Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/23
We’ve got a bigger nine-game slate tonight and one piece of news already looms large. Russell Westbrook may or may not sit out tonight, which is a massive piece of the puzzle. The only other player at the high end of salary that’s questionable is Steph Curry for the Warriors. That of course means the day will bring insanity because it’s a nine-game slate with no early news. Let’s start to lay the baseline for what we’re going to need in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/23 and find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/23 Injury Report
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Cam Reddish (Q)
Cavs – Andre Drummond, Larry Nance (O), Taurean Prince (Q)
Pistons – Delon Wright (O)
Magic – Cole Anthony, Aaron Gordon (O)
Kings – Harrison Barnes (Q)
Nets – Kevin Durant (O), Jeff Green, Tyler Johnson, TLC (Q)
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O)
Warriors – Steph Curry, James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (Q)
Knicks – Mitchell Robinson (O)
Sixers – Seth Curry (Q)
Raptors – Kyle Lowry (Q)
Nuggets – Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/23 Positions
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,400 DK/$10,300 FD) – The Blazers visit the Nuggets in Denver tonight and it’s one of the premier games on the slate. Dame has been a staple of cash games every night and will continue to do so until the Blazers get some folks back in their rotation. Who else on the slate is going to take 30 shots in a game? Dame posted 66 DK points two games ago and shot 10-30. That’s….absolutely nuts and speaks to just how much is on Dame’s shoulders. Denver is 18th in defensive rating and gives up the eighth-highest frequency of three-point shots. This spot is tailor-made for Dame Time. If you wanted to run it back with Jamal Murray, more power to you.
Darius Garland ($6,100 DK/$5,900 FD) – Sometimes in cash, we have to play guys we don’t want to or really like. Garland may well be that player for me tonight since I don’t have any overwhelming reason to chase him normally. However, he’s still reasonably priced and the field has loved him lately. He sits at about a 0.95 FPPM on the season, which isn’t terrible. With the Cavs in rebuild mode, they need to see exactly what they can get out of the back-court duo of Garland and Collin Sexton. It’s one of the reasons Garland is going to play 35+ minutes and against the Hawks, we can play him in cash with little hesitation.
Monte Morris ($5,000 DK/$4,700 FD) – I want to get some style of exposure to the Nuggets so if I can’t afford Murray, maybe I’ll just play Morris. With the Nuggets down so many players, they’re running some smaller lineups and Morris has played 29 and 32 minutes the past couple of games. He can be a little streaky but with the Blazers sitting 28th in defensive rating, 30 minutes in a shot rotation has a very easy path to success.
Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, De’Aaron Fox (mostly reserved for GPP’s but that price is so low)
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,500 DK/$9,800 FD) – Westbrook may or may not play but I’m in either way. If Westy sits, Beal sits around a 40% usage rate and we always talk about the Clippers getting mashed by primary ball handlers. It doesn’t get a lot more primary than Beal who leads the league with a 36.1% usage rate and that’s with Westbrook in. His price is ridiculously low on DK and if Westbrook sits he’s a stone-cold lock. We may not need Beal if Westbrook is in but I love him no matter what. On FD, it’s going to be much harder to sink the salary into Beal since James Harden is likely to be popular. The Nets and Kings just played and Harden posted 72+ DK points. Even with Kyrie active, you’ll probably need Harden on FD.
Terrence Ross ($6,600 DK/$5,400 FD) – On DK, I’m very likely to just play Evan Fournier since he starts and is $200 more. FD has not raised Ross nearly fast enough, as he’s one of the main three scoring threats on the Magic. No, he’s not here because he tweeted about Top Shot either. Ross is behind only Nikola Vucevic and Fournier as far as offensive load goes. I mean, who else is scoring? James Ennis? Khem Birch? The offense flows through that trio and has taken at least 16 shots in seven straight games. Look for that to continue tonight.
Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Paul George, Tyrese Haliburton
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($9,400 DK/ ) – We targeted Kawhi in the last game against the Nest and it paid off nicely with about 55 DK points. He played for almost 40 minutes and when I can get that kind of safety at this price, I’m ready to go. Now, it’s possible that the Wizards get blown out on a back-to-back but if they do Kawhi is likely the driving force. He’s leading the Clippers with a 1.33 FPPM and the Wizards play at the fastest pace in basketball. If he plays 38 minutes or more, we should be looking at 55-65 DK points.
