Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/27
This slate looks like an absolute blast at first glance. I’m not even sure which spot I like best as there are quite a few that stand out. We get the Mavericks against the Nets, T’Wolves against the Wizards, and my man Zion again. Let’s not waste any more time and dive in to build the foundation for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/27 to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/27 Injury Report
Cavaliers – Larry Nance, Taurean Prince (O)
Sixers – Tobias Harris (O)
Wolves – Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russel (O)
Wizards – Davis Bertans (Q)
Knicks – Elfrid Payton (D)
Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris (O), PJ Dozier (Q)
Thunder – Hamidou Diallo, George Hill (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony, Jame Ennis (O)
Spurs – DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge (Q), Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Rudy Gay (O)
Nets – Kevin Durant (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/27 Positions
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($9,900 DK/$9,400 FD) – What does this man need to do to get some pricing respect around here? DK is competitive at least but FD is lagging. Russ isn’t exactly reliving the glory days of his MVP season, but he is extremely viable tonight. These two teams are inside the top-eight in pace on the season and in the bottom seven in defensive rating. We love to see it and West has a usage rate over 30% and the 1.37 FPPM is almost identical to 1.39 for teammate Bradley Beal. His true shooting rate is just 48.1% but he’s said himself that the health is improving. The shot won’t be too far behind. This is too good of a spot for a player to be under $10,000 on either site tonight. It will be interesting to see where West comes in versus Ben Simmons since the Sixers are without Tobias Harris.
Dejounte Murray ($7,900 DK/$8,200 FD) – I can already hear Brian licking his chops to play Dejounte Murray here. He’s been killing the Pelicans with point guards for weeks. To get a talented player like Murray on a short rotation is going to be too good to pass up. DeMar DeRozan might play, but even if he does the Spurs will be short three important rotation players. Leaving DDR on the floor and taking the others off still leaves Murray with a 26.5% usage and a 1.34 usage, both team-leading marks. I like using Murray when there are fewer chances he sees low minutes and in up-tempo spots. This fits like a glove.
Derrick Rose ($5,300 DK/$5,700 FD) – I would be totally happy to fade this spot, and may well do it in GPP even if ownership is through the roof. We generally do not love going up against Malcolm Brogdon defense, and Rose still didn’t see 30 minutes. I grant you, 27 minutes for the price doesn’t look terrible but the spot isn’t spectacular. Rose went 7-11 from the field which could be a lot to ask for again. Having said all of this, Rose is a player that will be wildly popular and we eat the chalk. As an aside, be VERY careful chasing the Immanuel Quickley. He played all of eight minutes in the first half last game. He was wildly lucky to score the way he did, and the wrong side of variance still is a super low floor.
Honorable Mention – Luka Doncic, Simmons, Kyrie Irving (love in GPP and he’s underpriced as well), potentially Shake Milton if he would start
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($11,000 DK/$10,900 FD) – How can you not want to play him tonight? The Nets are still down to Kyrie and Harden and unlike Kyrie, Harden does everything and isn’t the “primary” scorer. He’s a triple-double threat every night right now and Dallas is 26th in defensive rating. The good news is Dallas has Luka Doncic and should have Kristaps Porzingis, so the game should be close throughout. The 43 point effort last game might leave him as not a priority but I want a piece of this game. Harden may be more of an FD play, but is an awesome play on both sites.
Anthony Edwards ($6,300 DK/$6,000 FD) – The rookie has been a rare presence in the cash article, as rookies tend to be. However, the Wolves team is now down D-Lo and Malik Beasley. This team is basically down to Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns, so I believe Edwards is more trustworthy than normal. I’m more likely to play him on FD than DK but over 216 minutes with those two guys off the floor, Edwards has a 33.4% usage rate and a 1.05 FPPM. That’s with a 47.2% true shooting rate, which honestly is a concern. There’s just too much opportunity against the Wizards defense tonight to pass up.
