Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/6
Let’s get ready for some challllkkkkkk! Well, maybe. As of this writing Friday night, the Nets game is on but we know Kevin Durant will not play. Provided this game happens, James Harden and Kyrie Irving are going to be very popular. What’s interesting is for cash games, Joel Embiid is going to be heavily rostered so maybe we just go with one of the Nets, Embiid and fill out the rest. Let’s talk about that and the other eight games on the slate in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/6 to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/6 Injury Report
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen (D), Otto Porter, Wendel Carter (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon (O)
Raptors – OG Anunoby (O)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Trae Young, Kevin Huerter (Q)
Cavaliers – Larry Nance (Q)
Spurs – Dejounte Murray (Q), LaMarcus Aldridge (O), Lonnie Walker (O)
Rockets – Christian Wood (O), John Wall (Q)
Wolves – KAT (O)
Thunder – This game could potentially fall off the schedule. Theo Maledon is under Covid protocols. For this reason, I’m not going to feature Thunder players in the write ups. HOWEVER, if this game plays, you’ll go right back to 3-4 players in cash games. Hamidou Diallo, Al Horford, Isaiah Roby, Kenrich Williams and Justin Jackson are all prime cash candidates.
Nets – Kevin Durant (O)
Sixers – Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Seth Curry (Q)
Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O), Eric Paschall (Q)
Grizzlies – Brandon Clarke (Q)
Pistons – Keep an eye on Blake Griffin as a rest candidate
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/6 Positions
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving ($9,400 DK/$9,400 FD) – I of course won’t tell you you can’t play Luka Doncic or Steph Curry in this spot, but Kyrie is cheaper and and will be very popular. He’s cheaper than James Harden so if you play Embiid, Kyrie is likelier the easiest to afford from the Nets. Kyrie also has the higher usage rate than Harden (32.9% to 25.6%) and the higher FPPM (1.58 to 1.43). Harden only has 10 more minutes on the floor so the sample is about equal. This is just too easy when one of the big three is out for the Nets.
Derrick White ($4,700 DK/$5,400 FD) – Even if we leave Dejounte Murray on the floor and just take Walker and LMA off, White looks solid. He’s rocking a 20.4% usage rate and a 0.98 FPPM. Now we now that Murray could be out, which would only skyrocket White even further. If Murray plays, White still looks like a strong salary-saving option. He’s seen the minutes trend up returning from the broken toe to 25 last game. Houston is great defensively lately, but they also play at rocket speed (get it? Rocket speed!) and White needs under 30 DK points to hit 6x.
Cole Anthony ($5,700 DK/$5,000 FD) – The young buck looks like things could be clicking for him, reeling off three straight games of 16 real points or more. Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the league and Anthony took advantage of it last night with over 35 fantasy points. The Bulls can’t play defense and Anthony has a 25.3% usage rate and a 0.93 FPPM. Another metric that really supports Anthony is the fact Chicago is dead last in points per possession allowed to pick and roll ball handlers. Anthony is seventh is frequency at 50% on the season.
Honorable Mention – Steph, Luka, Kyle Lowry
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($10,700 DK/$10,800 FD) – It’s going to be easier to pull of the Kyrie/Harden/Biid stack on FD, but it can also be done in my eyes with the Thunder value. Anyways, we talked about Harden in the Kyrie blurb. There’s not a whole lot to add here and they will carry the load in KD’s absence. Kyrie is easier to fit, but Harden certainly isn’t a wrong play.
Norman Powell ($6,800 DK/$6,400 FD) – I’ll go right back to Powell in this spot, seeing as he played 36 minutes last night and should do that once again this evening. The Hawks are not great shakes defensively about mid-pack in defensive rating and both teams are average in pace. As long as OG is out, Powell is an option. I do think the best approach on FD is Harden up top (or possibly Victor Oladipo if John Wall is out) and then Diallo.
If the Thunder can’t play, take a look at double Nets with Bruce Brown. I absolutely love him on DK at $3,500. He starts when one of the big three sits normally and does plenty to hit 25ish DK. I will try to update the article tomorrow as we need, but please also know it could come in Discord due to work commitments.
Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, DeMar DeRozan (if Dejounte is out), Diallo, Bruch Brown, Tyrese Maxey (pending Sixers news)
Small Forward
Tobias Harris ($7,600 DK/$7,900 FD) – As much of a smash spot Embiid is in, the spot gets a lot better for Harris with KD is out as well. Durant is the best defender the Nets really have and Harris now gets a much easier night. Even with the full squad in, Harris has a 1.09 FPPM and 24% usage rate on the season. He’s shooting 44% from deep this year and arguably playing some of his best basketball. With the Nest playing so fast and no defense, Harris is a threat for 25+ real points and 5-7 boards.
