Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9
We’re back with another seven game slate tonight and we already have a big name player out in Kevin Durant. What’s going to be interesting there is the Nets play the Pistons, and there could be some concern with blowout there. There’s also plenty of other options at the high-end of salary, so let’s dig in for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 and figure out what paths we need for green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 Injury Report
Nets – Kevin Durant (O)
Pistons – Wayne Ellington, Delon Wright (O)
Heat – Goran Dragic (O)
Rockets – Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo (O)
Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)
Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier (O)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)
Celtics – Jaylen Brown (Q), Marcus Smart (O)
Jazz – Mike Conley (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 Postions
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,000 DK/$9,800 FD) – You can argue you don’t need to spend on Dame Time on DK, but FD he is severely mis-priced. Lillard was supposed to be one a minutes limit over the weekend and played 38 minutes, dropping 55 FD points. He’s not on the injury report now and should be ready to toll for his normal 36-40 minute workload. Lest we forget what he looks like without McCollum and Nurkic, Dame rocks a 31.4% usage rate and a 1.41 FPPM. Dame drives about 15 times per game and Orlando is just mid-pack in points allowed in the paint.
John Wall ($7,300 DK/$7,700 FD) – This is what I wrote about Wall just yesterday –
Wall played 32 minutes last game out for the first time since his injury, and that has my attention. Across 139 minutes with Christian Wood off the floor, Wall is leading the team with a monster 36.4% usage and his 1.25 FPPM is behind on DeMarcus Cousins. Since the James Harden trade, Houston leads the league in pace and New Orleans is 10th. I was honestly surprised at Wall looks like with Wood off, and if he’s playing 32-34 minutes this is a dynamite spot.
Now, let’s take Dipo off the floor since we know he’s out. Wall carries about the same usage and FPPM, and that’s only across 90 minutes. I would suspect him to be quite chalky against the Lonzo/Eric Bledsoe backcourt.
Kendrick Nunn ($5,600 DK/$5,000 FD) – It’s kind of the same deal with Nunn that it was the last time. He fits, and he’s palatable for 31 minutes of court time but I can’t say I love him. He’s very scoring dependent but with Dragic out, we can at least count on the minutes. Even the usage doesn’t look too shabby with a 24.4% rate, but the 0.89 FPPM isn’t special. I have a felling we’ll get other value to open up through the day.
Honorable Mention – Kyrie, Steph, Dejounte Murray
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($10,900 DK/$11,000 FD) – I get we’re worried about the blowout, but just look at last night. The Thunder were double-digit dogs, and carried a good game throughout. LeBron James went off as well, even though the Lakers couldn’t pull away early. This could be the same situation for Harden. Sure, Detroit should get straight housed. If they do, Harden has a 1.44 FPPM and 25.7% usage rate with Durant off the court. Even with Kyrie probable, Harden can put up a crooked number in three quarters without KD. The Pistons allow the third-highest field goal percentage from deep on top of everything else.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,000 DK/$5,000 FD) – Let’s go right back to the well, shall we? Clarkson let us down last game but it’s not hard to see why. He shot 7-19 from the field and 3-10 from deep. Even with that, Clarkson scored 17 points and hit 25 DK. A better shooting day easily brings him around 6x return and he played an extra five minutes above his season average. I will be very interested to see how the field reacts from last game. I’m still willing, but we could wind up leaving him off the lineup if the field doesn’t go here.
Sterling Brown ($3,200 DK/$3,800 FD) – Brown pushed 35% in cash yesterday and paid off. Now that he’s cheaper, we’re probably going to see the field flock to hm and I can’t really argue. The Rockets are in more or less the same spot, and need ball handlers past John Wall. Brown sports a 0.82 FPPM and the only factor that could change is Eric Gordon. If he plays, that does change the calculus and we could likely just pivot to Bruce Brown from the Nets.