Khris Middleton ($8,400 DK/$7,200 FD) – The DK price is a little rich for me but the FD salary is a very different story. I said in the Discord to pair up Giannis and Middleton on Sunday, as Middleton hadn’t been doing much. I got everything I was hoping for, but the should be more the norm as long as Jrue Holiday is out. Middleton is sitting at a 1.21 FPPM and a usage rate of just under 26%. That means he’s far too cheap on FD, considering the Wolves make a compelling matchup in pace at eighth and defensive rating which is 23rd. Maybe we even get the new coach narrative for the Wolves and they actually play well tonight.
Will Barton ($5,300 DK/$5,200 FD) – I’m looking for reasons to not think that Barton will be chalk on FD if nothing else. He’s barely over $5,000 at a mediocre position in a sparkling game environment. He’s played 26 and 34 minutes the past two games and with Denver being down to four original starters, that should repeat tonight. Now, the reliability is in question. Barton has been flighty all year. However, if he’s 70% or higher on FD it’s not going to matter all that much. In the Nuggets current state, Barton has just a 0.75 FPPM but the 19.2% usage isn’t all that bad.
Honorable Mention – Evan Fournier, Derrick Jones, Shaddiq Bey
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,300 DK/$8,800 FD) – It’s hard not to get excited about Randle tonight, especially on FD. He hasn’t been under $9,000 often and he gets the Warriors interior that we’ve attacked all year basically. The Warriors are polar opposite in pace over the Knicks, which should help Randle and they’re going to struggle to defend him. Randle is only one minute shy of the league lead in minutes per game and the 27.6% usage rate and 1.26 FPPm should sparkle tonight. Golden State is in the bottom 12 in rebounding and paint points allowed this year.
This is also a very rare spot that you could go double Knicks on FD with Nerlens Noel. Since the Mitchel Robinson injury, Noel has played no less than 27 minutes. For all the same reasons we like Randle, Noel makes sense as well. Frankly, Draymond Green will have his hands full with the twin towers around the paint.
Marvin Bagley ($5,900 DK/$6,000 FD) – I’m scared to trust Luke Walton but Bagley is starting to (finally) rack up minutes. Over the past three games, he’s played 24, 35, and 29. The last game was on a back-to-back so it’s not crazy to expect another 30 here. Bagley just put up 30 fantasy points on this Brooklyn frontline in just 21 minutes, and the former Duke Blue Devil seems to be finding his stride. This is the perfect spot with the pace and the fact Brooklyn’s interior is a borderline joke, so I’m still happy to play him at the price. It’s a good time to refresh that Bagley has a 1.04 FPPM and a usage rate over 23% on the season.
Honorable Mention – Jayson Tatum (I’ll play him every day on DK under $9,000)
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DK/$10,500 FD) – I’m going to be very interested to see what the field does with Joker. He’s had two straight very average to poor games and 60 has been about the ceiling. You can certainly argue that he’s a luxury spend, but when the floor is generally about 55 DK, that deserves some love too. Jokic sits at a 1.57 FPPM in the Nuggets scenario tonight and Enes Kanter defense is always something I like to target. He’s not a desperate need, but someone on the radar for sure.
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,600 DK/$9,700 FD) – KAT is coming off a 60+ fantasy point game and is under $10,000. That might not last much longer –
If KAT is going to be the centerpiece, we can expect that usage rate to tick up near or above 30% as long as D-Lo is out. He’s also the type of center that is going to give Brook Lopez fits since KAT can roam the entire floor. With Lopez not being the typical rebounding center, there’s upside in that department as well. KAT is insisting he wants to be in Minnesota and build his legacy. I’m in for one last game under $10,000.
Richaun Holmes ($5,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – I’m undecided if I would use Holmes and Bagley together (I lean no) so maybe this is a spot where the DK price for Holmes makes the most sense and Bagley’s positional requirement on FD is the edge. Regardless, we should like Holmes for all the reasons we liked Bagley. He’s not that far off the FPPM of Bagley and 0.99 and a double-double seems well within reach. Holmes only played 21 minutes last game but averages near 30 on the year.
Honorable Mention – Vuc, Clint Capela, Jarrett Allen
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/23 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
