Think of it as LeVert and Lillard for $14,000 and suddenly that sounds pretty solid.
Honorable Mention – Terry Rozier, Kevin Huerter, Gary Trent
Small Forward
Norman Powell ($7,300 DK/$7,600 FD) – Since spending up at small forward doesn’t get higher than this on FD, it could be a popular route. It’s hard to argue either because Powell has been a walking bucket in the four games the Raptors have battled Covid issues. He’s played at least 32 minutes and he’s hit 30 real points in three of four games. The only time he didn’t he still scored 25 so that’s very solid. Powell rocks a 26.6% usage rate over the past two weeks (four games) which is two percent higher than Kyle Lowry. Both teams are top 15 in pace this season and Powell should continue to be the primary scorer for Toronto.
Gordon Hayward ($7,200 DK/$7,300 FD) – Since there are no expensive options, we can live a little higher at small forward tonight. Hayward and Powell could be a nice mini-stack since both teams play at a high pace and it’s not the Raptors defense is fearsome right now. Hayward’s ceiling isn’t as consistent as it was at the start of the season but the price is lower and he’s still getting a ton of minutes, 35+ when the game stays close. Even with LaMelo Ball having the team lead in FPPM, the 1.07 for Hayward is second and the usage rates are dead even at 24.5%.
Danilo Gallinari ($5,700 DK/$4,700 FD) – I think there might be some momentum for Bogdan Bogdanovic since he’s much cheaper and playing 18-20 minutes coming back from his injury. Maybe it’s crazy but I feel like Gallo has the safer floor even from the points per dollar perspective. He’s back to playing about 30 minutes and we always love players against the Kings. The metric that really has my hopes up for Gallo is Sacramento gives up the second-highest field goal percentage from three. Even with all his struggles this season, Gallinari is shooting 39.5% from three-point land. This has the makings of a 6-9 game from him and he’ll be on his way.
Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,300 FD) – You can say blowout concerns all you like and I understand why. I also don’t care that much because if Washington gets smacked, Giannis is going to be at the center of it. He only played 29 minutes against the Knicks and racked up 54 FD points with a triple-double to boot. If the NBA media didn’t have Giannis Fatigue, he’d be dead center in the MVP discussion right now. The 1.66 FPPM still is massive, as is the 33.4% usage rate. Washington has not a soul on the interior who can do anything but get out of the way. Giannis should have a field day and could be the stud the field anchors to in cash games.
Chris Boucher ($6,600 DK/$6,700 FD) – Playing Boucher this season has been an adventure. He gets “Nick Nurse’d” some nights and gets very few minutes. Others he just struggles but this night has the earmarks of a massive day. For one, he’s logged 34 and 30 minutes the past two games in part because Toronto is short multiple star players. Charlotte has been vulnerable to big men all season long, ranking 17th in rebounding and 29th in paint points allowed. Boucher is at 4.9 paint touches per game but that should go up tonight and his 1.35 FPPM over the past four games is going to shine tonight. I’d be willing to play him as a center on DK as well.
Mo Wagner ($3,900 FD) – This is strictly FD only and I have less than zero interest in playing him on DK. Washington needs some type of size to contend with Giannis and crew tonight. I expect Robin Lopez to get some run as well, but Wagner will play enough to consider sub-$4,000. Brook Lopez isn’t as good defensively as he has been in past years and he’s not the best rebounding center on a good day. Wagner can float with him towards the perimeter and I’m not expecting much, but the salary works with a high/low approach with Giannis if you choose.
Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant (I could see the field being very high on him), Marvin Bagley
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,600 DK/$9,100 FD) – The FD price is eye-catching, to say the least. I understand that KAT has been a little rough results-wise the past couple of games but goodness. This seems aggressive as far as pricing him down. He still has a 1.39 FPPM on the season to go with a 27.6% usage and now he gets the Enes Kanter Defense on the other side. If I had to bet, I don’t think KAT will be popular in cash but he is a mis-priced player in my eyes. Let’s see what the ownership brings us before we decide.
Clint Capela ($7,500 DK/$8,300 FD) – I’m not sure there’s a better spot on paper for Capela than right here. It’s one of the reasons I don’t think KAT is needed at all. He can play fast so the pace in this game doesn’t concern me at all. Capela is still a monster in the paint with the second-most touches there per game. Only two players score more points in the paint than Capela and the Kings are 28th in that metric. They are also 25th in rebounding total, so I believe this is the chalk center play on potentially both sites. I love Jokic as much as anyone, but the FD price is exorbitant. Capela is $3,400 cheaper and flirted with 50 FD points on just nine real points last game. He has that style of upside tonight.
Mason Plumlee ($6,200 DK/$6,100 FD) – The Return of the PlumDawg! He’s not a member of the cash article often but a spot against the Nets gets him on the radar. One thing to keep in mind is (so far) we don’t have the plug-and-play values. Last night, we all knew to play a bunch of Rockets. That team doesn’t exist yet for this slate, so playing multiple or even three studs is murky.
Players like Plumlee might make an awful lot of sense at this price range and we always like big men against Brooklyn. PlumDawg is quietly 12th in paint touches this season and Brooklyn sits 20th in paint points allowed. On top of that, the 1.05 FPPM is outstanding for the 16.5% usage Plumlee has. These two teams played in February in which Plumlee dropped 51 FD points with a 14/12/7 line. Could he be a super sneaky triple-double candidate? That’s asking a lot but it’s not totally out of the question.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
