Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19
This is a bit of an atypical slate tonight. We have nine games, but only four players in the five digits as far as salary. That means we could be sitting in the mid-range a bit more than normal, but there are some great plays on the slate as a whole. Let’s lay the foundation to our cash game before the inevitable havoc in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19 Injury Report
Warriors – Draymond Green (Q), James Wiseman (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony (O), James Ennis, Evan Fournier (Q)
Nuggets – Will Barton, JaMychal Green (Q), Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)
Cavaliers – May have just 8-9 players
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O)
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O), Jaylen Brown (Q)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)
Sixers – Ben Simmons, Shake Milton (Q)
Pistons – Blake Griffin (O)
Grizzlies – Dillons Brooks, De’Anthony Melton (Q)
Thunder – George Hill (O)
Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O) – Keep an eye on Giannis on a back-to-back. They are on a six-game losing streak so he probably plays but it’s in the back of my mind. Khris Middleton would be an absolute must in cash if Giannis would be out.
Pelicans – Steven Adams (D)
Raptors – Kyle Lowry (Q), I’d bet he’s out
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)
Jazz – Mike Conley (Q)
Clippers – Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Nic Batum, Luke Kennard (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19 Positions
Point Guard
Chris Paul ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – My guy Brian has been on this train for a while now and it’s attacking New Orleans with point guards. The Point God is just the next man in line, and it’s easy to see why we would like him. The Pelicans are a big pace-up spot for CP3 and the Suns, not to mention he can pick on Lonzo Ball defense. Paul does trail Devin Booker in usage but he still rocks a 23.6% rate and a 1.17 FPPM, best on the team. The price tag is appealing on both sites and he’s a good pivot from the next player if Denver gets players back in action tonight.
Jamal Murray ($8,000 DK/$7500 FD) – Denver is a team in flux, so Murray could be too pricey. However, if they are still down multiple starters, I’m in. Cleveland will struggle to defend him with Collin Sexton, and Murray looked a whole lot like Bubble Murray last game out. Taking the three starters off the court leaves Murray a 28% usage rate and a 1.19 FPPM, which is excellent. In the past two games he’s hit 45 DK (with nine turnovers) and 61 DK. For the time being, Michael Porter is a very questionable player so it’s up to Murray and Nikola Jokic to carry this team.
Theo Maledon ($4,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – We’ll probably get a different value that we like better, but this is a numbers play. Maledon worked back up to 33 minutes last time out and with Hill still out, the Thunder need him to run the point. He’s not going to wow us with a 16.5% usage and a 0.75 FPPM, but the salary is what gets him on the radar. Getting Milwaukee on a back-to-back and playing at a top-eight pace doesn’t hurt him either. Darius Garland could come in as Uber-chalk, so let’s keep an eye on that in this price range.
Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Trae Young
Shooting Guard
Fred VanVleet ($7,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – I’m preparing for Kyle Lowry to be out tonight, and if he is FVV is going to be a very appealing target. He played 40 minutes last night and is the Energizer Bunny, logging major minutes every night. Not only does Minnesota play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league, but they also allow the 10th highest field goal percentage from deep. That’s right up VanVleet’s alley with the fifth-most attempts per game this year. On top of that, FVV has the highest usage on the team at 27.5% when Lowry is off the floor. On FD, you could go double Raptor SG with Norman Powell as well and I wouldn’t be mad. There’s a solid chance I’m pairing one of these guys with a certain spicy Toronto forward if Lowry were to miss.
Collin Sexton ($7,300 DK/$6,900 FD) – I’m probably going to get my Cleveland exposure elsewhere on DK, but FD might be different. Sexton is in a great spot since Gary Harris is already out. The rest of the guards aren’t defenders to worry about and Sexton is going to be called upon to fully carry this offense. He and Garland are almost identical in usage at about 27% and FPPM at 0.97. Right now, I’d favor Garland and another super cheap player from Cleveland but let’s see what ownership brings us.
The rest of the SG position is very cloudy right now. Both Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles are prime targets if Mike Conley is out, but he’s questionable. For the Grizzlies, Dillon Brooks is questionable and that could open up plenty of usage to Grayson Allen. Lastly, Seth Curry was wildly popular last slate with Ben Simmons out. If he is again, Curry will almost surely be chalk but again – we don’t know yet. We’ll keep everything updated in Discord throughout the day.
