Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/3
We have a big ten game slate tonight and there are a ton of spots to get behind. We can expect plenty of chaos on slates this size, but hopefully nothing too crazy. There’s teams on back to backs but there’s not a ton of injury news as of yet. We can bet that will change but let’s lay the groundwork for the slate in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/3 to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/3 Injury Report
Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q), P.j. Washington (O)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O)
Clippers – Patrick Beverly (O) – Kawhi Leonard has normally say in back to back spots, even though he played once earlier this year. Keep an eye on that spot. Coming off a national TV game, it makes sense if one of Kawhi or Paul George sits out here.
Cavaliers – Andre Drummond (Q), Larry Nance (O)
Rockets – John Wall (O)
Thunder – George Hill, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (O)
Wolves – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell, Naz Reid, Juancho Hernangomez (Q)
Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O)
Pelicans – Steven Adams (Q)
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O)
Wizards – Russell Westbrook typically sits on back to backs, so that would be my expectation tonight.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/3 Positions
Point Guard
Chris Paul ($8,300 DK/$8,000 FD) – I thought about kicking this off with Luka Doncic vs Trae Young, but I may reserve that for GPP. Those players are intertwined thanks to a draft day trade that brought each player to their respective team. I’m not sure we need to spend that high, so I may just turn to CP3. He’s on an absolute tear right now and last game even came with Devin Booker back. Paul gets a spot against a Pelicans team that is top five in pace for about the last month and has no good defenders at the guard position. Eric Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball won’t put a stop to the veteran. He leads the team with a 1.14 FPPM and a massive 40.8% assist rate on just a 23.5% usage rate.
Dejounte Murray ($6,400 DK/$6,900 FD) – This game as a whole could be a quiet shootout, as the teams play at the fifth and 10th fastest pace in the league. The Spurs are without LMA and that adds 2% to Murray’s usage rate. The Wolves have no on ball defender that worries us. They are also 16th in turnovers per game and Murray is 13th in steals per game. There are plenty of chances for transition buckets and this is where Murray’s all around game could really shine.
Reggie Jackson ($5,400 DK/$5,500 FD) – This is on the assumption that Kawhi sits out, as the Clips would be without him and Beverly. In that scenario, Jackson has a 20.2% usage rate and would be one of the main ball handlers in the offense other than Paul George. Jackson also has a 0.99 FPPM which is he gets 30 minute, is right about where we need him to be. The pace on these teams is slow and the defense is going to be at the forefront, but the salary is too low for Jackson if Kawhi is out.
Ish Smith ($4,800 DK/$4,600 FD) – With Westy likely out, Raul Neto has been the go to player. However, he’s out too which means Ish is going to jump to the forefront. When we take those players off the floor, Smith actually has the largest sample size in minutes on the team at 146 minutes. He has a 1.00 FPPM despite only a 16.5% usage and a 42% true shooting rate. Those numbers are terrible and he’s still at a point per minute. Part of it is the sizable assist rate at 32.5%. If Ish plays 28-30 minutes like we should expect, he’s a great value on this slate.
Honorable Mention – Luka, Trae Young, LaMelo Ball (if Rozier is out but don’t love it)
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,700 DK/$10,800 FD) – Beal is tough to overlook if Westbrook is out. You can argue that he’s a bit too pricey on FD, and I guess I would understand. Still, he’s a MONSTER without Westy by the stats this year. We have 133 minutes without Westbrook and Neto on the floor this year. Beal is at a 43.5% usage rate and a 1.84 FPPM. Those aren’t typos. Those numbers are comparable to Giannis from last year, when he was the league MVP. To get that type of involvement for his price tonight is practically stealing. When we think Giannis or Luka are good plays, we don’t hesitate to pay five digits. We definitely shouldn’t tonight either and on DK the price is super low.
Victor Oladipo ($7,800 DK/$8,200 FD) – We have some serious choices up top at SG tonight. Dipo is going to benefit in a big way with John Wall already ruled out. He picks up 3.3% in usage rate to climb over 34% in about 139 minutes so far to go with a 1.38 FPPM. Now, one of the deciding factors could be the opposition. The Thunder will be down SGA and it’s hard to see them keeping this game super competitive. I know we don’t usually take that route, but when we have this trio in front of us, it could be the deal breaker. I expect Dipo and Wood to carry the offense, but I think he would be third behind Beal and the next player.
Paul George ($8,700 DK/$8,400 FD) – Assuming Kawhi sits, PG13 is about to be utter chalk tonight I would think. His price went down a bit on DK, and it stayed the same on FD. If someone wants to fade because of a shaky outing fantasy-wise Tuesday night, that’s on them. With Kawhi and Beverly off the floor this year, George has a massive 33% usage rate and a 1.22 FPPM. The Cavs are in the top seven in points allowed and they have a good team defense. They also don’t have a lot of primary defenders that could handle PG. He’s simply too cheap if he’s the offense tonight.
Hamidou Diallo ($4,500 DK/$4,300 FD) – We were careful with Diallo last game and he only played 15 minutes. He also put up 26 DK points and the Thunder really don’t have much choice but to give him some significant minutes tonight. With SGA and Hill off the floor, Diallo is rocking a 27.5% usage and a 1.24 FPPM. Really, this guy just needs some minutes and he has to get them tonight. Even if this game doesn’t stay close, the Rockets are playing at such a fast pace he can pile stats up in a hurry.
