Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/9
There’s seven games on tap for the night and honestly, I’m kind of happy we dodge the Philly mess on the main slate. I hope everyone stays healthy and gets better soon, but that rotation is going to be a nightmare. We do have at least one stud that we know is out, so the slate is sure to change around a bit before tip. Let’s get to work and lay the baseline for what games to target and plays we want in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/8!
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($11,000 DK/$11,600 FD) – We haven’t really talked about Luka much this season so far. That’s pretty out of character from me, because Luka might be my favorite player in the league. He’s not been exactly what we thought at the start of the year, and he’s “been playing himself into shape”. I think he’s there, logging 70+ DK points in the past two games. Tonight the Mavs are super thin, with Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith all out. There’s only a nine minute sample of Luka with those three ALL off the court, which is a 40.1% usage and 2.14 FPPM. One of the biggest struggles for Luka so far has been from deep at just 20.8% but that won’t stick around. He’s going to be popular with recent form and with an easy pairing at guard to save salary.
Damian Lillard ($9,500 DK/$9,700 FD) – What does this man need to do to get a significant price bump? He dropped almost 70 DK in three quarters last time out and the price raised just $200 on DK. The Blazers and Kings are virtually tied for 10th in pace and bottom five in real points allowed. It’s basically a carbon copy of the last game against the Wolves. Sure, that game blew out, but Dame was the reason it did. You’re going to be happy if he goes for 60+ again, which isn’t out of the question.
Dejounte Murray ($6,900 DK/$7,100 FD) – It was a little easier to pay this salary for him when LaMarcus Aldridge was out, but the matchup makes up for it. Murray still sits at the second-highest usage rate and FPPM on the team even with Aldridge. He averages over 70 touches per game and the Spurs are quietly running a lot, eighth in pace. It just so happens that the Wolves are seventh in pace, and this could be a quiet track meet (and a fun game stack overall).
Raul Neto ($4,100 DK/$4,200 FD) – Both sites continue to let Neto’s price be a free square even though we know Russell Westbrook sits on back to back games. As long as he starts (no reason to think he won’t, but Ish Smith is always lurking), don’t overthink it in cash. Neto has a 19.1% usage rate and a 0.99 FPPM with Westy off the floor. He’s shown floor with about 20 DK and massive ceiling with about 40 DK already with Westbrook out, and if he goes for 40 again without you, you could be cooked. Miami is only about mid-pack in pace but the situation is too good to pass up.
Trey Burke ($3,000 DK/$4,100 FD) – On FD, the play is Neto with a higher-priced option. On DK, you could potentially play Luka, Neto AND Burke. With Brunson out, the guard ranks thin out and now with Richardson and DFS out, the offense will need some help. I think Burke is that man, but he would be DK only on a short Mavericks rotation. I would want confirmation from the model before locking him in or anything else.
Honorable Mention – LaMelo Ball (I just hate 24 minutes a night. It really doesn’t make sense to me), Malcolm Brogdon, Cole Anthony if he gets full minutes on a back to back
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,700 DK/$10,100 FD) – The price is up there, no arguments. You could also argue that Beal has been “average” without Westbrook, scoring under 50 FD in both chances so far. He’s still sitting at a 38.5% usage rate and a 1.55 FPPM on 58% true shooting without Westbrook so far. We already have some strong vale from Dallas, before we’re even on the day of the slate. I don’t see many reasons to fade him yet, but I will be interested to see what ownership projects to. It’s possible the field goes Luka and leave Beal on the sidelines.
D’Angelo Russel ($8,100 DK/$7,800 FD) – If we like the pace matchup in this game, it only stands to reason that D-Lo makes the list. We talked about him in the last game, and said he was due a big game with his usage hovering around 30% and a FPPM about 1.15. Then Dame Dolla had to go Wolverine berserker and put the game out of reach early. D-Lo still almost had 40 DK, so if this game stays closer we’re cooking with gas. The only caveat here is the status of Karl Anthony-Towns. He’s possibly making his return and if he does D-Lo is a little too expensive for cash.
Victor Oladipo ($7,000 DK/$7,200 FD) – I don’t overly love Dipo tonight as this projects as a slow game. Phoenix is the slowest team in the league and allowing the fewest real points, not exactly the bench marks we look for. However, Dipo has the highest usage rate on the Pacers without T.J. Warren at 28.1% and his true shooting is only 51.3%. When a player is averaging over 20 real points on that low of a shooting rate, there’s more potential than some might think. He’s been a lock for about 35 DK every night so far, leaving him as a floor play if nothing else.
Tyrese Haliburton ($5,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – The rookie played 29 minutes last night and filled the stat sheet again, with 15/8/2. He’s a player we’re going to like because he can do a bit of everything. His minutes last night weren’t even blowout-related, as he was pulled off the floor at 5:08 left in the fourth. Had this one been close, he may have crossed 30. For cash, we want players like Haliburton over shooters like Buddy Hield. It’s worth the extra $200 and he’s averaging over 28 minutes as is with a 0.96 FPPM and a 14.4% usage rate. That’s pretty solid work for a rookie.
Duncan Robinson ($4,300 FD) – THIS IS A FANDUEL ONLY PLAY. That’s why I didn’t even list the DK price. Robinson is never a guy we talk about, because he’s not cash-safe. But, we need two and if you have designs to pay up to Beal and Luka, you have to save somewhere. Robinson only has a 16.6% usage rate and he’s strictly a three point bomber. He’s 14th in attempts per game at eight, and this is the best pace he can have. With 30 minutes per game, he can take advantage of Washington’s 40.3% allowed from deep, second-highest in the league.
