Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10
Wednesday brings us a nine game slate, and we have no shortage of news already. We know that the Bucks will be without Jrue Holiday for a bit, due to health protocols. That’s going to open up some different avenues, and players like Chris Paul are still questionable. There’s going to be plenty to discuss for this slate tonight int the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10 and find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10 Injury Report
Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo (O)
Nets – Kevin Durant (O)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (O)
Grizzlies – Brandon Clarke, De’Anthony Melton (O)
Clippers – Paul George (O), Patrick Beverly (Q)
Wolves – KAT (D), D’Angelo Russell (Q)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)
Cavaliers – Larry Nance (O)
Nuggets – Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)
Thunder – Mike Muscala, Isaiah Roby (Q), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill (O) and Maledon (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis (Q)
Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)
Suns – Chris Paul, Jae Crowder (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10 Positions
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DK/$10,900 FD) – With both Milwaukee and Oklahoma City already presenting value plays, it’s not going to be much of an issue to spend on Luka. Trae Young turns the ball over the second-most in basketball (and Luka is fourth) so Luke has some steals upside. He’s been a little flighty lately but still has one of the highest ceilings on any given night. It’s a great spot spot for Luka and he just put up 64 DK on Young and the Hawks about a week ago. We attack Young’s defense often, we may as well do it with one of the NBA’s best.
Kyle Lowry ($7,300 DK/$7,600 FD) – The mid-range here is pretty loaded. I want to go with LaMelo Ball to some extent, since he’s a threat to triple-double every night. Going against Ja Morant is a recipe for success as well. Still, when Lowry is going to see 35 minutes against the Wizards for a cheaper price, it’s hard to turn away from that. The veteran for the Raptors is in the top 25 in steals per game and Russell Westbrook is first in turnovers. That’s a great mix as is the 21.8% usage rate. Bottom line is we want some type of Raptors love in the lineup tonight, and the salary is super reasonable for Lowry.
Tomas Satoransky ($4,400 DK/$4,000) – We have another punt special in Satoransky. The Pelicans have been playing fast lately, and are on a back to back with travel tonight. Sato has gotten more reliable minutes lately with the injuries the Bulls are dealing with. In this scenario, he only has a 13.6% usage rate but the 31.9% assist rate is the best on the team. The 1.23 FPPM shows he can fill up the stat sheet and can flirt with 30 DK here.
Honorable Mention – Trae Young, Russell Westbrook (DK price is SILLY), Malcolm Brogdon, Terry Rozier, Hamidou Diallo (easier to play on DK)
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($10,400 DK/$10,600 FD) – The Nets postgame was already talking about Kyrie potentially sitting in this game, and Brian mentioned his shot was wonky last night. He actually shot left-handed. Not great, Bob! The Nets have the long-term on their minds, so I suspect it’s the Harden show tonight. Harden has played about a 120 minute sample without the other two bug guns and rocks about a 30% usage and a 1.58 FPPM. There’s not much else to say other than that. Malcolm Brogdon is a great defender, but nothing I worry about against the Beard. My cash at the high-end will likely start with Harden and a certain power forward in this game.
Devin Booker ($8,100 DK/$7,700 FD) – I’m going to be clear that I’d only play Booker IF CP3 IS OUT. If that happens, we get Point Booker and we just saw how that goes. When Paul is off the floor, Booker spikes to a 32.9% usage rate and a 1.20 FPPM and the price isn’t high enough. The pace is a huge jump for the Suns, who sit 27th in the league right now. The Bucks are playing at a top 10 rate and bonus city for Booker – there’s no Jrue Holiday on the other side. If CP3 is in, I’m likely to just go down the salary levels here.
Bryn Forbes ($3,800 DK/$4,200 FD) – With Jrue out, Forbes drew the start for the Bucks and did just fine for DFS with 15 real points and 23.8 DK. He’s still under $4,000 on DK, so expect him to be popular and I’m rolling right with that. He played 25 minutes and without Holiday, Forbes has a 0.73 FPPM and a 20% usage. That’s plenty at this salary range.
We should also strongly consider Bruce Brown here if Kyrie sits. Ghost pointed out that Brown normally is a much better play if they need a ball handler. That’s exactly what they would need if Kyrie sits, so we have plenty of value options at this position tonight. That makes it easy to plug and play Harden.
Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal, Fred VanVleet, Zach LaVine, Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo (could be a better play than Forbes on FD, I’ll be interested to see what the model says)
Small Forward
Pascal Siakam ($8,300 DK) – I’m not writing up the FD price because it is astronomical, and I can’t get there on that site. Washington is 27th in paint points allowed and it’s tough to see a route that Siakam is guarded well tonight. He’s got the team lead in usage rate at 25.4% and Siakam is right at five paint touches per game. I look at this one sort of like when they just played the Nets. Spicy P poured in 33 real points and the Raptors kept feeding him, because the Nets really couldn’t stop him. I don’t expect the Wizards to be able to either, and they play at a top-five pace.
