Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12
It’s not going to be easy to not be overwhelmed tonight with a whopping 11 games on tap. These are the slates where it’s really best to cross off a few games right off the bat to lessen the load a little bit. We have injuries, back to backs and the normal NBA madness to deal with too. Let’s do our best to lay down a good foundation to build on in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 Injury Report
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (Q)
Wizards – Bradley Beal (O)
Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic (O)
Pistons – Mason Plumlee was a late inactive last night, we’ll see about tonight
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O), Keep tabs on Kemba on a back to back
Clippers – Paul George (O)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter, Otto Porter (O)
Thunder – Mystery bag, possibly including right up to tip
Nuggets – PJ Dozier, Gary Harris (Q)
Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)
Jazz – Mike Conley (Q)
Grizzlies – Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, De’Anthony Melton (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis (Q)
Cavaliers – Larry Nance (O)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)
Magic – They were down to nine players last night and could be again tonight. If (who knows) we would know before lock, this is a great game script for them. I’d build with 3-4 of them against a high-paced team but I tend to doubt we know. Terrence Ross, James Ennis, Chuma Okeke and Khem Birch are ALL in play along with Vucevic if they are down to 8-9 once again.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 Positions
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($9,000 DK/$8,700 FD) – For me, the higher end of this position begins and ends with Westy for cash. The price is low for any situation, but the Wizards are resting (cough protecting their best asset cough) Bradley Beal tonight. That’s the NBA’s leading scorer by an awful lot. When he’s off the floor this year, Westbrook is sporting a 39.7% usage rate and a 1.62 FPPM. We simply can’t pass that up at this salary, regardless of the Knicks playing at the slowest pace in the league. I don’t particularly love other Wizards since Westbrook will likely do so much, but we’ll adjust for ownership if needed.
LaMelo Ball ($7,700 FD) – He’s only in play A. on FD and B. if he continues to start. Graham is questionable and I would like to think that Ball has earned it, but you never know. With Graham off the court, Ball has a 1.24 FPPM and a 32.9% usage rate, both leading the team. With the Wolves being fifth in pace, this is the perfect kind of spot we want to target LaMelo in. With the blowout nature of last game, Ball did not see the floor in the fourth quarter. Hopefully everyone just sees the 35 fantasy points and skips out on him.
Dennis Schroeder ($6,400 DK/$6,200 FD) – We can back off if Anthony Davis is in, but he’s still questionable with the Achilles. The Lakers are likely to take it easy with him, so I’m eyeing Schroeder for sure. He’s topped 35 FD the past three games and played at least 37 minutes. Granted, the OT skews that a bit but he’s still playing plenty. He’ll see Ja Morant defense, which is always interesting and sees a 22.1% usage when AD is off the floor.
Patrick Beverly ($5,000 DK/$4,800 FD) – I will be honest that I would prefer not to play Beverly. He should be over 20 minutes tonight as he works his way back from injury and I’m not interested over on DK. On FD, the salary is low enough to consider. Chicago should pull up the Clippers with their second-fastest pace and Chicago hasn’t played defense since Michael Jordan was there. Beverly also gets a small bump in usage and FPPM when George is off the court. If no other value opens, we can turn here but I’m sure something pops up. The Magic could help out immensely.
Honorable Mention – Luka, Dame, De’Aaron Fox, Hamidou Diallo
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200 DK/$8,300 FD) – We can get Mitchell in a big-time pace up spot (Bucks are sixth, Jazz are 24th) and he has a 31.7% usage and 1.23 FPPM with Conley out? Sounds like a recipe for success. He’s closing in on 42% from deep and Milwaukee allows the seventh-highest percent and the fifth-most attempts. In addition, Mitchell is fourth in points per possession in spot up shooting and fifth in points from that play type. The Bucks are dead last defensively in that same metric possession-wise. Giddy up.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000 DK/$7,700 FD) – I’m not in love with the price on either site, but LMA remains out and DDR remains a strong cash option. I tend to not touch him on back to backs, and that paid off last time with just 24 DK points. Both teams are right about top half of the league in pace so this could shoot out to some extent. DeRozan drives to the hoop the fourth-most and even with Clint Capela there, he passes off a drive the third-most in the league. I prefer Mitchell, but wouldn’t tear apart a build to get to him over DDR if that’s how it works.
Collin Sexton ($6,600 DK/$6,500 FD) – The Cavs are coming off getting obliterated by the Nuggets, and this is a solid bounce-back spot. Portland plays at a much faster pace than the Cavs and remain 26th in defensive rating. Sexton is going to be scoring dependent for the most part but he has a 27.6% usage rate and the price has gone down just a bit too much. We can buy the dip in an elite spot at an iffy position.
