Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/1
We’re back with another seven-game slate that already has some injury concerns. The Sixers are the early team that the slate could hinge on and the Nuggets are once again down to a bare-bones rotation. It would be a surprise if we didn’t get other slate-changing news but let’s lay a foundation in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/1 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/1 Injury Report
Mavericks – Kristaps Porzingis (Q)
Magic – James Ennis (O)
Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb (Q)
Sixers – Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris (Q)
Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, RJ Hampton (O)
Jazz – Mike Conley (Q)
Nets – KD (O), Jeff Green, TLC (Q)
Spurs – Keldon Johnson (Q), Derrick White, Rudy Gay, Devin Vassell (O)
Cavaliers – Cedi Osman, Taurean Prince (Q)
Rockets – Christian Wood (O), Victor Oladipo (Q)
Hornets – TBD, they played with eight players last night
Blazers – Harry Giles (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/1 Positions
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving ($9,100 DK/$9,000 FD) – Kyrie is rested and ready to roll and just remains far too cheap. While KD is out, he should be closer to $10,000 since he has a 32% usage rate and a 1.34 FPPM when Durant is out. I will grant that some of the usage rate will come down since James Harden is on the team now but this is still an elite scorer in the NBA. The pace in this one should be outstanding as the Spurs and Nets are both in the top 10. That’s all I really need to know about Kyrie tonight but I will say he may not be likely to make the cash lineup. For some reason, folks just don’t seem to like to play him so he may not be popular enough to make him a priority. If they are in that salary range, Jamal Murray is probably going to be popular since the Nuggets are thin heading into an incredible spot against the Bulls.
Mike Conley ($6,500 DK/$6,200 FD) – Conley has made the article a lot lately but the price is still very palatable if he’s active. If he’s not, Joe Ingles is a must-play. One of these players will get the coveted “point guard against the Pelicans” role and we always want in on that one. Conley still is over 23% usage on the team and when he’s healthy plays 32-ish minutes per night. Despite both teams being lower in pace, New Orleans has been faster and this game could shoot out. I want the point guard for one of the best teams in basketball, be it Conley or Ingles.
Monte Morris ($4,900 DK/$4,800 FD) – If Jamal Murray is too expensive, you can consider getting exposure to the Nuggets this way. Denver has really only been giving about 7-8 players significant minutes lately and Morris is one of them with no less than 28 in the past five games. During that span, Morris has displayed a floor of 20 DK points and has a 0.76 FPPM. Adding in the elite pace-up spot with the second-ranked Bulls doesn’t hurt, nor does Chicago’s 21st ranked defensive rating. It’s a cheap way to get in on this game, especially on FD.
Honorable Mention –LaMelo Ball (very popular if Gordon Hayward is out), Damian Lillard
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($8,600 DK/$8,300 FD) – The price is getting up there just a bit, but the safety is hard to argue with. In the past 10 games, he’s been under 40 DK just twice and never below 35. Mitchell is seventh in the NBA in usage rate with or without Conley on the floor, so that’s not a deciding factor for me. The Pelicans sit third in three-point frequency allowed and Mitchell is shooting just under 39% from deep this year. Mitchell is also in the top 15 in spot-up points scored per game while the Pelicans are fourth-worst in spot-up points allowed. That’s quite the mix tonight.
Victor Oladipo ($7,700 DK/$7,600 FD) – I’ll walk this back if I’m wrong but this is my educated guess – John Wall sits tonight. It’s a back-to-back but there’s another factor. Dipo turned down an extension offer from the Rockets which was the most they could offer. He’s gone at the end of the season. It just makes good sense for Houston to sit Wall and let Dipo off the leash for 35+ minutes to try and showcase him to flip him. The sample with Wood and Wall both off the floor for Dipo is 140 minutes and he has a 31.1% usage rate. The FPPM is a gross 1.04 but that’s due in large part to a 44.5% true shooting rate. Even just on the Rockets, it’s a 48% rate and with the Pacers he was at 53.5%. The point is, that won’t stick. Seeing Collin Sexton and Darius Garland defense shouldn’t be a concern either.
Note – The final SG spot will be determined by the Hornets and who they have available. We may just go right back to Malik Monk if they still only have eight players and I wouldn’t hesitate. If not, Bruce Brown continues to chug along in the absence of KD and gets an elite pace spot with the Nets.
