Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15
We may only have seven games on this slate, but there are some incredible spots on paper and I am excited for this one. The biggest issue right now is deciding who to anchor the lineup with, and we’ll have no shortage of choices. We also already have some injury news that changes the complexion of the slate, so let’s dig into the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15 Injury Report
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O), Wendell Carter (Q)
Rockets – Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo (O)
Wizards – Ish Smith (O)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O)
Knicks – Mitchell Robinson (O)
Sixers – Joel Embiid (Q), Shake Milton (O)
Jazz – Mike Conley (O)
Cavaliers – Andre Drummond (O) Larry Nance (O)
Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)
Heat – Goran Dragic (O)
Clippers – Paul George (O)
Nets – Kevin Durant (O), DeAndre Jordan (Q)
Kings – Marvin Bagley (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15 Positions
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving ($9,000 DK/$9,600 FD) – Since the Harden trade, Kyrie and Harden have carried the load when KD has been off the court. Kyrie sits at a 1.33 FPPM with a 32.5% usage while Harden is at a 1.41 FPPM with a 27.4% usage rate. What’s interesting now is that Kyrie told the media that Harden is now the point guard of the team, while Irving is the shooting guard. That’s not going to change much except for a small drop in the assist rate for Kyrie, which sits at a 29.6% rate. Given the pace of this game with the Kings being in the top 12 and Brooklyn being fourth, Kyrie is an elite play. The big question for me is Kyrie or a shooting guard that we’re going to get to.
John Wall ($7,500 DK/$7,700 FD) – I mentioned yesterday that I wasn’t the biggest narrative person, but I make exceptions. John Wall against the Wizards is one of those exceptions. He can’t stand that they traded him and “gave up” on him, and we’ve seen him in this spot once. He only played 24 minutes but scored 24 real points en route to 30+ fantasy points. Now that we know Wall can play 35 minutes, this is an utter smash spot. Victor Oladipo being out just adds to that since Wall boasts a 34.8% usage rate and a 1.20 FPPM. Wall will be happy to show up Russell Westbrook if he’s on the sidelines tonight as well.
Kendrick Nunn ($5,600 DK/$5,500 FD) – He’ll be likelier for me on FD, but Nunn hasn’t seen his price rise enough for what is being asked from him yet. With Dragic still on the shelf, Nunn has been playing a ton and has 33, 41 and 34 minutes played in the last three. Even with Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro around, Nunn has still carved out a 0.87 FPPM with Dragic off the floor. The usage is just under 24% and when we get this amount of minutes behind that usage, we should be interested. Getting the Clippers on a back to back won’t hurt either.
Honorable Mention – Malcolm Brogdon, Tyrese Haliburton
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($10,700 DK/$10,600 FD) – I would suspect that Harden will be a very popular player tonight and with good reason. Kyrie may well be the primary ball scorer, but Harden is the primary ball-handler and his assist have been off the charts with the Nets. He’s only had two games where he hasn’t hit double-digits in assists and this game is set to be played at warp speed. As of this writing, he’s the highest priority and about the safest bet for 60 fantasy points tonight.
Bradley Beal ($8,900 DK/$9,800 FD) – This is the man that could throw a wrench into just locking in Kyrie and Harden. Beal may be without Russell Westbrook, as the Wizards are on a back to back. Westy has not played a back to back yet, and the DK price is crazy. On FD, it might be a little tougher to spend so much on the SG position. It will still be interesting to see how things come together. When Westy is off the floor, Beal has a 40% usage rate and a 1.60 FPPM. For context, Luka is at a 35.3% rate and Giannis is at 32.5%. Beal is $8,900. I prefer Beal to Kyrie to pair with Harden on DK and won’t think twice about it.
Eric Gordon ($6,400 DK/$6,200 FD) – A natural fit in FD especially, Gordon will be back for more after posting 40 fantasy points on both sites. Scoring 24 real points is always a good start, especially when you go 1-7 from beyond the arc. He also sports the second-highest usage rate on the team when Dipo is off the floor to go with a 1.07 FPPM. We have a game between two teams that are second and ninth in pace, and you can sign me all the way up if he fits the budget.
Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson (only one, and Clarkson is too cheap on FD. My likeliest path is Harden and Clarkson on FD, as sad as I would be to leave off Beal).