Small Forward
Pascal Siakam ($7,700 DK/$8,700 FD) – He’s only a PF on DK, but regardless of the position I’m looking at Spicy P tonight. He’s coming off two straight games of putting it on the Bucks, who have a much better interior defense than the Wolves. With no Lowry, Siakam is also up to a 1.11 FPPM. Minnesota is 25th in rebounding and 14th in paint points allowed. With an up-tempo game on tap, I expect Siakam to have a field day and will have some Raptors exposure here. They aren’t the same player and he had overtime, but Domantas Sabonis just hung an 80 spot on this team. 50 for Siakam is not out of the question at all.
Shaddiq Bey ($5,600 DK/$5,800 FD) – Bey’s game log from last time won’t catch your eye at just 27 DK. However, he took just seven shots total and hit just one three-pointer. When a rookie player is grinding out that style of outcome in about 32 minutes, I’m still interested. Memphis is just outside the top 12 in pace and still plays a good deal faster than Detroit at 28th. They also allow a 39% mark from deep, fourth-worst in the league. That’s what we want to see when Bey is 41.3% from beyond the arc at this price.
Cedi Osman ($4,800 DK/$4,200 FD) – With Cleveland being in very tough shape tonight, I’m heading right back to Cedi in this spot. He logged 35 minutes last game and actually would up hitting a double-double. I don’t expect that part again, but the minutes will be locked in. Denver is playing fast and their defense is suffering right now since they’re thin as well. With the players missing for the Cavs, Cedi sits with a 20.9% usage and a 0.89 despite a 47.7% true shooting rate. That’s all we need.
Honorable Mention – Malik Beasley, OG Anunoby (mostly FD), Micheal Porter Jr (FD)
Power Forward
Zion Williamson ($8,400 DK/$8,700 FD) – You know that GIF we put in Discord with the dog in the rocket ship that says “to the moon”? Welcome to the Zion show. He started this season very slow, to the point where I barely looked at him on a nightly basis. Over the past two weeks, Zion has started to rev it up with a 28.9% usage and a 1.38 FPPM, both to lead the team. He’s finding the groove and punishing teams in the paint with the ninth-most points. Phoenix is average in that metric, but I also don’t think Deandre Ayton has much for Zion down low. When a player as talented as Zion is cooking like this, I’m all the way in. I will say if Jaylen Brown is out, Jayson Tatum is going to rival Zion for this spot. I think we’ll have to make the pivot to Tatum based on projected ownership but man do I like Zion tonight.
JaMychal Green ($5,300 DK/$4,200 FD) – The price is exceptionally low on FD and we may have no choice but to look here. We know that Paul Millsap is out, so Green should start. He should also push for 30 minutes and at this salary, that’s enough. Now we take those three starters off the floor and Green has a 0.68 FPPM but that’s over 75 minutes. Cleveland is 22nd in rebounding and I have a tough time passing up $4,200 on a site that I have to take two players at this position. It’s really, really gross at this spot past the very obvious plays. I may even look towards Jae Crowder, but PF seems like a strong chance for Tatum or Zion and a punt Green.
Honorable Mention – Tatum, Tobias Harris (especially if Simmons is out), Draymond Green (probably DK only)
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$10,600 FD) – If people don’t want to go back to Joker, that’s on them. Sure, he was a slight disappointment last game against the Wizards. The floor was still 60 DK and the ceiling is higher. Joker poured in 33 real points and in the past two games with Denver short, he’s taken 44 combined shots and played 37 and 38 minutes. When I get a player who’s averaging a 1.77 FPPM down three starters and playing three quarters, I’m not thinking twice. You shouldn’t either and with the general lack of true studs, Joker could wind up being the man we anchor cash lineups around.
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,200 DK/$9,300 FD) – Don’t want to spend up on Jokic? I can understand so can I offer you a very underpriced KAT? Ghost and I had said the past couple of slates we wanted KAT at this price before he went nuts, and it happened. My issue was I was all in on Joker, so I missed the 50+ DK KAT game. That won’t be the case tonight. He was back to playing his 35+ minutes and he should not be this cheap on either site. Towns is rocking a 1.28 FPPM with Russell off, and that’s going to be the case for a while. Toronto doesn’t have the right mix to defend KAT and I will have exposure tonight.
Willy Hernangomez ($3,900 DK/$4,400 FD) – There’s plenty of good center plays tonight but for me, it’s either high or low (or both on DK). Steven Adams is doubtful, so Hernangomez is going to get some run tonight. We should bank on around 25-ish minutes and he averages a 1.07 FPPM on the year without Adams on the floor. Jaxson Hayes should get some minutes, but we should expect Hernangomez to get the bulk. He’s played at least 17 in five of the past six. Additionally, all of the 29 minutes last game came after Steven Adams left in the first quarter.
Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Clint Capela, JoVal
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
