Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17
As of now, we have 10 games on the slate which means a lot of avenues to consider. There are quite a few back-to-back sets and we’ll have our normal runs of injuries and the like before lock. This is the NBA life and I’m sure the landscape will change in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 but let’s lay the foundation!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 Injury Report
Knicks – Mitchell Robinson (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony (O), James Ennis, Evan Fournier (Q)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic (O)
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O)
Rockets – Christian Wood (O), Victor Oladipo, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon (Q)
Sixers – Shake Milton (O)
Pacers – Doug McDermott (Q)
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)
Nuggets – Could be down to 8-9 players again
Wizards – Ish Smith (O)
Pistons – Blake Griffin (O)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Rodney Hood, Harry Giles (O)
Thunder – SGA, George Hill (O)
Heat – Goran Dragic (Q)
Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)
Jazz – Mike Conley (Q)
Clippers – Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Nic Batum (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 Positions
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($10,000 DK/$9,200 FD) The DK price doesn’t interest me that much, but the FD price certainly does. Catching a short-handed Denver team on a back-to-back is something Westy can take advantage of and he’s a triple-double threat still every night. Even with Bradley Beal as the main focal point of the offense, Westbrook can still be massively useful for fantasy. For someone that has a 47.4% true shooting rate on the season, the 1.38 FPPM is incredible and the 31.1% usage rate props him up every night. I don’t think defensive acumen will be on display in this game. If Westy is very low in ownership projections, we can probably just pay $300 for Damian Lillard on FD.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,700 DK/$8,000 FD) – Ghost made a fantastic call the last game with Brogdon being a pivot to the John Wall chalk. Brogdon basically matched Wall’s production and I’m back for mooooorrreee tonight. Minnesota played last night and plays no defense while running at a fast pace. It’s a big jump for the Pacers since the Wolves are top-five in pace and Brogdon is at home there. He can score, he can dish and he has almost a 28% usage without Victor Oladipo.
Jamal Murray ($7,100 DK/$6,500 FD) – It’s mostly a rinse and repeat spot. Denver looks to be short-handed again and only seven players got more than 10 minutes last night. Murray put up 40+ fantasy points on both sites with nine turnovers. He only took 16 shots but he’s going to be relied on heavily again. It’s a much better matchup than last night with Washington number one in pace and 25th in defensive rating. Also, don’t forget Facundo Campazzo. If Monte Morris remains out, Campazzo is likely to be 90% owned in cash. Take the free square and move on.
Michael Carter-Williams ($4,700 DK/$4,400 FD) – I would only look this direction if the Magic are still down to 8-10 players but they still don’t have a point guard. They signed Chasson Randle because MCW can’t play the whole game. In his two games back, he’s played 27 and 29 minutes and the usage has been massive. He’s walked into a 30.9% usage and a 1.10 FPPM, even with a 48.4% true shooting rate. You don’t pass up those numbers at this salary.
Honorable Mention – Dame, Monte Morris (if active)
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,800 DK/$9,800) – We have a Bradley Beal Rule around here – if he’s under $10,000, he’s cash viable on every single slate. I mean, this man leads the league in usage and real points. He’s under $10,000 and he really shouldn’t be. I like Beal for all the reasons I talked about in Westbrook’s blurb and the 1.41 FPPM is excellent for Beal. Also, he can show off for his next team (shut up, I want him in Denver. I don’t crush your dreams). I invoke the Bradley Beal Rule.
Anthony Edwards ($6,000 DK/$6,000 FD) – D-Lo is out for the next few weeks and I’m at the point where I “trust” Edwards in cash. That’s in quotes because he’s still a rookie and could have some issues here and there. He’s hit at least 30 fantasy points in five of the last six games and just went for 28 real points last night, which is a career-high to this point. Edwards is flirting with a 28% usage with no D-Lo, and a 0.98 FPPM. Since he’s playing 32-34 minutes per game, the price won’t kill you even if he just nets 30 fantasy tonight. I believe this is more than just chasing a big game, as the rookie is flashing why he was the number one pick.
Kevin Huerter ($5,900 DK/$5,300) – I really dislike this position tonight and may wind up using Huerter on FD. On DK, I may as well just play Edwards on DK at their salaries but Campazzo is a big likelihood if he’s an option. Anyways, Huerter is back to playing about 35 minutes per night and that’s mostly all we need. Now, Huerter does have a 0.85 FPPM when the players are off for the Hawks tonight. It’s not like he’s P.J. Tucker out there. There’s still nothing special in this play other than FD.
Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson (if Conley is out), Terrence Ross (pending Magic depth)
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($8,800 DK/$8,900 FD) – Jimmy Buckets is a man on a mission right now as he’s trying to pull the Heat back up the East standings. Miami suffered a tough loss last time out and need wins, but it wasn’t on Butler they didn’t win last game. He had a triple-double again for 65 DK points. Against an undersized Warriors team that loves to push the pace, Butler may well triple-double again. This is a wheelhouse spot for Butler and his 26.9% usage rate with Dragic off the floor. He might be a luxury in cash, but I adore this spot for him.
Shaddiq Bey ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – Normally, I’d preach a little bit of caution with Bey. Sure, Blake Griffin is done with the Pistons until he gets released or traded. That opens up a boatload of minutes for the rookie, playing 27 and 38 the past two games. This is a perfect spot to go after him even at a very high salary. Detroit sits 27th in pace but the Bulls are third in pace and 21st in defensive rating. With Blake off the floor, Bey has a 0.80 FPPM but he can get hot from deep in a hurry.
On FD, the choice comes down to going back to Michael Porter Jr. or Joe Ingles in my eyes. I honestly lean Ingles. Look, Porter could well go bananas against the Wizards. He has a plethora of talent and has since Day One. My fear is even with the Nuggets down to 10 players and down three starters, MPJ played just 24 minutes last night. He’s played almost 55 minutes the past two games and has a total of eight real points. At least with Ingles, he’s going to get court time. He’s sitting at about a 1.00 FPPM. The Clippers will be focused on stopping Donovan Mitchell, so Ingles has the safer floor in my eyes. If he’s hitting his three’s Ingles could clear MPJ easily.
Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard (if active), Brandon Ingram
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,700 DK/$9,700 FD) – I’d be happy to play Brogdon and the Pacers big man together. They carry the offense since they’re both about a 28% usage rate and Sabonis leads in FPPM at 1.28. Karl Anthony-Towns is an extremely talented player but he cannot/will not play defense. Sabonis should be able to do whatever he likes around the basket and he ranks sixth in field goal attempts per game in the paint. The price is back up and it might take a bit of the ceiling out, but I certainly still feel very comfortable with the floor. I could also see the argument to save a little bit of salary on FD and just play Bam Adebayo, who should smash the Warriors on the inside.
Zion Williamson ($8,200 DK/$8,300 FD) – Zion has been heating up lately –
Last night he played just 28 minutes and put up 31 real points and over 50 fantasy points. Portland is in the bottom half of the league in paint points given up, exactly what Zion does best. His 8.2 points in the paint this season is ninth in the league, and Enes Kanter could have some issues here defending the young phenom. What is really scary is Zion had a horrible start last night. He didn’t score his first points until 53 seconds left in the first quarter. Zion left with 8:46 left in the fourth. He did this damage more or less in one half of basketball.
Nerlens Noel ($4,700 DK/$5,300 FD) – Noel is much more an attractive target on FD due to his position. He’s logged 27 and 32 minutes in the two games the Knicks have been without Robinson, which is plenty at this salary. Despite the tough spot against Atlanta, he still climbed towards 30 FD points. This looks like another tough spot as Orlando is top 10 in rebounding and paint points allowed. However, Noel is not going to score a ton. He only has 16 real points in the past two games. You don’t need them because Noel will get his from blocks and rebounds, fitting perfectly on FD.
Honorable Mention – Bam, Julius Randle, Mo Wagner (if he’s starting)
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$10,500 FD) – Big. Honey. SZN. I would have wanted to play him in this spot if Denver was 100% healthy. That will certainly not be the case and we saw Jokic try to single-handedly win the game last night. He took 23 shots and was completely unstoppable. This is from yesterday –
Taking the three starters off the court bumps up Jokic too, which is no surprise. He’s just under a 30% usage rate and a 1.74 FPPM. We haven’t got him under $11,000 on either site lately.
He’s still under that threshold on FD and right at it on DK. Washington is 25th in paint points allowed and a Beal/Honey stack looks like one of my favorite plays of the entire slate.
Clint Capela ($7,500 DK/$8,000) – As much as I love Joker, your build may not start with him. If not, the spot for Capela is quite fascinating. We just attacked Boston on the inside with Joker. Capela isn’t going to drop 40+ real points (at least I don’t think so) but Boston has a big chance to struggle slowing Capela down. They are 23rd in paint points allowed and Capela is third in points in the paint. With Boston also being 19th in rebounding, this is a stealth smash spot for the Hawks big man.
Honorable Mention – Jonas Valanciunas, Enes Kanter, Robert Williams (if Daniel Theis is out again)
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
