Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/2
It was quite a frustrating night as we had some good lineups cooking before the Nuggets game was postponed with no pivots left. Sadly, there’s just not much we can do in that spot. Everything can be done right and it’s still just bad luck. Hopefully we can avoid that tonight. Two of the most appealing games are earlier tonight. For now, we’re leaving out the Pistons and Jazz game. Since Detroit is the team that had Covid issues, I’d be surprised if that game played. Let’s figure out what other paths are in front of us in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/2 and see who we need to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/2 Injury Report
Raptors – OG Anunoby (O), Norman Powell (Q)
Magic – Aaron Gordon (O), Michael Carter-Williams (O)
Clippers – Nic Batum (Q), Patrick Beverly (O)
Grizzlies – Jonas Valanciunas (O)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Derrick Jones Jr (O)
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O)
Warriors – James Wiseman (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/2 Positions
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($9,100 DK/$10,000 FD) – There’s a big narrative at play as Damian Lillard and Westy don’t particularly care for each other on the court. These things matter a little more in hoops than any other sport. Past that, DK didn’t move Westy’s salary nearly enough after a massive 70+ game last time out. With having his full minutes back, he’s sitting at a 31.3% usage rate and a 1.41 FPPM. That’s massive at this price point, especially against the Blazers who have the third-worst defensive rating in basketball. The FPPM for Russ comes with a 48.5% true shooting rate as well. He’s locked in for me on DK, and still very appealing on FD.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD) – The Pacers square off against the Grizzlies who are on a back to back. This is gong to help Brogdon, as is the Grizzlies being in the top 12 in pace. Ja Morant is not a great on ball defender (to be kind) and Brogdon is a main component of the Pacers offense and plays a boatload of minutes. Brogdon trails only James Harden in minutes per game so far. He’s also 13th in drives per game, which Morant is going to directly be on the opposite end a few times. Memphis will have their hands full with this talented guard, who sports a 28.3% usage rate and a 1.15 FPPM.
Reggie Jackson ($5,100 DK/$5,500 FD) – Playing 25-28 minutes against the Nets is always going to catch my eye. Jackson has taken the place of Patrick Beverly, and has been more productive with a 16% usage and a 1.00 FPPM. Now he gets Brooklyn, who runs at the fourth-fastest pace in basketball. That’s a massive step up for the 29th ranked Clippers. Jackson also has a 22.5% assist rate in this scenario, behind only Kawhi Leonard. It’s a great spot for some cheap exposure if we want to play studs from other games.
Honorable Mention – Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, Cole Anthony
Shooting Guard
Paul George ($8,900 DK/$8,400 FD) – I’ll stay right in the Nets game and take an early stab the PG is going to be very popular tonight on FD. His price is super fair, and he’s getting that wonderful Nets matchup. He and Kawhi Leonard are basically neck and neck with a 28% usage rate and about a 1.24 (Kawhi is at 1.32) FPPM. George is $1,200 cheaper and the potential of Kevin Durant and Kawhi squaring off for most of the night could tip the scales to George. With the pace upgrade and the fact the Nets are routinely giving up 120+ anymore, we need to have some exposure on a five game slate. Brooklyn is dead last in points surrendered per game since the James Harden deal.
We’re going to need some help at this position tonight. Bradley Beal and James Harden are very pricey, as is Fred VanVleet. Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson may not play. Norman Powell is doubtful Right now, the best second option is Gary Trent again. He gets Washington and that pace of that game should be incredible. If Powell is out, maybe we can turn to Yuta Watanabe again. As of now, PG and Trent sure seem like they’ll be the stone chalk on FD.
Small Forward
Jaylen Brown ($7,800 DK/$8,700 FD) – With Marcus Smart out, I’m not sure we see a backup step into a big role. The Celtics have Kemba Walker, Brown and Jayson Tatum all healthy. To wit, both Brown and Tatum are over a 32% usage rate with Smart off the court and that’s almost 2% more for Brown. It’s a big pace up spot for Brown since Golden State is fourth in pace and the Celtics sit 17th. The Warriors are also 23rd in points allowed and Brown should get the easier defensive matchup than Tatum.
