Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20
This slate is smaller than yesterday and looks like an awful lot of fun, including a Mjölnr-sized Late Night Hammer, a.k.a. marteau de fin de nuit. Ghost, if that’s the wrong phrase in French you can blame Google. Anyways, this is the kind of slate we love as it’s the perfect size to take a stand without getting overwhelmed. Let’s break it all down and lay our foundation for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 to find those green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 Injury Report
Warriors – James Wiseman (O)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (D)
Heat – Goran Dragic (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroeder (O)
Kings – Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes (Q)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)
Grizzlies – Dillon Brooks (Q)
Wizards – Ish Smith (O)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 Positions
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,600 DK/$9,900 FD) – I’m not sure if I can possibly fade Dame Time tonight, in any format. He called Russell Westbrook his “arch-nemesis” on the court, and that’s just gravy. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and ranks 26th in defensive rating. Now, StatMuse tells us that Dame was not spectacular on February 2nd in this very spot. He scored 32 real points but only hit 49 DK. What that doesn’t tell you is Dame sat the next game two days later with an injury. Now fully healthy, Lillard sports a 33.4% usage rate and a 1.45 FPPM. I’m virtually all in for this spot.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,000 DK/$8,100 FD) – It’s to be determined if I use Fox and Dame in my cash builds but I will absolutely have exposure to him tonight. A couple of average games have his price below what it should be and you can argue this game environment is better than Washington’s. Sacramento is dead last in defensive rating, Chicago is 20th and both teams are in the top 11 in pace. Fox isn’t bothered if Harrison Barnes plays or not, and this pace-up spot for him is so much in his wheelhouse. We know he has massive upside past his 1.18 FPPM since his usage is a team-leading 27.8%.
Note – The value options here are junk, as of this writing. That can of course change quickly but this could be a spend-up position tonight.
Honorable Mention – Westy, LaMelo Ball (FD), Kendrick Nunn (FD)
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine ($9,200 DK/$9,500 FD) – I won’t pretend that the Bradley Beal Rule is in effect tonight. He’s under $10,00 on both sites, that’s the green light for any format and we love his game environment an awful lot. Maybe this is blasphemy, but I may just gravitate to the cheaper player against a more fantasy-friendly opponent since LaVine gets the Kings. The Bulls star has a 30.8% usage and a 1.29 FPPM. That’s slightly lower than Beal but certainly, nothing to scoff at. I’ll war between these two all day, but I have a feeling the field flocks to LaVine at around a 5-1 ratio for ownership.
Tyler Herro ($6,300 DK/$6,300 FD) – I’m not likely to go here for DK, but FD could be different. Herro is getting plenty of run with the absence of Dragic, averaging over 34 minutes on the year. Herro isn’t just a scorer either this year, with a 24.6% usage rate. The 18% assist rate isn’t too shabby either and the Lakers defense is not nearly as intimidating without AD in the lineup. I’m not overjoyed about Herro but this is a tough spot on FD. Frankly, both guard spots aren’t the most exciting after the high-end.
Gary Trent ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – I don’t want to dwell on Trent. In honesty, I feel like I write him up every single slate anymore because he’s always mid-$5,000 on FD, and he works perfectly as a complement to a different player. Let’s face it, this is an elite spot for Trent too. The pace is crazy, the defense should be non-existent and the Wiz allow the seventh-highest FG% from three-point land. Trent is quietly in the top 25 in three-point attempts per contest this season.
Honorable Mention – Devin Booker would be near a lock for a spot if Chris Paul happened to sit.
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($8,900 DK/$9,200 FD) – Butler has a little red “2nd” in the matchup column, but I’m not concerned about that tonight. For one, LeBron James is going to have to do so much on the offensive end that I don’t think he’s playing all-world defense in this one. I mean, who else is scoring for LA past Kyle Kuzma? KCP? Wes Matthews? Yikes. Butler will have an easier time for that reason and the aforementioned no AD. Buckets has been a walking triple-double or real close to it lately as well. We can not be thrilled with the number of real points but the bonuses on DK help a lot. Regardless, the 1.34 FPPM is plenty at this salary and for the matchup.