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,200 DK/$5,400 FD) – Do we need much more of a reason to play him past the 40 minutes he logged last time out? Probably not, but let’s talk about it anyways. JTA only took eight shots and racked up 35 DK points, an impressive feat. I’m going to go ahead and say that Kelly Oubre doesn’t score 40 again, so there will likely be more shots to go around in this one. To be fair, JTA has a true shooting rate of 85% the past two games but he’s playing sooooooo many minutes, there’s still every reason to play him at this price.
Jae’Sean Tate ($5,000 DK/$5,400 FD) – I would likely only turn to Tate if the Thunder are off the slate, to be clear. With Wood out for the Rockets, he should continue seeing safe minutes in the low 30’s. Houston is raving about his defense, especially if you listen to reports around the league. There’s now extra rebounds to go around with Wood out and so far, Tate has a 0.95 FPPM on the season. There could be better options tonight but we could also potentially be down to 6-7 games tonight.
Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Joe Harris, Kent Bazemore (if Paschall is out again)
Power Forward
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,200 DK/$7,800 FD) – I honestly don’t know if I can get here tonight, but if I can KP will smash again. The 40ish fantasy points might not look super impressive until you realize two things. First, Porzingis played 25 minutes. That’s it. Secondly, he had just five rebounds. Bro, hit the glass! It’s the Warriors, who are bottom 10 in rebounding in the first place. They’re playing Draymond Green at center. Even with the non-existent defense, KP can drop 50 fantasy points in this matchup and should have last game.
Draymond Green ($6,000/$6,700 FD) – If Green had played his full run, he would have triple-doubled last game. He only needed four more rebounds with 11 points and 15 assists. In the past two games, it’s been prime Draymond once again. His usage looks ridiculous at 13% but the FPPM is 1.18. He’s posted 32 FD points or more in both and what was most impressive last time – zero blocks or steals. Dray is playing center and the Warriors need him on the floor literally as much as he can handle.
Patrick Williams ($4,400 DK/$4,300 FD) – Williams had seen his minutes trending up the past couple of games, but I didn’t want to trust it for cash. That changes tonight since the Bulls look like they’ll be without Lauri Markkanen and Williams played 33 minutes last night. The Bulls are short-handed and will be leaning on the rookie again in this spot. Across a 72 minutes amps, Williams has a 1.00 FPPM and a 21.7% usage rate. That’s more than enough at this pricing. He’s up there with Thunder value as priority if the Bulls are missing as many as they could be.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, Zion
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,500 DK/$10,500 FD) – This is the type of spot dreams are made of. The Nets may as well throw me under the hoop for how well they defend the paint and Pascal Siakam just hung 30+ points on them. No disrespect to Spicy P, but Embiid is far superior in every way down low. Biid leads the league in post ups, points off that play type at 9.3 per game (Joker is second at 6.3) and is 10th in rebounding chances per game. The ONLY reason he’s not in my cash lineup is if he’s not active or this game doesn’t play. That’s it, that’s the list.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – We need a backup at that price point just in case, and wouldn’t you know it? Vuc gets he Bulls again. All he did to them last night was scorch them for a 43/19/4 line and rack up 70+ fantasy points. There’s nothing to stop him from doing it again, as the Bulls are literally in the same spot. He’s the offense for the Magic and while I wouldn’t expect 70, Vuc is still underpriced for this incredible matchup.
DeMarcus Cousins ($6,300 DK/$5,900 FD) – Alright, so I sort of lied. You could MAYBE talk me into playing Boogie on FD over Embiid for nearly $5,000 less. I would want to see what ownership projects at tomorrow before declaring on FD. Center is LOADED tonight as well. Still, I really want to lock in Biid/Boogie on DK since both are in such good spots. With Wood off the floor this season, Cousins has a 1.38 FPPM on a 25% usage rate. That comes with a true shooting under 49%. Additionally, Jakob Poeltl is going to have a tough time with Cousins down low. He’s simply too cheap on both sites. In GPP, I’d have shares of both on FD.
Honorable Mention – Clint Capela, Al Horford, Steven Adams, Naz Reid
Note – Please refer to the Thunder injury report to see my thoughts on them for cash since none were written up!
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