Honorable Mention – James Harden, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Jordan Clarkson (if no Conley)
Small Forward
Alright, I try not to do this very often but I’m going to cheat here a little bit. This position (especially on FD) is absolutely terrible. I can almost promise you for the 5,264th straight slate that Michael Porter Jr. is stone chalk on FD. The same logic of a short rotation applies and the Bulls matchup pace-wise makes too much sense. Let’s just look at the position overall.
Brandon Ingram is under $8,000 but the Utah spot isn’t exactly enthralling. I actually don’t mind Evan Fournier who will play 30+ minutes in a close game and can be lethal from deep. Dallas is eighth in three-point attempts allowed per night, so the spot fits him well. I may just use MPJ and Fournier on FD and move on. On DK, the positional flexibility helps. We could use Monk as noted earlier and on FD the SF eligibility actually would work in our favor. The only other player in the running as of now is Derrick Jones against a Charolette frontcourt that is a favorite target. The most likely combo now is MPJ and Fournier in my eyes.
Power Forward
P.J. Washington ($6,200 DK/$6,200 FD) – This is a play I like no matter what. It may come as a surprise that I’m not talking about the high end in salary with Damontas Sabonis and Zion Williamson but the matchups for them are no cakewalk. They aren’t cheap either so I’m looking to go lower in salary. Washington fits the bill as a player that can take advantage of the matchup against the Blazers. We’ve used forwards here all season and Washington went bonkers last night, scoring 20 real points in the first half. Just in the normal rate of play, Washington sits at nearly a full 1.00 FPPM. With Portland’s struggles against athletic forwards, Washington fits the bill quite well. That’s even more so the case if Charolette has a condensed rotation tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,600 FD) – I’m almost surely not going this route on DK since LMA is over $6,000. His minutes are right about as low as I’ll go but there’s exactly one aspect that we should be paying attention to. It’s the post-up game. Aldridge is top 20 in the league in post-up frequency and that’s been a huge problem for the Nets so far. When I say problem, I mean they give up the most points per game on post-ups on the season. On a slate where the top-end options look sketchy, LMA makes sense sub-$6,000 on FD. I just hope the pace doesn’t get him but he kept up against the Pelicans so that helps ease those fears.
Patrick Williams ($4,900 DK/$4,900 FD) – It’s been a minute since the rookie landed here, but this is as good a spot as any to take him. He’s under $5,000 on both sites and he’s just not coming off the floor, playing 31 minutes in four of the last five. He’s not going to be a high usage player on the team right now, but the 0.77 FPPM works with. these minutes. The Nuggets are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating and have struggle worse since they have been missing so many pieces. Scoring 25-30 DK points is not nearly out of the question tonight.
Honorable Mention – Robert Covington, Tobias Harris (would be a smash play if Embiid sits)
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DK/$11,000 FD) – At least the night before, Joker looks like the highest priority on the slate for me. He just posted 60+ DK points in just 30 minutes and is in one of the better spots he could ask for. Jokic isn’t a big paint player in the traditional sense, but he knows how to take advantage of a weaker frontcourt. Chicago gives up the third-most points in the paint and Big Honey should be able to bulldoze his way in there whenever he pleases. It was actually nice to see him get back to a triple-double status last game. For a bit, he was so focused on scoring that it didn’t seem like the assists came quite as easily. I’ll be placing a wager on a triple-double tonight.
Jarrett Allen ($8,500 DK/$7,900 FD) – On the 24th, Allen and the Cavs played the Rockets. This is what I wrote for that slate –
I feel like I can just write that Allen is going to be defended by P.J. Tucker and Ghost can just run in screaming, “Whoooooooooooo?” and you’d get the point. In seriousness, Allen is off the leash finally and he’s a fantasy monster so far. The last three games have seen him clear 32 minutes and not coincidentally, he’s posted at least 43 fantasy points. We just saw Wendell Carter from the Bulls annihilate this frontcourt and Boogie Cousins is a free agent. The upside here in a massive pace-up spot could approach 60 DK and I’m here for it.
He scored 61 DK that night with a massive double-double. The last game saw him flop with 33 DK but he still recorded a double-double while facing off against Joel Embiid. If that’s the floor against an elite center, we know how this story can end against the Rockets.
Honorable Mention – Enes Kanter, Nikola Vucevic
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