Honorable Mention – DeMar DeRozan (better fit on DK), Tyrese Haliburton (price is getting up there)
Small Forward
Tobias Harris ($7,700 DK/$8,200 FD) – Harris is now PF only on DK, which is a small annoyance. Still, this is a great spot and we just saw that guys like Ben Simmons and Harris can have big games even with Joel Embiid playing. Harris only took 16 shots but has really been hitting the glass the past couple games with 23 total rebounds. The Kings are just 20th in rebounding and Harris has a 24% usage rate on the season in total. If paying up for Biid left a bad taste in your mouth last time, you could just roll out a player like Tobias to get exposure against the Kings. That’s something we always want.
Jerami Grant ($7,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – I haven’t been paying the price for Grant lately, and this isn’t just chasing the big game. This is going against the Nets, who sit seventh in pace since the Harden trade and 29th in defensive rating. Derrick Rose is out the door and Grant has a 26.8% usage and a 1.11 FPPM in that scenario. That’s solid as it is, but the game environment makes it even better. Now kick in that Gran is third in the NBA in minutes and it’s not hard to see him going off in this spot.
Joe Ingles ($5,800 DK/$4,500 FD) – Ingles is almost a carbon copy of Clarkson tonight. He looks somewhat pricey on DK, much better on FD and he’s coming off a terrible effort last game. In addition, he followed Clarkson’s lead with shooting and went 3-10 and 1-6 from deep. I won’t bank on that again, nor would I think he only gets three assists. Ingles was on the floor for 31 minutes last game and should be in line for the same tonight. Short memories in NBA!
Honorable Mention – RJ Barrett, Harrison Barnes
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($9,200 DK/$9,400 FD) – I would back off if Jaylen Brown played, but Tatum has to be the Celtics offense right now. Kemba Walker is working his way back from injury and is flighty. Tatum sits at a 34.2% usage rate with Smart and Brown off the floor so far, and that’s across 222 minutes. It’s not my favorite play, but let’s look at FD for PF.
The duo of Bam Adebayo and Julius Randle are very interesting. They just squared off and both went for over 45 FD points. Miami is 30th in rebounding so Randle can excel in that aspect of the game, and he just flirted with a triple-double even with Bam defending. They should both get 34 minutes or more and Bam has a 1.26 FPPM on the season. At least early, it looks like paying up at PF is the route to take. The value is non-existent but it’s also NBA, so something should pop up. We have a lot more flexibility on DK, so I’m not as worried.
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($8,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – I’m guessing that Vuc will be super chalk again, since he’s still under $9,000. Looking further into it, he gets the Enes Kanter defense so that’s a win for Vuc. With both Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier out, Vucevic is rocking a massive 35% usage and 1.47 FPPM. That’s not far off the Nikola Jokic mark of 30.4% and 1.61. We routinely pay five digits for Joker, so Vuc is a massive bargain and I will continue to hammer it. He should shoot at least 20 times and I don’t see why the field won’t play him tonight.
Mason Plumlee ($5,800 DK/$5,700 FD) – Is it a slate with the Nets on it if the opposing center isn’t written up? I’m more likely to use PlumDawg on DK, since I can play two centers. I believe I’ll have other priorities on FD but Plumlee is in that familiar smash spot. Brooklyn continues to get worked in the paint as they are dead last in paint points allowed. Plumlee is 12th in paint touches on the season and the Nets just cannot defend centers right now. Plum has a 1.04 FPPM and is on double-double alert here in my eyes.
Jakob Poeltl ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – I’m swiping my writeup for Poeltl from yesterday. He ended with an big double-double against these same Warriors, good for 38+ fantasy points on each site.
This is really a glorious spot for Poeltl. He only put up 18 DK last game but that was without hitting a shot. He legit went 0-6 from the field. I will grant that Draymond Green has been playing some inspired basketball, but Golden State is still 23rd in rebounding and 19th in paint points allowed. All Poeltl does is sit in the paint, with 7.4 touches as a mostly backup player. When we target a limited backup like Poeltl, we have to pick the spot carefully. Even with Green lurking, this seems like the spot to do it.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