Seth Curry ($5,400 DK/$4,700 FD) – Curry is an interesting case. For one, folks may just look and chase the game from last time knowing Harris is out. Secondly, we have to point out that Curry doesn’t look great metrics-wise with Harris off the floor. His usage drops by 3% and the FPPM drops by 0.11 FPPM. The sample size is under 100 minutes, so I’m not fully trusting this. Philly needs some perimeter shooting in a major way with Harris out. Embiid can take three’s but Ben Simmons just refuses with six attempts all year. Cleveland is dead last in three-point field goal percentage give up and is one of only two teams over 40%.
Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Bruce Brown
Small Forward
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,500 DK/$6,200 FD) – Prepare yourself for the 65th straight day for Michael Porter chalk, especially on FD. This position might be the worst it’s been all year tonight, as Brandon Ingram is the only other viable option over $6,000 tonight. For MPJ, the Nuggets continue to be short-handed and he’s played at least 30 minutes in four of the past five games. OKC is 11th in pace, which helps and he does have an 0.84 FPPM the past two weeks. With the minutes he’s playing, it’s enough and there’s always a chance he gets super hot from the field as well.
Rui Hachimura ($5,800 FD) – Hachi is PF/C on DK, and we get the added benefit of positional flexibility on that site. FD is obviously different and I’m likely to just lock in Rui and MPJ and move on. Rui isn’t anything special but the game environment is one of the best on paper tonight and the kid doesn’t leave the floor anymore. In four of the past five games, Hachi has played at least 36 minutes. That would be sixth in the league over the course of the full season. Even with Westy and Beal being the whole team, you just can’t get those minutes for this price in a top-eight pace matchup.
Honorable Mention – Ingram, Evan Fournier (FD)
Power Forward
Zion Williamson ($8,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – Over the past four weeks, Zion has started to take over as far as the fantasy leader on the Pelicans. He’s just over a 29% usage and a 1.36 FPPM. The Spurs don’t look like the ideal spot on paper, as they are third in paint points allowed on the year. That’s commendable, but who on the Spurs guards Zion? Aldridge is 7,342 years old. Jakob Poeltl doesn’t have 10% of the athleticism required. After that, it’s hard to see how Zion gets stopped tonight. He was a bulldozer against the Bucks and scored over 50 DK, despite going totally silent for almost the entire third quarter. The Spurs are ranked sixth in pace over the past month, the absolute nuts for a guy like Zion and his 4.3 points in transition a night.
Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,100 DK/$4,400) Vanderbilt is the second T-Wolves player but he won’t be the last. He played 34 minutes last game and put up an excellent 35 fantasy points, even though four steals helped. Washington actually rebounds the ball well at 12th in the league. That doesn’t mean Vanderbilt can’t help on that end and the 0.95 FPPM is eye-catching with the two players off the floor tonight. We love these environments and the position is pretty tough past the high-end.
Honorable Mention – Domantas Sabonis, Julius Randle
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($10,100 DK/$9,700 FD) – Over on DK, there are no fewer than FIVE center-eligible players who are at least $10,000 in salary. Most of the attention could trend towards Joel Embiid, who rocks an obscene 1.80 FPPM and a usage over 40% with Harris off the floor. Sitting here the night before, I’m putting money on Embiid being the chalk and that’s fine, we’ll play Embiid. The Rose/Biid pairing could the start of most cash builds tonight and we’ll see during the day. If Embiid is not the chalk, I’m looking at KAT in a big way. We talked about Edwards without D-Lo and Beasley and KAT looks better. He’s sitting on a 34.7% usage rate and a 1.53 FPPM and gets the Wizards defense, who can’t stop anyone. I’ll let projected ownership make the final call, but both centers are in an elite spot tonight.
DeAndre Jordan ($5,700 DK/$5,400 FD) – We always have to be picky with Jordan but this spot fits exactly what he does. Jordan averages 6.1 paint touches per game and has 12 rebounding chances a night as well. Dallas is 27th in rebounding (hello Harden’s chances at a triple-double) and 25th in paint points allowed. This is the perfect spot to catch DJ on a double-double game. His minutes have not dropped under 25 in the past six games after he missed the Golden State game. With that under his belt, he’s got a solid floor here.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
