Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27
There were not a ton of misses in the article yesterday and that’s what we love to see. Tonight we’re already down a stud player in Russell Westbrook and we have multiple teams on back to back situations. Even in this early stage of the season, that needs to be monitored through the day. Please make sure you’re in the Discord to get all pertinent updates for what you need to know for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD) – Kyrie has been absolutely cooking early on with a 27.4% usage rate and a 1.59 FPPM. The blowout concern is real, as the Hornets are on a B2B but I still feel like Kyrie is underpriced. Also, the spread is currently only eight points so I don’t make decisions until the spread gets to about 12 points. The Nets are playing at a top 10 pace early on and that’s not going anywhere.
Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$8,300 FD) – Steph is the better value on FD but I’m still comfortable playing him in cash on both sites. Yes, they’ve gotten smoked the first two games but tonight they play the Bulls. I don’t think they can lose by the third quarter here and Curry is not going to shoot 20% from deep for much longer.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – Rinse and repeat. Fox gets the Suns again on a back to back and his price dropped. There’s no reason to not feel comfortable going back to the well.
Markelle Fultz ($6,000 DK/$5,900) – Another home and home spot and Fultz has started off the season hot. He scored 21 points last night and has average 18/4.5/5.5 in the first two. In this spot against a poor defensive team, sign me up again.
Darius Garland ($5,900 DK/$6,200 FD) – Garland is over a 20% usage rate to start the season and he’s played at least 32 minutes in each game. Cleveland will ask their young backcourt of Garland and Collin Sexton to do a lot this year, even on B2B.
Ish Smith ($5,700 DK/$3,900 FD) – He’s almost minimum on FD and you need two point guards. Do the math. He should start for Westbrook tonight (and if he doesn’t I’m not that excited for him) and has played 22 minutes in each game so far. If he gets closer to 30, he’s a free square on FD and still a strong play on DK.
*Update* The Model is loving Raul Neto, so keep an eye out for who’s starting.
Jeff Teague ($4,400 DK/$5,200 FD) – Teague burned everyone on Christmas Day, but he’s still going to play 20+ minutes and has the third-highest usage behind Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. That’s enough for me and he’s a better play on DK than he is on FD.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($8,900 DK/$8,500 FD) – The FD pricing is disrespectful and it seems crazy to me that DK knew Russ was sitting tonight and still lowered Beal’s price. Still, he’s one of my highest priorities for the night with no Westbrook. This comes with a giant grain of salt due to a 12 minute sample size, but Beal has a 41% usage rate with Westy off the court early. He’s my starting point in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27.
Devin Booker ($9,500 DK/$7,500 FD) – I can almost promise I won’t have Booker on DK, but give me a break with this FD price. It’s not even a question for a player of Booker’s caliber. He should never be under $8,000.
Zach LaVine ($7,900 DK/$7,000 FD) – It hasn’t been the smoothest start for LaVine as the fantasy production hasn’t been there. However, there’s two factors to note. One, he hasn’t played over 28 minutes yet. Two, the usage rate is a ridiculous 38.3%. He’s too cheap on both sites and it’s a matter of time before he’s heading towards 50 fantasy points.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,600 FD) – You need to have short memories when a player flops due to shooting. That was the case with Bledsoe on Christmas Day. He’s still third on the team in usage rate at about 20% and he’s played 33 and 34 minutes so far.
Seth Curry ($5,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – He’s a guy that can get ho behind the arc but has played an average of 30 minutes in the first two games. He’s too cheap for his role, and 0.71 FPPM is enough for this amount of court time and salary.
Small Forward
*Update* LeBron is a bigger priority now that Anthony Davis has been ruled out.
Kevin Durant ($9,400 DK/$9,500 FD) – KD is only PF eligible on DK but either way, he’s a valuable player. Already playing 33 minutes and looking as smooth as ever, Durant and Kyrie are forming a very formidable duo. He actually has a 2% lead in usage over Kyrie.
Brandon Ingram($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – One of the bright young stars in the game, Ingram has racked up a usage rate over 29% so far and has a 1.31 FPPM. He’s played 37 minutes in each contest and that combo can’t be overlooked in this pricing tier.
