Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/4
It’s just a five game slate tonight and these style of slates tend to be ones we enjoy more. There’s five of the 10 teams on a back to back, so I tend to think value will not be a big issue. We have a marquee matchup in the late night hammer between Denver and the LA Lakers which is going to attract attention. However, there’s still a ton of great options tonight for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/4 to find those green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/4 Injury Report
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic (O)
Warriors – Kevan Looney, James Wiseman (O)
Blazers – Damian Lillard (Q)
Grizzlies – JoVal, Jaren Jackson, Grayson Allen (O)
Nuggets – Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/4 Positions
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,900 DK/$11,300 FD) – Is Luka’s price up there? Of course it is. However, this is a really great spot for him. I would guess that Kristaps Porzingis could sit tonight. It’s a back to back and they need KP desperately to make any noise later in the year. Also, the Warriors have no bigs right now. They’ll be down Looney, Wiseman and they have nobody past Draymond Green to help guard the paint. Not only does Luka drive the most in the league at over 24 per game, but Luka is over a 38% usage rate without KP. Now we add in the Warriors play at the fourth-fastest pace and we have all the makings of a smash spot for Luka. Even if KP plays, I still love him in this game.
Steph Curry ($9,800 DK/$9,900 FD) – Since Dallas is 19th in defensive rating, this seems like a good time to potentially run it back with Curry. Now, we certainly don’t need to go there in cash with how loaded the slate is. It’s also still a very appealing game to target. We’re going to have a punt from this team later, but Curry is the main man. He’s up to a 1.43 FPPM and Dallas is allowing over 40% in three point frequency. Steph was only 5% rostered last slate so I wonder where he’s projected tonight.
John Wall ($6,900 DK/$7,500 FD) – Another educated guess is Victor Oladipo sits tonight, and the Rockets tailor-made the switch of Wall last night. When we look at his minutes, the last competitive game he played 30 minutes. We always pick on Ja Morant defense and this slate should not be any different. When Dipo has been off the floor, Wall has a 1.33 FPPM and a 31.3% usage rate. Both these teams are in the top 15 in pace after the James Harden and Wall is an elite play at the DK salary especially.
Honorable Mention – Ja Morant, Anfernee Simons
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – I feel like he’s going to be very popular on FD with a dearth of options at the high end. It’s a pace up spot for Mitchell and they can’t handle primary ball handlers at all. Spida has a 31.3% usage rate on the season and despite the Hawks being third-best in made three pointers allowed, Mitchell is shooting over 40% from deep. He’s sitting in the top-25 in real points scored per game and is flirting with 34 minutes a night. I love Mitchell tonight, but past FD I don’t know how much I’ll play him with the other studs available.
Gary Trent ($6,200 DK/$6,300 FD) – I really dislike the price, but I can’t argue with the minutes at all. It’s a broken record with Trent – he’s not going to do a lot but score, but he can put up 20+ on any given night. In fairness to him, he’s shooting 45% from deep on 120 attempts so he can get hot any given slate. In three of the last four, he’s hit seven, four and seven triples. He’s also played 38, 37 and 40 minutes in those games. If Dame happens to be out, he might shoot 25+ times. Even if Dame plays, Trent is going to chuck it.
Honorable Mention – Tim Hardaway is going to be a very popular option on FD especially if Porzingis is out. Past that, it is very dicey at this spot. Rodney Hood is in the running for sure with 35 minutes played and Nasir Little has already been ruled out. If KP plays, I think we’re down to Mitchell and either Portland player as the best duo on FD.
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,000 DK/$10,700 FD) – Marquee game against the same team the Lakers beat in the West Finals like three weeks ago? Sign me up for LeBron. This is the only game that starts at 10 PM, so the NBA world will have all eyes on it. We’ve become numb to how good LeBron is at this juncture, with a 31% usage and a 1.44 FPPM. Who on Denver really guards him? Will Barton? Michael Porter (lol)? With Gary Harris out, the team defense takes a bit of a hit and Denver is already 18th in defensive rating. I think LeBron gives us the best affordability/ceiling combo since Nikola Jokic is $1,000 more on DK.
Will Barton ($5,200 DK/$5,200 FD) – With Harris out, Barton was scheduled start the las game before a postponement. The Nuggets come into this one rested a bit, and Barton should slide into the lineup like we thought. Honestly, I’m not sure how much Porter plays in this one unless Barton gets into foul trouble. Coach Mike Malone didn’t have the luxury of Will Barton in the bubble and Porter’s deficiencies on the defensive end are well-known at this point. Barton only has a 0.80 FPPM on the season with Harris off the floor, but if he plays 30 minutes or more he makes plenty of sense.
