Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/22
There’s a six-game slate tonight and we have some pretty big names to choose from. There’s not a ton of injury news yet, which usually means the next day is pretty hectic. Additionally, there’s a lot of clashes of style on this slate. Many games feature matchups of teams that are opposite in pace and defensive rating. That should be fun to sift through so let’s get rolling in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/22 to find the path for green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/22 Injury Report
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. (O)
Rockets – Victor Oladipo (Q), Christian Wood (O)
Grizzlies – Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks (O)
Heat – Tyler Herro (Q), Goran Dragic (O)
Thunder – George Hill (O), Al Horford could sit on a back-to-back
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Harry Giles (O)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (Q)
Wizards – Ish Smith (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroeder (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/22 Positions
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($10,100 DK/$9,400 FD) – If I’m on DK, I may just get up to Damian Lillard or Luka Doncic. Those players are appealing, but on FD the price simply isn’t enough at this point. You can pick at Westbrook’s efficiency or whatever else you want. The bottom line is he produces for fantasy, and I don’t care about the Wizards winning or losing. Even with Bradley Beal active, Westy is a threat for a triple-double every single night and the Lakers aren’t the same defense that they normally are. On top of that, the FPPM of 1.40 is actually slightly more than Beal at 1.35. FD doesn’t have the price right this evening.
John Wall ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD) – Wall is the inverse of Westy as he’s more appealing to me on DK than FD, but I’m betting Wall ends up popular. He seemingly is every single slate and Victor Oladipo is still likely out tonight. In this scenario, Wall rocks a 36.1% usage and a 1.25 FPPM. Now we need to add in the warp-speed pace in this game. These teams are the third and fourth teams in pace currently, the one game on the slate that has no peer in that respect. Wall is back to logging big minutes and in cash, the Stars and Scrubs build is not needed as often. We should expect Wall to be popular in that format.
Mike Conley ($6,000 DK/$5,600 FD) – This slot could easily go to Kendrick Nunn if Dragic AND Tyler Herro are out tonight. As we stand, we should expect Conley to get back to his 30-ish minute mark tonight and I’m interested if that’s the case. The price for Conley is too low and we shouldn’t forget his role in the Jazz offense this year. His usage trails only Donovan Mitchell among starters and the 1.12 FPPM is third. When he’s playing 30 minutes or more, he should be $600-$1,000 more depending on the site.
Honorable Mention – Ja Morant, Chris Paul
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($8,700 DK/$8,300 FD) – The FD price is really solid for a player that seems like he’s truly breaking out. The funny thing is his numbers aren’t really different, but he just looks different when you watch him. Charolette represents a pace upgrade since they are 15th and the Jazz are 23rd, which helps. There’s also no guard on the Hornets that will really slow down Mitchell tonight either. His 32% is awesome for his price range and the Hornets allow the third-highest frequency from deep this year. That sets up perfectly for the Jazz as a whole and Mitchell especially, shooting a career-high 38.9% from beyond the arc.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,400 DK/$7,500 FD) – I won’t get there on DK but the FD price is under $8,000 for the first time in recent memory and that’s almost all we need. Provided SGA is not on a minutes limit or anything, he’s in a prime spot here. I’m not overly thrilled with the pace matchup since the Thunder are top 10 and the Heat are bottom 10 but the amount SGA has to do overwhelms the fears. Taking George Hill off the floor gives SGA a 29% usage and over a 1.20 FPPM. You don’t get that for $7,500 very often.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,900 DK/$3,700) – A prime punt on DK and maybe even FD, KCP is going to log a TON of minutes against the Wizards. You know, the number one team in pace and 26th in defensive rating. The crafty vet is shooting 42% from deep this year and the Wizards give up the sixth-highest field goal percentage in the league. In the three games that AD has missed, KCP has played 35, 29, and 31 minutes. That’ll play against Washington every time.
Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal Rule, Zach LaVine, Terry Rozier
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,400 DK/$10,400 FD) – I didn’t completely love Bron last game and it paid off, as I mostly faded his 45 DK points. Lest anyone think there’s no ceiling here, we’re six games removed from a three-game stretch where Bron hit at least 60 DK. If there’s a time to chase the celling, it is against the Wizards. He’s not going to shoot 7-21 again and on DK he fell one board and dime short of bonuses. With AD and Dennis Schroeder out of the lineup, Bron has a 34.4% usage and 1.46 FPPM. I’m not letting recent results worry me for a split second. It doesn’t hurt LeBron that the rest of SF is really tough outside of Jimmy Butler.
David Nwaba ($4,600 DK/$5,300 FD) – My goodness do I not like this position. I’m looking at Nwaba strictly due to the game environment and the fact he’s getting 24-28 minutes even with Eric Gordon in. Nwaba grinds out a 0.88 FPPM when Dipo is off the floor and there’s always the chance that Boogie Cousins sits. I mostly want to see how the day develops because we can also go elsewhere like Derrick Jones from the Blazers. I’m wary of that play though. Yes, he’s playing 30-32 minutes every night which is great. The past two games have been elite matchups, whereas the Suns are better defensively and play slow. On FD, it could wind up being Bron or Butler and then just filling the second slot with whoever fits in the lineup.
Honorable Mention – Butler, Bojan Bogdanovic (FD only), Mikal Bridges
Power Forward
Bam Adebayo ($8,800 DK/$8,900 FD) – I always hate to use the term “lock” the night before but on FD it sure seems hard to not want to lock in Bam at PF and move on. We just witnessed Jarrett Allen lay waste to the OKC interior, and now they have to stop Bam? That’s not likely to happen, especially if Horford sits on top of it. Bam is a steady Eddie player, which is what we love in cash. You can argue the ceiling isn’t likely to be there and I actually agree at this salary. I also don’t totally care for cash. Only Jimmy Buckets has a higher FPPM than Adebayo’s 1.25 and the 25.25% usage rate is crazy for a big man that’s not the center of his offense.
Kyle Kuzma ($5,700 FD) – I will continue to fade entirely on DK at the absurd salary, but FD makes a lot more sense. Just like KCP, the spot is totally elite and Kuzma is probably (?) the most reliable scorer behind LeBron left on the team. He took 21 shots last game and much like LeBron, I doubt he’s shooting 8-21 again tonight. Kuzma has just a 0.89 FPPM but the true shooting rate of 50.3% seems far out of place. On a site that I need two, I have no issue using Kuzma as a power forward tonight.
Jae Crowder ($5,000 DK/$4,600 FD) – This is mostly just a placeholder for Isaiah Roby if we get the opening. If Horford plays though we need a backup and hello Crowder. I’m not too worried about the dud last game because the Suns blew out the short-handed Grizzlies. Crowder only played 20 minutes but has been more along the lines of 28-30 on most nights. Portland is in the bottom 10 in three-point frequency allowed and Crowder can thrive in pace up spots, which Portland represents.
Honorable Mention – Brandon Clarke, Kristaps Porzingis (FD)
Center
Rudy Gobert ($7,400 DK/$8,300 FD) – It’s rare I look at Gobert for cash, but this is the spot. The Hornets have no way to stop him in the paint, as they are 26th in paint points allowed. That’s all Gobert does as far as scoring goes and he is the only player that averages over 11 paint points per game. Gobert also leads in rebounding chances and there’s a stealth stat that is interesting as well. Charolette is seventh in drives per game as a team, giving Gobert block upside on top of everything else.
Enes Kanter ($7,000 DK/$6,900 FD) – Kanter should have some safety in his minutes tonight since he’ll need to match Deandre Ayton for the Suns. Phoenix is average in paint points allowed and 17th in rebounding, so this spot isn’t too shabby for Kanter on paper. The usage is never going to be much of anything with a player like Dame alongside, but the 1.11 FPPM is a nice mark. Ayton is certainly not a defender that we fear so Kanter is on my radar.
Note – In cash, I refuse to touch DeMarcus Cousins. He’s on his way out and Houston can decide to sit him literally at any point. We don’t need him in cash tonight, there’s too much risk.
Honorable Mention – JoVal (love this spot), Wendell Carter
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