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($8,200 DK/$8,900 FD) – There are some factors to consider here before we go looking to put Butler in lineups. The first is the status of Kawhi Leonard. If he’s back for the Clippers (I suspect he just sat the front end against the Cavs to be ready for this game), I’d probably fade Butler. It’s not a diss at Jimmy Buckets, but he’s priced high and I don’t want to go against Klaw defense all night. If Kawhi is actually hurt and doesn’t play, Butler gets a lot more interesting. He had a bit of a down game last time out but he’s also flirted with a triple-double almost every single game since coming back from Covid. That’s quite impressive and Butler can put up close to 50 FD with under 15 real points scored.
Joe Ingles ($5,700 DK/$4,900 FD) – Ingles is still pretty underpriced on FD, my preferred site for him tonight. I do have to point out he’s not as automatic as he was last year, but that’s in part because Mitchell has been so good this season. Still, he has a 0.95 FPPM without Conley on the floor and the Philly defense is going to be focused on Mitchell. There is a fun little narrative about Ben Simmons and Donovan Mitchell dating back to Simmons winning rookie of the year over Mitchell, despite being drafted a year ahead of him. That’s for GPP’s though and Ingles is going to play over 30 minutes and distribute the ball. That’s all we need at $4,900 in this spot.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,900 DK/$4,500 FD) – Sometimes a pick can be uncomfortable but the numbers tell us it’s the right move. Gallo is that play tonight since he’s been tough to peg since coming back. The Knicks playing at the slowest pace doesn’t help, but Gallo sports a 24.7% usage rate across 206 minutes with Bogdan Bogdanovic off the floor. That’s to go along with a 0.85 FPPM and the salary is so low, we have to consider him to some extent. I’ll be interested to see if the field goes to him after a big game.
Honorable Mention – Harrison Barnes, Doug McDermott
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 DK/$9,600 FD) – This is among my favorite spots of the night, and I really wish there was a way to fit Harden/Beal/Sabonis. Considering that would leave us $4,200 on DK, I doubt that’s possible. Maybe it’s easier to get him with Harden and another stud on FD because Sabonis should go nuclear in this spot. Chicago is 20th in paint points allowed and 22nd in rebounding. Sabonis has nobody on Chicago that’s going to stop him and rocks a 1.30 FPPM with a 26.7% usage rate without Oladipo this year.
Draymond Green ($6,700 DK/$7,400 FD) – This seems like quite the bounce-back spot for Green. The Warriors got totally wrecked last game, but the Cavs aren’t very good and are coming off a game last night. Dray is sporting a 44.1% true shooting rate and a 12.8% usage but still has a 1.05 FPPM. He’s going to fall into stats in this game and it should be close.
Nerlens Noel ($4,400 DK/$4,800 FD) – I would expect Noel to be extreme chalk on FD, and popular on DK even though he’s only center eligible. Is he anything special? Not at all, but Thibs threw him out there for 32 minutes in the last game. Noel has a 0.89 FPPM with Robinson on the court and even in a not-so-great spot with Atlanta, I’m still very interested. The Hawks are fifth in rebounding and seventh in paint points allowed, but 32 minutes is too much to pass up.
Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Jarrett Allen (massive priority if Drummond would happen to be out), Jeff Green (if starting, and I think he will)
Center
Clint Capela ($7,400 DK/$7,800 FD) – The minutes are a little scary here for Capela as he hasn’t topped 29 since the third of this month. While that is an issue, he can also put up monster games in a hurry. Noel is not a good defender and the rebounding and paint defense take a hit with no Robinson in the lineup. Capela is actually right next to Trae Young in FPPM at 1.32 (Young has 1.34) and the price is back down to under $8,000. I don’t think he’ll be a giant priority for me and center is really weird today. There’s not a lot of prime options, driving the chalk even more to Noel on DK. FD is going to be more of a puzzle right now.
Richaun Holmes ($6,000 DK/$6,400 FD) – It’s a tougher slate for center and we have a solid one against Brooklyn, so this is easy math. Holmes is quietly one of the most active players in the paint in the league since he’s in the top 20 in paint touches and top 12 in paint points scored per game. Brooklyn is dead last in paint points allowed and just 13th in rebounding. I rarely turn my attention to Holmes, but this slate is perfect for him.
DeAndre Jordan ($4,500 DK/$5,400 FD) – On the flip side of this game, Sacramento is not much better guarding the paint. They are 26th in points allowed and 22nd in rebounding, which is in the DJ wheelhouse. He can catch 2-3 lobs from Harden, one dunk on his own, and a couple of free throws and fall into a double-double. The two center approach on DK with DJ and Noel is pretty interesting since you can get it done for under $9,000 and spend up on Harden, Beal, etc…. and that may be the route I explore.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