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($3,500 DK/$4,900 FD) – He’s going to be the punt of the day on DK at the PF position, I suspect. After Looney left the floor with his injury, JTA (I’m not spelling it every time, he’s JTA now like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is SGA. I have spoken) played a lot. He was the direct sub while Looney was playing, and then played 18 of a possible 26 minutes after Looney left. The Warriors have no choice but to play small here. I doubt he goes 6-9 from the floor tonight, but the minutes at this salary can’t be overlooked.
Honorable Mention – Carmelo Anthony (especially if Dame missed), Dorian Finney-Smith if you’re really stuck
Power Forward
Christian Wood ($8,800 DK/$8,900 FD) – There’s a couple things here. First, Anthony Davis is perfectly fine on either site but I’m not likely to play he and LeBron together and I’m mostly only playing him on DK since he’s still sub-$10,000. Secondly, if Porzingis does play he’s my favorite PF on the entire slate. The Unicorn will eat against the Warriors “interior”.
As for Wood, he was disappointing last night to be sure. He also played just 22 minutes so I would guess Houston knew they were on a back to back, knew the game was out of reach and went easy on him. With JoVal still out, Memphis can be had down low and Wood plays an all-around game. Memphis is 23rd in points allowed in the paint and Wood is fifth in paint points scored on the season Minutes shouldn’t be an issue tonight and I’m in if he’s the lone gun up top in salary on FD.
Draymond Green ($5,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – Coach Steve Kerr said after the game that Dray would have to play longer stretches and he wasn’t kidding. The 36 minutes for Green was a season high on Tuesday and that’s likely not changing for the next couple of weeks. Is Green what he once was? Not particularly, but Dray has a 0.86 FPPM with Wiseman and Looney off the court. That’s with an astonishingly bad 29.8% rue shooting rate. I didn’t even know such a thing was possible. However, Dallas is 28th in rebounding and Dray is still one of the only players in the NBA that can post 32 FD points on TWO REAL POINTS. If he’s playing 32+, he’s a value at this salary.
Honorable Mention – Brandon Clarke, Robert Covington, Xavier Tillman, Eric Paschall (gross, and you can’t use him as a C on FD)
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,000 FD) – There’s not a lot say with Joker. If you look at the regular season history against Anthony Davis, it’s not that great. Only a couple times has Jokic cracked 50 DK. However, he’s in top form right now and has a 1.76 FPPM with Harris off the court. In the bubble, he averaged about 22/7/5 and that version was positively exhausted. I don’t worry about Jokic here against Davis, it’s more that I can’t afford him. If I were to spend at center, it could easily be the next player.
Joel Embiid ($10,200 DK/$10,200 FD) – It’s been about 14 months, but the last time Embiid saw Enes Kanter defense he racked up a massive 38/13 for 66 DK points. Now, this is outside what we normally do but if Dame is out (I tend to think he plays), I want nothing to do with Philly. There’s no way I think the game can stick close. If Lillard plays, Biid should be able to utterly nuke Kanter on post ups. Biid leads the league in post up frequency and as the man Ghost likes to say, “Good Night Jim Kite”. We saw nearly 60 DK from Biid last night and I would expect about the same result tonight if the game stays within range.
Gorgui Dieng ($4,400 DK/$5,300 FD) – If you’re searching for a cheaper center, Dieng really fits the bill. Since JoVal is still out of action, Dieng has been seeing significant run with 25, 24 and 26 minutes over the past three games. Houston has really been pushing the pace and are just average in rebounds per game so far. Dieng has a 1.16 FPPM with the scenario at play tonight, which is second behind Ja. He’s one of the few lower-tier options at the position as we sit Thursday night.
Honorable Mention – Willie Cauley-Stein (if no KP), Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela
*Update* – This slate was turned on its head with the news that Damian Lillard is out. The Blazers only have nine players active and Kejlin Blevins has been there for seven games and averages 4.5 minutes per game. For our purposes, this is basically an eight man roster.
That means for cash games, I think you lock in three to four Blazers. No matter what the score is, these guys are going to see the court. Anfernee Simons and Rodney Hood are the two projected to be the highest-rostered on Portland. Then you can add in Gary Trent Jr. and even Carmelo Anthony if you wish. That still leaves you with over $7,000 per spot on DK. On DK, John Wall and Luka Doncic project as the next highest priorities.
On FD, you can run the same four if you like or boot Simons for Wall and Luka at PG. Kristaps Porzingis becomes a VERY high priority for me on FD since he’s active tonight and in an amazing spot.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