Grayson Allen ($4,100 DK/$4,000 FD) – This one may seem off base, and we always preach transparency. Full disclosure, I want the model and the guys to check my work here. I can struggle with these lower-tier plays. I’m liking Allen tonight because of the secondary Grizzlies that are out. Allen should see solidified minutes (and he played 29 last game) and with Bane out, they’ll need to replace that shooting. Enter Allen, who is at 38.4% from deep and should see at least 30 minutes tonight. Plus, he went to Duke so I know that’s enough for some users in Discord 🙂
Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Tyrese Haliburton, Gary Trent, Kevin Huerter, Jordan Clarkson (FD only)
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,100 DK/$10,500 FD) – If LeBron is supposed to be coasting in the regular season, nobody told him. Back to back games with 40+ minutes on the court and the price dropped a hair? Sure. Even without OT, he was looking at 35 minutes a night and I’m taking that from Bron as long as AD is out. Memphis is 23rd in defensive rating and let’s be honest, blowout hasn’t been a concern with LA the past couple games. LeBron is a triple-double threat again and rocks a 33.4% usage rate and a 1.46 FPPM when AD sits.
Khris Middleton ($8,000 DK/$8,000 FD) – This is mostly a numbers play. Middleton played his normal 36 minutes but only scored 18 points, while dishing out another 11 assists. That makes a total of 23 in the time that Holiday has been out and it’s not very often he shoots 41% from the floor in any game. The veteran wing is at a 35.5% assist rate and a 1.47 FPPM with Holiday off the floor this year and I can’t see who defends him on the Jazz. He’s a lethal shooter that doesn’t need to get to the rim, avoiding Rudy Gobert. The price is more at the floor and not accounting for the ceiling.
Kenrich Williams ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – The field may well be pretty interested in Williams tonight, as the Thunder continue to limp into games with a very short rotation. He had a 20.5% usage last game, third on the team behind only Al Horford and Lu Dort. He fell just short of a 1.00 FPPM but with the amount of minutes we can expect, it almost doesn’t matter. He’s too cheap and OKC needs someone who can handle the ball, as they don’t exactly have a point guard by trade.
Joe Ingles ($5,900 DK/$4,900 FD) – I would expect some attention on Ingles, as he popped last time for 35 FD points in 35 minutes. He had the usage I was more expecting in that game at 21.9% and a 21% assist rate. Ingles gives DadBod guys hope, as he doesn’t exactly look like he should be in the NBA as he skipped the athletic look. Still, as a ball distributor in a fast-paced game, he’s interesting. It doesn’t hurt he can can some three’s and the Bucks have been a bottom team defending that shot for a while now.
Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, Lu Dort, Danilo Gallinari
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$8,600 FD) – It’s a fair price on DK but he’s underpriced on FD, and I would be surprised if he wasn’t chalky there. This is an amazing spot for him as there’s nobody down low to handle him and the Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league. Even if they slow down a bit with no Beal, the Knicks are dead last so it’s an improvement. Randle is threatening to lead the league in minutes because Thibs gonna Thibs. He’s also 12th in touches per game. Not paint touches mind you. TOTAL touches. Randle has been a little shaky results-wise lately but he should shake it off tonight and unleash the full 1.25 FPPM he averages.
Once again, PF looks to be a wasteland outside the top options. I’m not looking at Kristaps Porzingis as he’s too unstable for cash. Zion Williamson is scoring a lot fo real points, and not a whole lot else. You can certainly play Jayson Tatum and on DK he’s only $8,800 the much preferred target to Randle on that site. My plan is to spend on Randle or Tatum, and then drop down.
Isaiah Stewart drew the start for Mason Plumlee last night and smashed to the tune of 17/7 over 31 minutes. Honestly, if you tell me he’s getting 31 minutes again I’m in, let alone anything else. He will be the chalk du jour if Plum is out again tonight. We can also potentially look at the Magic for salary relief. Both Chuma Okeke and Khem Birch have been forced to play minutes and they cleared 20 last night as well. I lean Birch, but if you’re playing Stewart there’s no reason to double punt in cash.
Honorable Mention – Tatum, Darius Bazley, Kyle Kuzma (if AD is out)
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 DK/$9,800 FD) – Short and sweet – he’s the Magic offense right now, the Kings play at a wicked pace and they can’t defend centers. Richaun Holmes and Hassan Whiteside won’t have a thing for him and his 1.50 FPPM. I’m not concerned about the back to back and Vuc cleared 50 DK last night on a hideous shooting night (8-23) and being utterly invisible for most of the fourth quarter.
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,300 DK) – I’m not paying full freight on FD, but when do we ever get KAT at this price tag on DK? Towns played over 30 minutes in his first game back from Covid and recorded a double-double. He gets to pick on the Charolette front court that we target relentlessly in this game and D-Lo is already ruled out. KAT has logged only 71 minutes without D-Lo but sports a 1.43 FPPM on just a 24.3% usage. That’s 2% lower than his normal rate and won’t stay there, meaning he should clear 1.50 FPPM pretty easily.
Al Horford ($6,700 DK/$6,200 FD) – I’ll be very upfront and tell you this is NOT where I want to go, as I don’t care for the matchup against Big Honey in Denver. I feel like the field may like him after a massive game in LA, and Horford had nearly a 30% usage rate in that contest. If OKC continues to be down to 8-9 players, we have to pay attention to ownership. I’m hoping to not go down this road, but if he’s projected at 50% we need to listen. The good news is the Magic could be totally in the same boat, so we have options.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
