Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12
We’ve got seven games tonight so that in theory means less chaos than Thursday. Of course, that’s just a theory and may not hold up at all. We already know the Sixers will be short-handed tonight and they draw the GOAT opponent for fantasy production in the Wizards. Likely, at least two other teams are also going to feature shortened rotations so let’s dive into the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 and find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 Injury Report
Sixers – Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons (O)
NOTE – Simmons does remain out but Embiid has a good chance to play. If he’s active, I would likely fade Tobias Harris (even though I do have him written up in case Biid sits) and focus on Embiid. He’s expensive, but the spot against the Wizards does not get better. On top of that, Embiid should be fairly rested and is looking for a potential MVP award this season.
Cavaliers – Larry Nance, Darius Garland (Q)
Pelicans – JJ Redick (Q)
Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap (Q), Gary Harris (O)
Magic – Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, James Ennis (Q), Cole Anthony (O), and Aaron Gordon wouldn’t be a surprise rest candidate
Spurs – DeMar DeRozan (O)
Heat – Bam Adebayo (Q)
Rockets – They could be without five or six players including John Wall, Victor Oladipo, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, and David Nwaba
Lakers – Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 Positions
Point Guard
Dejounte Murray ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD) – You can play Russell Westbrook if you like and he should have an easier time without Biid and Simmons in for Philly. However, Murray will draw a good deal of attention in this position. With LMA and DDR both out and or not with the team anymore, Murray will take center stage in the Spurs’ offense. His usage is up over 25% and the FPPM is 1.19 across the sample of 266 minutes. Orlando might not be anything special in pace but they are bottom 10 in defensive rating. A player like Murray can fill the stat sheet across the board and the price is very fair.
Malcolm Brogdon ($6,600 FD) – I’m only listing the FD price because I’m not terribly interested on DK. I’ll just play Murray for $500 less but the FD price is very appealing. It’s not often that we get Brogdon sub-$7,000 and I plan on taking advantage. The individual matchup against Dennis Schroder is very winnable. We do have to admit that the FPPM has slipped considerably to 1.08 but the usage is still massive at 27.4%. With Caris LeVert still not ready to make his Pacers debut, this offense runs through Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis. The Lakers are missing defensive anchor Anthony Davis and now Marc Gasol, making life a lot easier on opponents. Brogdon drives about 15 times per game and the path is there for a big game, especially at $6,600.
Shake Milton ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – He didn’t start last night but I honestly am not bothered by that at all. He’s still going to see plenty of minutes and the Sixers are missing a TON of offensive firepower without Biid and Simmons. To wit, Shake has played 270 minutes without those two and has a usage rate of over 30%. That’s massive and even if that’s because he’s a bench player, all the better. Having that high of usage and a 1.11 FPPM is always going to play and even more so when the matchup is against Washington’s highest pace in the NBA.
Honorable Mention – John Wall (could be without Dipo), Mike Conley, Michael Carter-Williams
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,700 DK) – I won’t really be playing him on FD and in honesty, I doubt he makes my cash lineup. Frankly, he just doesn’t draw enough attention to be popular most nights. Not having Simmons is a huge boost for a player like Beal. Simmons has a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year. Beal should be able to have a field day against a Philly team that played last night. He scored a very disappointing 40 DK points last game but went 6-22 from the field and only scored 21 real points. That’s not happening again and he’s under $10,000 on DK. That’s enough for me. I think this game stays closer than say, the Utah game. Donovan Mitchell looks great in a pace-up spot but that could be a blowout scenario and I’d use him in GPP-only tonight.
Note – Beal popped up questionable as I finished writing him up because of course, he did. If he’s out, Westbrook just takes center stage and we’ll use the model for the secondary plays.
Collin Sexton ($8,100 DK/$7,800 FD) – We play guards against the Pelicans and that goes double when they are ball-dominant guards like Sexton. I do have some sort of mental block when I see him over $8,000 on DK but the FD price is much more sensical. With Sexton, he’s an odd bird. The FPPM doesn’t look like anything crazy great at 0.98 but the usage is over 29%. He’s also shown ceiling with back-to-back 55+ DK point games before the break. He’s up to fifth in minutes per game on the season and that helps mitigate the FPPM. If there’s a slate to land on him for the ceiling play, this is one of them.
Seth Curry ($5,000 FD) – Over on DK, I’d likely play someone like Derrick White since the Spurs will be short and he’s cheaper. Curry is a little pricey on DK at $5,600 but he’ll play over 30 minutes without fail. The Wizards are giving up the fourth-highest field goal percentage from deep and Sous Chef is shooting almost 45% from beyond the arc this season. He’s too cheap in a fast-paced game with added opportunity and he won’t be the last Sixers either.