Kelly Oubre ($6,800 DK/$6,600 FD) – I’m really torn here but I’m including Oubre because I’m guessing he’s chalky to some extent on FD. There was a part of me that thought he could be a good fit on the Warriors, but he really started about as poorly as he could have. In fairness, Oubre has started o creep up to about a full 1.00 FPPM over the past couple of weeks and has hit at least 34 FD in five of the last seven. He might be finding the groove and if there’s chalkiness on FD, we can eat it.
Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,400 DK/$4,400 FD) – It’s fairly gross writing up Jones for cash games. This is the kind of thing that can happen with a five-game slate. I have four Blazers, but I do not think you should play all four. You still need some balance. Normally, players like DJJ don’t make the cut with a 12.6% usage and a 0.74 FPPM but he’s cheap against the Wizards and will likely play 30-32 minutes. If playing him gets you a LaVine or Fox, I can certainly live with it.
Honorable Mention – LeBron, Rui Hachimura
Power Forward
Draymond Green ($6,600 DK/$7,600 FD) – I’m not over the moon with the FD price, although the three points for steals and blocks do help a lot. Green should hopefully be in the lineup on a back-to-back and play his normal 30+ minutes for GS. They still have no center, which works for us tonight. Charlotte is an interior we target all the time. True, Dray is far from a traditional center but the Hornets are bottom-five in paint points allowed. Someone like Green can exploit that and still be a primary playmaker in the Warrior’s offense like always.
Marvin Bagley ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – I would be quite surprised if Bagley isn’t one of the chalkiest plays on the slate in this spot. He’s starting to turn the corner with his production, even though he still can’t get a ton of minutes. Luke Walton is why we can’t have nice things. Anyways, Bagley actually has a usage rate over 25% on the season. That helps explain why he can be fantasy relevant in just 24 minutes. He’s an athletic big man who has over five paint touches per game and Chicago is 22nd in paint points. I’m not going to be surprised to see another double-double or close to it.
Jae Crowder ($5,200 DK/$4,800 FD) – Starting or not for the Suns, Crowder is getting reliable minutes lately. Since he was banged up and missed a couple of games, he’s logged at least 26 minutes in five straight and 28 or higher in three of the five. Memphis is 13th in pace, in contrast to the Suns sitting at 29th. IF (big if) CP3 would sit, that makes the Suns go faster and this one can really shoot out. Not only has the veteran big man been a nice addition for the Suns, but he can also hit some threes at 36.4%. Memphis is giving up the fourth-highest FG% in the league.
Honorable Mention – Bam Adebayo, Brandon Clarke
Center
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200 DK/$7,700 FD) – My Name Is Jonas is the highest salaried center on FD, and second on DK. It’s that kind of slate for center, which likely leads the field to spend up at guard. On DK, I can see a lot of Bagley at C or possibly one we haven’t discussed yet. That doesn’t mean JoVal should get overlooked. Playing against Deandre Ayton defense shouldn’t scare anyone, and JoVal is going to go toe to toe with the second-year big man. I wish he played a couple more minutes per game, but he’s also sixth in paint touches per game. Phoenix is 15th in paint points allowed and 21st in paint rebounds. Memphis needs JoVal to match Ayton as much as possible tonight.
Enes Kanter ($6,900 DK/$6,200 FD) – If the big man can’t get it done here, I’m not sure when else we could trust him to do it. Washington can’t decide on who’s playing center on any given night so Kanter has the advantage there. He also gets to feast on a team that is 25th in paint points allowed and 26th in paint rebounds. Kanter gets over seven paint touches per game to go with his 1.10 FPPM and the only fear is he can’t keep up the pace or the game goes small. That’s a possibility, so let’s see what ownership looks like closer to lock.
Cody Zeller ($6,400 DK/$5,300 FD) – We just watched Nikola Vucevic rip Golden State for over 70 DK points. Now I’m certainly not comparing these two players but it’s just to highlight the issues Golden State has right now. They are getting smacked around by any big man of slight repute, and Zeller qualifies. He’s playing about 25 minutes per game and that could be enough to double-double here with his 1.08 FPPM this year.
Honorable Mention – Wendell Carter
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