Honorable Mention – Collin Sexton (if active)
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($7,400 DK/$8,100 FD) – Oh how I love Jimmy Buckets tonight. His price is incredibly cheap on DK, and it’s a nice thing I have value to play already. He’s been volatile to start the year but is seemingly finding his stride with 33 and 48 FD points in his last two. The 33 FD game he only played 25 minutes. Butler has the highest usage on the Heat at 27.2% and a 1.15 FPPM. His true shooting is 49.9%, which is about 8% under his career average. I’m betting he finds some shots against the Wizards at this pace and poor defense.
Tim Hardaway ($5,900 DK/$5,500 FD) – It’s a Brian Tulloch Day, otherwise known as THJ Day. Look, someone other than Luka has to take some shots in this game. He’s been off the bench the past two games but the Mavs don’t really have a choice tonight. Roughly 28-ish field goal attempts per game are out of the lineup tonight and THJ is here to get buckets. The Magic are coming off a destruction from the Rockets, and the back to back won’t do their defense any favors.
Harrison Barnes ($6,400 DK/$6,300 FD) – Barnes is not the most exciting option, but cash options aren’t always exciting. Barnes plays 35 minutes per night, and that’s workable for a 0.93 FPPM. When you catch him on a night that he shoots well, the ceiling is high but he’s generally a safe bet for 25-30. The Blazers allow the fifth-most points and remain in the top 10 in pace, the kind of game that I want to use Barnes in.
Cedi Osman ($6,200 DK/$5,400 FD) – The price is getting uncomfortable on DK but on FD there’s meat on the bone. It’s going to be tough for Cleveland to keep this game close and in honesty, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if a Buck sat. Keep an eye out because if anyone sits, that’s a slate changer. Anyways, Cedi is one of the only offensive greats the Cavs have. Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Kevin Porter and Dante Exum are all still out and Collin Sexton is questionable.
Cedi is shooting 34% from three and the Bucks allow the ninth-most attempts per game. He’s not going to come off the floor as he played 38 minutes last game. With the player out that are missing, Cedi has a 120 minute sample size where the true shooting is 36.7%. Yikes. It can only go up from there.
Honorable Mention – Gordon Hayward (don’t expect 44 real points against the Hawks again), Khris Middleton
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 DK/$8,800 FD) – If you’re trying to play Beal and Luka, Sabonis is the only somewhat realistic spend-up option here. Playing Giannis with Luka and Beal is really not the best case play because of the chances you have to take. Sabonis is top 10 in paint touches and points int the paint, which is going to make life hard on Deandre Ayton. Both the Suns and Pacers are bottom four in rebounds, so Sabonis could conceivably take advantage of his 11.4 chances per game. That’s also in the top 10 and the Suns are 20th in rebounds allowed in the paint.
John Collins ($7,500 DK/$6,800 FD) – You’re always going to sweat the foul trouble, and he’s a better play on FD to be sure. He just dropped 40 DK on this Charlotte team and that was with Trae Young playing poorly. Collins is just under eight paint touches per game and is sixth in points in the paint on the season. Charlotte is 25th in points allowed in the paint this year and just middle of the pack in rebounds. He should check in as popular on FD.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300 DK/$6,400 FD) – It’s pretty annoying that he’s only a C on DK, but LMA is too cheap regardless. He played over 30 minutes last game, the first time all year. He’s only at a 1.03 FPPM so far but that’s kept his pricing low. The Wolves are going to have a hard time controlling him down low, even if KAT plays. If LMA plays a solid 32 minutes tonight, he’s a big bargain. I’m not sure if I want to use him on DK with the position restrictions, but the FD price and restrictions make him a very appealing cash option.
Juancho Hernangomez ($4,500 DK/$4,600 FD) – Over the past week, Juancho has been playing more minutes and has responded for fantasy. He’s rocking a 1.04 FPPM in the last week over 81 minutes, more than enough at this range. We want the three ball for Juancho to be falling for the upside, and guess which team happens to lead the league in field goal percentage given up from three? That’s right, it’s the Spurs. Let’s get Juancho out in a high-pace game with a team that can’t defend the three and we could get the 10x game we got two games ago. OK, maybe not that high, but you get the drift. We do need KAT to remain out to be super confident.
Honorable Mention – Davis Bertans, maybe Aaron Gordon but I don’t love he’s sill not over 30 minutes and he sat yesterday.
Center
Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DK/$8,500) – I absolutely prefer Jimmy Buckets, but Bam is in a smash spot of his own. The multi-faceted big man gets the pace up spot, a terrible defense and one that can’t guard him in the paint. The Wizards are 25th in paint rebounds and 28th in paint points allowed, which is perfect for Bam. He’s sitting at a 24% usage rate and a 1.24 FPPM on the season, so there’s nothing inherently wrong with playing him. I just think Butler will likely be chalkier (especially on DK) so we just eat that chalk.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,500 DK/$6,200 FD) – The Kings don’t have a big man that can contend with Nurkic down low and his price hasn’t moved. He’s hit at least 26 DK in the past three games despite playing just 23 minutes in two of them, waking up from a slow start. The Bosnian Beast has had a true shooting of at least 56.7% over the past two seasons, and is only at 51% so far. If he’s getting nearly 28-32 minutes tonight, he’s going to wreck this price tag with a 21.4% usage and a 1.12 FPPM.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,000 DK/$4,100 FD) – Oh look, more Dallas value! WCS has been moved into the staring lineup and played 20+ minutes in the past two games, but remains dirt cheap. They’re going to need some size to contend with Nikola Vucevic in this game, and WCS should get another 24 minutes or so. He has a 0.93 FPPM on the season and as always, you don’t need all the Dallas guys. It just depends on the build.
Honorable Mention – Vucevic, Clint Capela
*Note* I may have to leave the cores in Discord tomorrow due to work. They will be posted in the NBA-research tab to find them easily.
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