Honorable Mention – Victor Oladipo (I’d bet he has a high chance of sitting on a back-to-back), Lonnie Walker
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,200 DK/$9,600 FD) – Most of you know that I’m not much for the narrative plays, but Jimmy Buckets back in Chicago is a big exception. He’s a former Bull and has played them four times with 63, 36, 50, and 43 DK point results. The 36 is noteworthy because Butler was with the Sixers at that point, so it was a crowded team. With this version of the Heat, he is the offense and that’s going to be more the case if Bam Adebayo continues to sit out. Without the big man, Buckets is sitting at a 28.7% usage and an outrageous 1.54 FPPM. He’s a triple-double threat most nights right now and there’s a bonus narrative. These two teams are only a couple of games apart in seeding in the East. The games are growing more important with each passing day and Butler will have the chip on his shoulder tonight.
Micheal Porter Jr. ($6,700 FD) – The DK price has gotten out of control and we’ll have to see if the Nuggets get Green and/or Millsap back tonight. If they don’t, MPJ will be in line for about 30 minutes once again and the price is acceptable on FD since we need two. He’s worked himself up to a 1.02 FPPM when the Nuggets are on the short rotation, which isn’t too bad. Memphis is up to ninth in pace this year so that’s a big upgrade over 27th for the Nuggets. I’m never in love with MPJ in cash but he makes sense on FD, even if I’m likely to head further down the salary ladder tonight.
Justise Winslow ($4,500 DK/$4,700 FD) – This is interesting because I’m looking at Kevin Porter o some degree as well. He made his debut last night for the Rockets but this is being written before that game tips so I’m unsure on his role yet. What we’re not unsure of is the role Winslow has on the Grizzlies squad. I know Grayson Allen could be back but that’s not going to totally kill the 24% usage rate Winslow has had off the bench so far. Memphis reportedly really likes him since coming over from Miami and wants to integrate him into this team. As long as that’s the case and he’s this cheap, we can continue to play him.
Honorable Mention – LeBron James
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,800 DK/$9,000 FD) – There’s a red number on DK for the matchup tonight for Sabonis, but that’s very misleading. As I mentioned with Brogdon, the interior of the Lakers defense is extremely vulnerable right now and I’m here for it. Sabonis is fresh off a well-deserved All-Star Game and has a usage rate of just under 26% with a 1.27 FPPM. He also sports the seventh-most paint touches and the 10th most attempts in the paint. Add that to his fourth-most minutes per game and this is quietly a dynamite spot for the Pacers big man. He’s also more affordable after he was sitting in the five digits before the break, which is a nice bonus.
Tobias Harris ($8,300 DK/$7,800 FD) – FD at least tried to price him up for tonight, unlike last night, so that’s noteworthy. Regardless, he gets the same Washington matchup we talked about in the Shake Milton blurb and the field will go right back to Harris. They should, considering his usage is 29.6% and the FPPM leads the team at 1.22. The Wizards are in the bottom five in defensive rating and there’s not much else to break down about why Harris will be very, very popular tonight.
Rudy Gay ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – It’s not often that we have two Spurs in cash but they’ll be missing two vital components to their lineup. Enter Gay, who sports a usage rate of 24.6% and a 1.03 FPPM. He played nearly 27 minutes last game and there’s no reason to not expect that again since DDR would be missing. The Magic are fourth in rebounding on the season and Gay is going to need to help on the glass as he averages over five boards per game. The price is getting up there to feel completely comfortable but this slate is a good spot to use him.
Honorable Mention – Zion Williamson
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($10,300 DK/$9,900 FD) – I would be on Vuc if the Magic are still down multiple starters. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross sat yesterday and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Aaron Gordon sat tonight. He just missed weeks with an ankle injury. If that’s the case, Vucevic is going to have to carry this Magic squad and we did just see the ghost of Kristaps Porzingis go 28/14 on these Spurs. The price is high but that’s what happens when a player has a 34% usage and a 1.56 FPPM. Orlando needs him on the glass since San Antonio is 10th in rebounds and it’s a great spot for Vuc.
Kelly Olynyk ($5,700 DK/$4,500 FD) – I would be a little surprised if Bam plays tonight for the Heat. I mean, he just had a long break and still couldn’t make it back last night. That means Kelly O should draw another start and against the Bulls, we should be super interested. I would go so far as to say he’s the chalk since the Bulls have such issues on the interior. He doesn’t look like anything special with Bam on the court since he has a 0.87 FPPM but that’s plenty for the price. Additionally, Chicago is average in rebounding and 29th in paint points allowed. This is a perfect spot and on FD he is far, far too cheap if Bam is out.
Honorable Mention – Nikola Jokic (more on DK), Rudy Gobert, Justin Patton
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
