Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11
It was a frustrating night last night with the Pacers not being able to hit the broad side of a barn with their shot. The we get the “news” that Isaiah Roby was a late scratch roughly 10 minutes after lock. We were in the Discord trying to adjust on the fly, but things are tough when a player is $3,700. There’s not going to be a ton of options down there. Hopefully the five game slate tonight is more straightforward so let’s dig in to NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11 Injury Report
Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O)
Heat – Goran Dragic (O)
Rockets – Christian Wood (O)
Magic – Cole Anthony (Q), Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Michael Carter-Williams (O)
Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)
Sixers – Shake Milton (D)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/11 Positions
Point Guard
Steph Curry ($10,000 DK/$10,500 FD) – We could have a very popular punt at this position, meaning we can potentially spend up. The choice between Damian Lillard and Steph is very difficult, but I lean Steph. First, he could potentially have the far easier defensive matchup. If Cole Anthony for the Magic misses, Frank Mason is going to start. I’m going to go on a limb and say he can’t guard Curry. Surely the Magic will not leave him alone but still. It’s not good. Secondly, Curry leads the league in field goal attempts off screens. The Magic gives up the 10th most off screen points per possession, and the defense could be even worse tonight (not that Anthony worries me either).
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 DK/$7,200 FD) – We’ll see if I’m living in the mid-range tonight, but I tend to doubt it. If we do, I’m not going to hesitate to go right back to Brogdon. Not only is he 11th in minutes, he’s top five in total touches as well. The offense in Indy flows through Brogdon and Sabonis. I know they were hideously disappointing last night but they won’t shoot a combined 12-37 very often. The Pistons are 20th in defensive rating and this is a good bounce-back spot.
Frank Mason ($4,000 DK/$4,200 FD) – If Anthony is out for Orlando, Mason is going to be stone chalk. Not only has he gone over 20 DK in the past two games, he played massive minutes when Anthony left the game. Really, Orlando had no choice. They are thin all across the board. After Anthony left at the half, Mason played 20 of 24 minutes in the second. Mason has about a 62 minute sample in the scenario the Magic are in tonight. He’s got a respectable 19% usage rate and a 0.81 FPPM. At the salary, that’s enough for 32 minutes on the court.
Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, John Wall
Shooting Guard
Norman Powell ($6,700 DK/$6,800 FD) – You may be looking at this and wondering where Victor Oladipo is. It’s interesting to note that with Dipo and John Wall BOTH on the court, Dipo is only at a 23% usage and 0.95 FPPM. That’s over a 101 minute sample, and the correlation with Wall is negative. I’ll pass at that salary.
Onto Powell, the Raptors just play their guys so many minutes it’s hard to overlook. With OG off, Powell has a 21.4% usage rate and 0.88 FPPM. Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating and the Raptors should be able to pull Boston up form their 23rd ranked pace on the season. I’ll likely only use him on FD where I have to roster two.
Terrence Ross/Dwayne Bacon ($5,300 DK/$5,200 FD and $4,400 DK/$4,100 FD) – I’m mentioning both because both are viable. However, it depends on the build. I much prefer Ross. He has the higher upside, and right about the same floor. Ross has a 30% usage to 24.2% for Bacon and the FPPM favors Ross as well. That’s with Ross only sporting a 42% true shooting rate, and he’s much better than that. If the build leaves you without the money to get to Ross, I do get it. However, Ross took 18 shots last game and they need someone else but Nikola Vucevic to score in this offense right now.
Seth Curry ($4,700 DK/$4,100 FD) – It looks like Shake Milton won’t play here, so the Sixers will lean on a guy like Curry for his shooting just a bit more in this one. Playing against Portland doesn’t hurt either, since they are 28th in defensive rating. The Blazers also allow the sixth-highest frequency of three pointers allowed, a perfect spot for Curry. He played almost 30 minutes last game and went 7-13 from the field, a good sing returning from Covid.
Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, Tyler Herro
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($8,400 DK/$8,700 FD) – Jimmy Buckets is the kind of dude we love in cash games. Since returning, he’s not shot the ball more than 19 times and has been 15 attempts or under in five of six. Yet, he has not dipped below 44 DK in any of those gams and one game was just 26 minutes. We’ve talked about it a lot but the Rockets are top-five in pace since the Harden trade, which you love to see. Without Dragic, Buckets leads in assist rate and FPPM at 1.35. He’s still not expensive enough for the safety he brings.
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($5,100 DK/$5,300 FD) – Minutes equal money and JTA fits the bill. Life is going to be easier on him without Aaron Gordon in the lineup. Over the past 10 days, JTA has a 0.78 FPPM which isn’t too fun. However, he’s on the floor all the time. Since Kevan Looney got hurt, JTA has played 26, 39, 33, 28 and 26 minutes. That’s all we need at a very weak position after the top end.
James Ennis ($4,200 DK/$4,200 FD) – I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Ennis played 35 minutes last game and the Magic are going to be lucky if they have 10 players tonight. Ennis only has a 0.82 FPPM but with the Warriors playing at a top-five pace, he’s going to fall into some stats just like last game. Orlando only is 21st in pace, so this is a great spot for Ennis to have more opportunity. Pending who’s available, 3-4 Magic may be the route to go in cash just like the Thunder were last night.
Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Pascal Siakam (too pricey on FD again)
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($8,900 DK/$9,500 FD) – Tatum is under $9,000 on DK and is in a good bounce-back spot himself. He managed to put in 23 real points while shooting 7-20 last game and only had four rebounds, dealing with the likes of Rudy Gobert in Utah. Boston is back home after a rough West Coast swing and Tatum gets a pace up spot against a sub-par defensive team. On the year, Tatum leads the team with a 31.3% usage rate and the price is tantalizing. When a player can knock out almost 35 DK on 35% from the floor and four boards, I’m interested to buy that next game.
Chris Boucher ($6,000 DK/$6,4000 FD) – I’m pretty torn on Boucher here. On the one hand, he’s reeled off three straight double-doubles and was popular yesterday. On the other, his minutes have gone down in each game. That doesn’t make sense through the fantasy lens, but I will admit I don’t get a chance to watch a lot of the Raptors. When he’s on the floor, he’s a fantasy beast with a 1.24 FPPM. Boston is 25th in paint points allowed and 23rd in rebounding, so the spot makes a ton of sense. We’ll let projected ownership guide us here.
Honorable Mention – Sabonis, Tobias Harris, Draymond Green (there’s not a ton of value here yet, making it more probable that Boucher is very popular on FD at least)
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 DK/$9,800 FD) – The fringe Magic are yet to be decided, but you can give me all the Vuc tonight. His price isn’t coming up quick enough and the FPPM is massive at 1.52. It’s a pace up spot, and he’s the offense. Sure, Draymond Green can follow him around on the court like some centers can’t, but Vuc has the advantage on the glass. Golden State is only 17th in rebounding and 18th in paint points allowed. They also allow a three point attempt over 40% of the time and Vuc is shooting just under 42% from deep. I won’t be shocked to see another 55-60 DK tonight. The double C on DK of Vucevic and Boucher could make a lot of sense.
Enes Kanter ($7,000 DK/$6,500 FD) – I’m not excited to look at other centers on FD or elsewhere, but Kanter strikes me as a possibility. Foul trouble is a little scary going against Joel Embiid, but Kanter is under 2.5 fouls per game. You have to play defense to foul other players, in honesty. These two teams jus faced off and Kanter put up a huge double-double for a 41 DK night. Kanter isn’t going to be popular, I would guess but there’s a good reason to play him. He’s the only one that can bring much needed size to the court against Biid, and you just hope the fouls don’t get him.
Honorable Mention – Embiid, maybe Cousins but after his past two games nobody will play him
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