Don’t get me wrong, I won’t tell you don’t play Tatum. He’s at a 1.51 FPPM and he’s only $8,600 on DK. That should flat out never happen. He’s back to full minutes and scored 30 real points against the Lakers. This duo is extremely appealing, but slotting them around the other stars is difficult on this slate. I tend to think others will take priority but still…players with a 32% usage have to be on the radar.
Evan Fournier ($6,300 DK/$6,400 FD) – I don’t love the price on either site and Fournier is SG only on DK. I might be forced into playing him on FD. The Magic will be down Aaron Gordon and without him and Markelle Fultz on the floor, Fournier has a 26.7% usage and (shockingly) a team-leading 33.3% assist rate. Toronto is also fourth in frequency of three pointers allowed, and Fournier is shooting 35.5% from beyond he arc. I don’t think he shoots 2-12 like he did last game again.
Rui Hachimura ($5,300 DK/$4,700 FD) – I’m really only looking at Hach on FD, where I’m going to need to roster two and find some savings. He’s also just PF on DK, so there’s other priorities. After a significant layoff, Rui was on the floor for 28 minutes last game. Yes, I know he didn’t do much and he’s had great matchups he past couple. This is another one as the Blazers don’t defend anyone. On the season, Rui has a 0.84 FPPM and if he gets back to that, we’ll be perfectly fine at $4,700.
Honorable Mention – Kawhi, Pascal Siakam, Kyle Anderson
Power Forward
We talked about Tatum in the Brown analysis and he is the CLEAR spend up on FD, even ahead of Damontas Sabonis for me. After those two, the position drops all the way down to Serge Ibaka at $6,400. Instead of beating the horse again with Tatum, let’s talk about the complimentary pieces/punting at the position if that’s how you choose to do it.
Mo Wagner ($3,800 DK/$4,800 FD) – He’s only a C on DK, but we can play two and he’s sticking out as a solid salary saver on both sites. Look, Robin Lopez just isn’t that great. Wagner might not be either, but he’s far younger and at least has some sort of potential. The pace in this game suits his game a little more than Lopez as well. Wagner can shoot a little bit, sitting over 50% in his limited career. He played 21 minutes last game, four more than Lopez which is a great sign moving forward. The Blazers lack of defense is well-documented.
Daniel Theis ($5,000 DK/$4,500 FD) – If you decide to play other stars and leave Brown and Tatum (or one of them) on the side, consider Theis as a cheap way to get exposure here. Golden State has struggled with big men all year and are without Wiseman on top of things. They are bottom five in rebounding on the year, leaving the avenue open for Theis to hit the glass hard. The Warriors are also 23rd in paint points allowed, and Theis has double-double upside.
Honorable Mention – Sabonis, Serge Ibaka, Xavier Tillman
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($8,200 DK/$8,800 FD) – I’m not sure I can remember the last time I’ve seen Vuc be this low in salary on DK. In my eyes, it’s a tough cal between he and Tatum. As in, very difficult call. Vucevic sees a huge increase in usage rate without Aaron Gordon, all the way up to 32.6%. He just hit Toronto for 45 DK points and only shot 5-18 with 15 real points. That’s almost eight below his average which clears 50 easily. I think in cash games that Vuc will be much higher-owned than Tatum, so he’s likely my choice but I want share of both tonight.
Enes Kanter ($6,900 DK/$7,000 FD) – If you don’t want to spend all the way up, Kanter has to be the next man in line. He only played 25 minutes last night and now gets the Wizards matchup that he should dominate in the paint. They sit 28th in points allowed in the paint and are 24th in rebounding. Kanter has 6.9 paint touches per game and that was with being a backup for a big chunk of the season. It’s not super heard to envision a 15/15 game here for the big man, even if he can’t defend a lick.
I can’t sign off on him in cash, but Ivaca Zubac is very interesting in GPP tonight. We always attack Brooklyn with centers and he’ll get second-team run which could make life even easier.
*Update* After checking in on ownerships and other factors, we need to add Gary Clark, Nassir Little and Kevan Looney to the cash pool (especially on DK). All three players are under $3,500 and all three will likely starts in decent to great spots. We could potentially play all three in cash on DK and spend under $10,000 and jam in a whole bunch of studs around them.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