Honorable Mention – DeMar DeRozan (if Kawhi would play, he would take the spot of PG13 for me), maybe Malik Monk but let’s see who’s active for Charlotte. Do not expect what you got last game.
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($8,400 DK/$8,500 FD) – Hello Jimmy Buckets, welcome to my lineups. Just as an example, you can plug in Beal, Butler, Diallo and another Thunder player coming up and have $5,750 left on DK. My point is it’s going to be easier to afford Butler, who has come back from Covid like nothing ever happened. He’s logged 34 and 37 minutes and even with an OT packed in, Butler has exceeded 50 DK in both games. Now he gets a Washington team on a back to back and we’ve attacked relentlessly all season long. This is the Butler spot and he’s not even all that expensive.
Keldon Johnson ($6,100 DK/$5,700 FD) – I’m a little more interested over on FD, but with LMA out there’s opportunity for the Spurs players. Johnson is one of them and he never seems to be highly rostered. That doesn’t mean he can’t be tonight and has a 1.15 FPPM with LMA out. That’s just a notch higher than Dejounte Murray, and Johnson is significantly cheaper on the site I need two SF options. With a matchup against the Wolves, this is a good spot for Johnson to drop 20+ real points or more considering the Wolves have the 23rd ranked defensive rating.
Rui Hachimura ($5,400 DK/$4,700 FD) – I’m not likely going here because I don’t need to. However, Rui got back in the saddle last night and played 34 minutes with 24 real points. Sure, he’s not going to go 10-12 from the field again but at $4,700, you don’t need him too. Washington is likely to be short one of their better players tonight and Hachi has a 1.06 FPPM with Westy off the floor. The real issue with him is there’s a cheaper player who everyone is playing, so don’t fall in love here.
Lu Dort ($4,400 DK/$4,400 FD) – I will be totally honest – I don’t love this play for GPP. Dort is going to be heavy chalk, and that should scare you. Just look at the last five games. Not one has been over 19 DK, and the floor is more towards 10. His shot is a total guess every single night, but we have to eat the chalk in cash. If the shot is right, he could post 30-35 DK and that would be tough to recover from. We have a super small 22 minute sample in the scenario tonight, but Dort has a 32% usage rate. His true shooting in that sample is 59.5% and he’s still only at a 1.12 FPPM. Like I mentioned, eat the chalk in cash but it’s a 10 game slate. I’ll take my chances fading a 35-40% Dort in GPP. Dort and Butler look like the chalky SF duo to my eyes, at least the night before.
Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, RJ Barrett, Eric Gordon
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($8,900 DK/$9,500 FD) – I’m heading right back to the well with Tatum. At an educated guess, Kemba Walker could sit on a back to back. That’s what happened just about a week ago, so keep an eye on that. If that happens, Tatum and Brown are going to have to carry the entirety of the offense. Tatum is over a 1.50 FPPM in that scenario, and the Kings are a perfect spot for him to pour in the buckets. They are top five in pace and bottom five in real points. Wheels up, especially if Kemba sits out.
Christian Wood ($8,600 DK/$8,900 FD) – I don’t see myself using him on DK since he’s a center and there’s a high-priced option we’ll get to. FD is different since he’s PF and reasonably priced. He’s cleared 40 FD points in the past two games despite playing just 26 and 27 minutes. Wood has a 1.46 FPPM without Wall, which reds the Rockets and an excellent 27.5% usage rate. It’s going to be tough to get a body on Wood as he can play inside and outside, something Al Horford is going to struggle with. If he gets 30 minutes tonight, we should be looking at 50 FD points.
Miles Bridges ($4,600 DK/$4,200 FD) – He is only SF on FD so I’m not likely to use him with Dort sitting right there. He should step into the starting lineup tonight and likely would have been heavy chalk if we weren’t looking at OKC. With P.J. Washington already ruled out, Bridges could potentially see 30 minutes and has a 0.83 FPPM in over 300 minutes. He’s already been playing 24-28 minutes per night but with added chances and Washington out, he’s a hair too cheap. I would suspect people don’t turn to him tonight with the other options.
Honorable Mention – Damontas SaGOATis, Giannis, Julius Randle, Jarrett Allen (if Drummond is out)
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,000 DK/$10,200 FD) – Of everything in front of us tonight, Embiid might well be my favorite play for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/3. We’ve picked on the interior of the Hornets all year and Biid is having an MVP-style campaign. He’s going to terrorize Charolette and will get whatever shot he pleases. They are 19th in rebounding and 29th in paint points allowed. On the year, Embiid is averaging 1.60 FPPM and sits fifth in usage rate across the league. Smash. Spot. I will have him all over and he’s a building block in cash for me. If Westbrook sits, it’s Biid and Beal at the high-end. If Westy plays, Butler would be my next man up.
Jakob Poeltl ($4,600 DK) – With Embiid being such a high priority for me, I’m going light on the options at center tonight. I’ll list some more in Honorable Mention but Biid is the man on FD for me in a big way and I’m likely pairing these two on DK quite a bit. Poeltl is always our go-to when LMA is out, as he enters the starting lineup. Even in a backup role, Poeltl has seven paint touches per game. That’s the entirety of what he does. Minnesota is 20th in paint points allowed and 23rd in rebounding. Poeltl has a 0.91 FPPM and a prime matchup on tap.
Honorable Mention – Clint Capela, Al Horford, Myles Turner, Cody Zeller, Deandre Ayton
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