Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/28
We’ve got a sizable slate on our hands tonight with eight games in the association. There’s a lot of choices to go through and plenty of teams on a back-to-back set. I’m sure we’ll get the normal chaos we always do but we can lay the groundwork in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/28 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/28 Injury Report
Celtics – Jaylen Brown (Q)
Raptors – Pascal Siakam (O)
Knicks – Elf Payton (Q)
Pistons – Delon Wright (O)
Grizzlies – Grayson Allen (O)
Rockets – Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo (O)
Hawks – Trae Young, Cam Reddish, Danilo Gallinari (Q), De’Andre Hunter (O)
Heat – Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro (Q)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham, Caleb Martin (O), Cody Zeller, Gordon Hayward (Q)
Kings – Tyrese Haliburton, Hassan Whiteside (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/28 Positions
Point Guard
Kyle Lowry ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – Russell Westbrook is still badly mispriced on FD and he may not play tonight on a back-to-back. That means we’re starting with the Raptors’ point guard. We know that they are missing Siakam and that’s a big deal. Lowry sees a bump in the usage of 3.4% to get to 25.5% and the FPPM is 1.17. Now add in the elite matchup against the Bulls who are the fourth-fastest team in pace and the 10th worst team in defensive rating. It’s not hard to see why Lowry (and other Raptors) are going to stand out this evening.
Chris Paul ($7,800 DK/$7,500 FD) – The Point God makes another appearance in the cash article due to his reliability and matchup tonight. Minnesota is a gigantic pace-up spot for the Suns since the Wolves are eighth and the Suns are 29th. Not only has CP3 logged at least 36 FD points in seven of the past nine games, but he’s also still leading the Suns at a 1.19 FPPM. That’s coming on just a 23.1% usage rate but you can fully expect Paul to exploit the youth/inexperience in the Wolves lineup tonight.
Goran Dragic ($5,400 DK/$5,500 FD) – There was going to be a point where Dragic was simply too cheap. He was out of action for a long time and the price was low, and now he’s played 32 minutes in a game. I’m in for that reason right off the bat but now we add in the matchup against Atlanta and Trae Young defense. The Hawks haven’t run at the breakneck pace of last year but 15th in the league isn’t terrible. Even if you just run the Heat with no player off the court, Dragic is sitting at a 26.9% usage and a 1.02 FPPM. That makes too much sense tonight.
Honorable Mention – John Wall, Lamelo Ball (FD), Dennis Schroeder
Shooting Guard
Fred VanVleet ($8,500 DK/$8,400 FD) – When we look across the landscape of the Raptors when Siakam is on the floor, FVV stands out since he leads in usage at 28.9% and FPPM at 1.26. This is the spot we want FVV and Lowry since both can find ceilings in this game environment. Since he’s playing an average of 36 minutes per night, you can virtually bank on at least 40 fantasy points. If FVV gets hot from deep, the ceiling is still there as well. I’d have zero issues playing Lowry+FVV given the Bulls matchup.
Josh Jackson ($6,200 DK/$5,700 FD) – FD just doesn’t want to move Jackson’s price, and he’s continuing to put up big games for fantasy purposes. We talked about this last time but the move to the bench has worked with him lately, playing 28-32 minutes per game and posted at least 30 fantasy points every single game of the last four. The matchup on paper doesn’t do any favors since both teams are bottom five in points, but usage off the bench with these minutes makes it all work.
Eric Gordon ($6,000 DK/$5,300 FD) – With Oladipo out, Gordon enters the cash conversation though I’d prefer to leave him on FD only. Let’s face it, 36 DK for Gordon for the 6x we love for cash isn’t super likely. That’s because the 0.98 FPPM with Harden and Cousins off the floor with Dipo is acceptable but not special. The usage is great at 27.4% and the true shooting rate is 57.4%. This would tell me that he’s about where he should be with his shot, meaning he’s more of a floor play unless he’s hot from the field.
Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Bradley Beal Rule, Anthony Edwards
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,800 DK/$11,000 FD) – Last slate, LeBron had a beautiful matchup against the Blazers and virtually nobody played him. I would hope that’s different this time around with another big-time pace-up spot since the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the league. The Lakers are bottom five so this is perfect for LeBron. I will grant anyone that Draymond Green is playing inspired hoops. However, I’m also not scared of his defensive abilities when I’m playing LeBron. The lakers are going to go as LeBron goes right now and these games are the ones they have to win while AD is out to maintain their spot in the West.
Shaddiq Bey ($5,700 DK/$5,100 FD) – It feels odd to be writing up more Pistons but we chase minutes in the lower rungs of the salary range. Bey fits that exactly since he’s playing 30 minutes at least every night since Blake Griffin is done. Even on a tiny 17.3% usage, the FPPM is 0.85. For reference, Jerami Grant has a 1.05 FPPM so Bey is holding his own. New York gives up the fifth-highest three-point frequency this year and Bey is over 41% from deep. I can tell you right now if his prop is 2.5, I’m hitting the over.
Note – I’m cheating a little here because I will ABSOLUTELY NOT play Justise Winslow in cash unless he’s projected chalk. The bottom line is the Grizzlies are giving him minutes with 21, 26, and 22 so far. He’s hit 19 DK in two and shot 1-10 in the other. There’s too much meat on the bone for $3,400 to not have some exposure although it’s likely going to be in GPP.
Honorable Mention – Jimmy Buckets, Norman Powell (If not playing one of the other two Raptors, three is too much for me)
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,500 DK/$8,900 FD) – Jayson Tatum might get plenty of attention and he should. Boston hasn’t forgotten getting massacred by the Wizards the last time they played. If Jaylen Brown is out, maybe we go there. I think this should be the last player from this game, but we cannot ignore Randle tonight. The man just doesn’t come off the court as he’s fourth in the league in minutes. That’s always going to be interesting. Detroit is average in paint points allowed but they are 27th in rebounding. Randle is averaging 1.27 FPPM on the season with a 27.7% usage rate and leads the team with a 24.9% assist rate. Getting 35 minutes against this vulnerable Pistons frontcourt is a recipe for a smash spot for Randle tonight. As an aside, the Knicks are .500 and it is basically March. Times are strange on the hardcourt.
Marvin Bagley ($6,200 DK/$6,200 FD) – Do I wish Bagley played more than 24-28 minutes a night? I sure do and Luke Walton is …. questionable as a coach. However, Bagley is cash viable even on the minutes against the Charlotte frontcourt. They just get hammered every night and are 28th in paint points to go along with 16th in rebounding. Bagley has started to put it together for fantasy lately and I’m in tonight since the game should play fast in pace and both teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating. P.J. Washington also has my interest if he starts and Charolette goes smaller.
Daniel Theis ($5,200 DK/$4,900 FD) – I wanted to look at Time Lord (Robert Williams) here against the Wizards but I can’t rely on the minutes. Theis has a much safer floor in that respect and has played at least 26 in four of the past five. His size should give the Wizards some issues as they are 26th in paint points and 25th in paint rebounds on the season. Dipping under $5,000 on FD is really nice and he’s got some flexibility on DK. It’s a good way to get a piece of this game.
Honorable Mention – Tatum, Chris Boucher, Kyle Kuzma
Center
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 DK/$7,400 FD) – Remember a few days ago and the Cavs played the Rockets and we LOVED Jarrett Allen and he put up a 60 spot? Rinse and repeat for the Memphis big man. He’s leading the team in FPPM with a 1.27 FPPM and this is one of the better matchups he can get. The Rockets are undersized with no Boogie and no Wood and vulnerable in the paint. My Name Is Jonas sits fifth in paint touches on the year so every metric we want lines up tonight. I’ll never tell you to not play Karl Anthony-Towns but I believe JoVal might be a better point per dollar play tonight.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,000 DK/$6,300 FD) – The price is starting to get up there a bit, but when we see a guy like PJ Washington go ham on this frontcourt, Trez has to interest us. He actually has a usage of over 22% which is surprising to me and matches it with a 1.08 FPPM. Golden State is 19th in paint points allowed and dead last in paint rebounds, which is exactly what we like to see when targeting Trez. He should also thrive in this game environment like he did last game.
Honorable Mention – KAT, Deandre Ayton, Wendel Carter, Richaun Holmes
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