Jaylen Brown ($7,100 DK/$8,000 FD) – Brown and Tatum have been running the Cletics early and they have identical 33% usage rates. Brown has a slight edge in FPPM at 1.35 so far and has poured in at least 27 real points in both games. The Pacers played last night and may have slightly tired legs.
Tobias Harris ($6,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – There’s nothing wrong with looking at some Sixers as the Cavs played a double overtime game last night. Harris or Curry gets a cheaper path than Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid and Harris has a 20.7% usage rate so far. He can be a little scoring reliant, but the salary is low enough to still consider.
Keldon Johnson ($5,500 DK/$5,100) – Let’s just say I’m happy I only have to field one on DK. It’s not my favorite position ad maybe we’ll get a value to pop up. Johnson has played 32 and 28 minutes so far and I could see the Spurs using their vets a couple minutes fewer tonight. Johnson has accumulated almost a 20% usage rate so far and just over a 1.00 FPPM.
*Update* Cedi Osman – Kevin Porter and Isaac Okoro are both out tonight, vaulting Cedi into a bigger role.
*Update* Marcus Morris – He’s popping in the model and that’s all I need.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500 DK/$11,500) – Greek is the first and only Buck I’ll play in cash because if this game blow out (spread is 12.5 right now), I don’t think that happens without Giannis getting his. He still has nearly a 38% usage rat even with his new teammates in tow. He’s very underpriced on DK.
Jayson Tatum ($8,800 DK/$9,800 FD) – I don’t think Tatum will be under $9,000 too often on DK and that’s all we need. We talked about the same usage as Brown at 33% and he’s going to play around 35 minutes every single night.
Zion Williamson ($8,200 DK/$7,900 FD) – He exploded on Christmas and it was a good reminder of what exactly he can do. The 27.9% usage rate and 1.27 FPPM is awesome to start he season. Even better, he played 38 minutes. If we don’t have to sweat minutes and “bursts” with Zion this year, I’m going to love him a lot of nights.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,500 DK/$6,400 FD) – We don’t exactly love the usage rate at 17.8% but the 1.35 FPPM is sweet. Markkanen has played 27 and 30 minutes, and who’s going to guard him on the Warriors if Draymond Green remains out? If Dray is in, we don’t need to go here but I’ll take Markkanen against the like of Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre all day.
Nemanja Bjeica ($4,800 DK/$3,900 FD) – I have a strong suspicion that Marvin Bagley will sit tomorrow. The Kings will be cautious with their oft-injured big man so far. Bjecia should draw a spot start in that scenario. Make sure you check the Discord for info on this play. It’s contingent on other factors.
Center
Joel Embiid ($9,800 DK/$9,900 FD) – He’s going to have the narrative going for him. He and Andre Drummond DO NOT like each other and have traded barbs on social media multiple times. Biid has had some monster games against Drum and some average ones.
He’s probably a little more GPP than cash, but I wanted to give him a note with the narrative working for him.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – Just far too cheap on each site. His price on DK is crazy as it dropped $800. All Vuc did last night was drop a 50 burger on DK and he could well do it again tonight.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,100 DK/$6,200 FD) – You may be surprised to see this is the first Laker in the article against the Wolves. Here’s the thing – neither LeBron nor Anthony Davis have been over 31 minutes so far. I don’t think that’s by accident with not even 75 days off. I am really loathe to pay top dollar for those guys when the minutes are lower. Enter Trez, who gets a great matchup and plays about 30 per night right now.
Bismack Biyombo *Update* I have serious concerns if he can keep up in this game. I don’t think I’m going there but it’s hard to kill your lineup at $3,800 if you play about 25 minutes.
Hassan Whiteside *Update* – It seems the model really likes Whiteside and perhaps he’s the answer if in fact Marvin Bagley is sitting (not official as of this writing)
*Note* As of Saturday night, there’s not a center that I love for cheap. We’ll update as we see fit but this may well be a position to spend a little bit on. Really, all cheap value hasn’t shown up yet but it will because it always does in NBA. Look for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27 to be updated as we can tomorrow.
Core Four (Always stay plugged into Discord)
Bradley Beal, LeBron James, Montrezl Harrell, Raul Neto
I’m perfectly fine playing 3 Lakers tonight out of LeBron, Schroeder, Rez and Morris. Neto should be able to pay off a meager price tag without much issue and I’ve loved Beal since last night. Stay tuned for changing factors the next couple of hours!
Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