Khris Middleton ($7,700 DK/$7,600 FD) – I feel like Middleton is borderline locked for me on FD. He and Giannis both sport an assist rate over 34% when Holiday is off the floor. That’s helping lead him to a massive 1.53 FPPM and for perspective, Giannis is at a 1.65 mark. That’s really not that big of a gap and Middleton had a huge game without Holiday just last time out. The price hasn’t moved enough yet since he’s under $8,000 on both sites. On DK, you could start with Harden, Forbes, Middleton, Isaiah Roby and the PF we haven’t got to yet and still have $5,200 left per player.
Justin Holiday ($5,500 DK/$5,300 FD) – I would think Holiday is going to be FD only, but I’m undecided on that. The Nets will play slower if Kyrie is out, because it will be a lot of Harden ISO plays but they’ll still be in the upper half of the league. There’s not getting around there’s not much special here for Holiday in general. The FPPM is 0.78 and the usage is 13.7%. Why are we looking here? Simple – the Nets are a bottom five defense in the league and Holiday plays a boatload of minutes. If we’re looking at Middleton, a value option makes sense on FD especially.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,500 DK/$3,800 FD) – Over on FD, Gallo really stands out as a value. He’s back to playing 25 minutes and that just might be enough for near minimum price. The Mavericks are allowing a 41.5% three point attempt frequency and that fits what we need for Gallo. He only has a 0.74 FPPM with the Hawks in the scenario they are in tonight. Still, at the price and with the Dallas matchup I am interested.
Honorable Mention – LeBron James (man is on a mission right now), Kawhi Leonard (no PG but competitiveness of the game is iffy), Mikal Bridges (if no CP3), Joe Harris (if no Kyrie)
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($8,600 DK/$9,300 FD) – There’s really just two things I want to hit on here. First, lock him on DK cash without even a second thought. Seriously. Stop reading, go to DK and put Sabonis at the PF spot in your cash lineup. I’ll wait.
OK, cool, you’re back. Secondly, we say that we (myself, Ghost and Brian) don’t really talk about a slate before the articles are out. I don’t need to talk to these guys to know we’re hammering Sabonis across the board. He’s a triple-double threat tonight and has the fifth-most paint touches in the league, along with the fifth-most points. ALL. IN. This is one of the easiest plays on the board and this is the PF that I said we can pair up with the four other players to have $5,200 leftover.
Zion Williamson ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – Zion was held back a little bit by foul trouble last night but he posted 38 FD in just 20 minutes. That actually should help us tonight, as we should expect full run for the second-year stud. Zion is averaging over eight points in the paint on the season and Chicago is 15th in defending that. We always target the front court for the Bulls and that’s where they are thinnest right now. I may not be able to consider Zion over Sabonis, but you could certainly play both if that’s the route you want.
Isaiah Roby ($3,700 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’m not going to be a huge fan of the matchup if Anthony Davis plays, but he’s simply too cheap and I would guess is super chalk on DK. Roby has missed a couple games but the last we saw him he was logging 33 minutes. The 0.95 FPPM is solid, especially at this price tag. I want to see what projections say, but the mix of minutes and price are hard to ignore right now.
Honorable Mention – Darius Bazley, Chris Boucher (look to the model), Frank Kaminsky (if Suns are still out)
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,100 FD) – Do we need to spend all the way up? Maybe not, but that doesn’t change the fact the Joker is just a fantasy monster and is the only player on the slate who averages 60 DK. Cleveland is actually not an easy matchup on paper as they are eighth in paint points but they are 25th in rebounding. Not that it’s a major factor, but the last time Jokic saw Andre Drummond he dropped 82 DK points in 40 minutes of play. That’s obviously the ceiling, but Jokic is always one of the safest bets for cash.
Deandre Ayton ($7,100 DK/$7,700 FD) – Whenever he’s under $8,000, we should pay attention. Ayton should really be able to hit the glass in this one, considering that Brook Lopez only averages 5.1 per game. Meanwhile, Ayton is sitting over 18 rebounding chances per game and sees a usage bump of about 1.5% when CP3 is off the floor. A 15/15 game with a couple blocks is certainly not out of the question here though he’s not my favorite tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 DK/$7,200 FD) – My Name is Jonas!! Just a quick reminder that the Blue Album from Weezer is the goat. Anyways, it’s been a hot minute since JoVal has been in the cash article. We’re not just chasing the ceiling game against the Raptors, we’re chasing the fact that he played 33 minutes. JoVal scores almost eight points per game in the paint, and Charlotte is 29th in defending that. Also, they’re only 15th in rebounding and Valanciunas is seventh in rebounding chances per game. This is a total smash spot at a reasonable price. The 1.39 FPPM is the highest on the team but a good bit, with Kyle Anderson being second at 1.17. I love him tonight and he’s likely my C of choice on FD and maybe DK, but I can use Sabonis there if needed.
Honorable Mention – Clint Capela, Myles Turner (might be more GPP but double big man against the Nets seems awfully fun and he’s very cheap on DK), Naz Reid, Trez Harrell if AD is out
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