NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/8

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/8

We have a sprawling 10 game slate tonight, and there are stars all over the board. We do have players on a back to back spot like Brooklyn and the Lakers, not to mention injuries to watch already. We all know the madness that is the NBA during the day, so let’s lay the base for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/8 to get into the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

*Note* We may not have a lot of options at the high end. Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and De’Aaron Fox are all questionable. Kyrie Irving did not travel with the team. This position may have to be used in the mid-range and lower just out of necessity.

LaMelo Ball ($6,500 DK/$6,900 FD) – Ball is a little more expensive than I would prefer, but point guard might be very weird tonight. I can’t understand why he played less minutes last game, when all he did was produce 13/8/5 in just 24 minutes. Ball fills the stat sheet when he’s on the floor and can’t be denied much longer. New Orleans is playing at the fifth-slowest pace on the year but that’s not going to stop Ball from contributing. He’s got a 23.4% usage and is rocking a 1.26 FPPM with just a 51.9% true shooting rate.

George Hill ($4,800 DK/$5,600 FD) – Another fairly mediocre player as far as “do I want to play him”, but Hill checks boxes at the salary. He’s still getting about 26-28 minutes a night and has a usage rate over 20% at almost a 1.00 FPPM. I don’t trust the Knicks to be a good enough defensive team that they’ll be inside the top five in points allowed for much longer.

Elfrid Payton ($6,500 DK/$5,500 FD) – I feel like we’ve hit this point every slate lately, but Elf is a much better play on FD. His price simply does not change and he’s only at $5,500 after dropping almost 40 FD last game. The usage has climbed up over 24% with a 26.3% assist rate on top of it. OKC is in the top half in pace, so Elf has a little bit more of a chance to run and gun here. There’s no reason for Payton to not continue to log heavy minutes.

Cole Anthony ($5,000 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’ll be interested to see what the model makes of Anthony, and what he’s projected for on ownership. With Markelle Fultz down for the season, Anthony is stepping into 30 minutes a night. His game log from the past game looks weak, but with Fultz off the floor Anthony has a 23.7% usage rate and a 1.03 FPPM. This is all with a 40.8% true shooting rate, which is atrocious. Against Houston, the offensive potential is there since they give up the eighth-most real points in the league.

Honorable Mention – Any of the top end players if they play, Raul Neto would be near a lock if Westbrook sits

Shooting Guard

Paul George ($9,100 DK/$8,800 FD) – You’ll notice that I don’t have Jame Harden in the first slot. If he’s going to continue shooting the ball 14 and 17 times, it’s very hard to pay the top dollar for him. George on the other hand is the co-leader with Kawhi Leonard at a 30% usage rate and a 1.32 FPPM. PG is playing almost 34 minutes a night, which is a heavy workload. On DK, the price is a little too high for my liking. We do have blowout concerns (especially if Steph sits), but the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace which is a huge upgrade from 29th for the Clips.

Jaylen Brown ($8,700 DK/$8,000 FD) – Goodness the price is high on DK. It’s hard to argue considering the Celtics are playing the Wizards, the holy grail of DFS goodness. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and allows the most real points. It’s a fairly easy equation from there when the Celts are 22nd in pace. Brown has the slightly lower usage on the team at 28.7% but that is more than enough for this spot.

Caris LeVert ($7,400 DK/$6,800 FD) – We’ll get the lock of the slate out of the way now. I really don’t care what other news breaks today. The only way LeVert will not be in my lineups is if the Nets aren’t permitted to play due to a positive Covid test from the Sixers last night. In the two games that Kyrie and KD have been out, LeVert has 50 and 60 DK points. Even 50 would be about 7x at his DK price, which is higher. When the Nets have played like this, LeVert is at a 38.2% usage and a 1.47 FPPM. He. Is. Too. Cheap.

Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – This is only if Fox is out. When Fox went down early, the rookie stepped up and played 34 minutes. Considering he went for 17/7/6, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t draw the same responsibilities again in this game. Haliburton only has a 16.8% usage when Fox is off the floor, but the FPPM is spiked at 1.12. The Raptors and Kings play at the 10th and 11th highest pace in the league, making this a good spot for Haliburton to rack up stats again.

Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal (lock on DK if Westy is out, the FD price is a lot), Fred VanVleet

Small Forward

Joe Harris ($5,500 DK/$4,900 FD) – We normally start at the top of salary, but we’re talking Harris first. On FD (and I think even on DK), folks will rightfully chase Harris. He went bonkers yesterday, with 28 points, six boards and four dimes. He played 30 minutes and hit six triples, racking up over 40 DK in the process. Knowing that KD and Kyrie are out means there’s a ton of shots that are up for grabs. Harris is a sharpshooter that contributes in other categories, perfect for us.

Jayson Tatum ($9,200 DK/$9,400 FD) – For as much as I’d like to play Jaylen Brown, I’m always going to prefer Tatum. Get these to guys out in a pace up matchup and watch the production fly. Tatum has the FPPM lead a 1.34 and there’s really nobody on the wings that can hang with him tonight. This young man is shooting 45.1% from deep early on and the Wizards allow the fourth-highest percentage from three in the league.

Jerami Grant ($7,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – The price is slightly high but the floor is there in spades for Grant. Only once all year has he been under 30 DK, which is a little over 4x at this price. Yes, we want more than that but floor matters as well. He’s playing so many minutes right now, ninth in the league. It’s no wonder he piles up fantasy points with a 1.07 FPPM and he’s one of the prime offensive players on the Pistons. Phoenix is a good team but Grant is top player on a bad team and that works for stats.

Josh Jackson ($5,300 DK/$5,100 FD) – We’re going to double dip from Detroit because Jackson has a revenge game on tap and we know we can’t miss that. Jackson was a high pick that washed out with the Suns but has been a fantasy asset with the Pistons, sporting a 26.3% usage rate and a 1.13 FPPM. That latter number actually leads the team and his price has fallen since he’s missed a few games.

Honorable Mention – Evan Fournier (if active), Brandon Ingram, R.J. Barrett, Gordon Hayward even though I dislike chasing monster scoring games.

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,800 DK/$9,400 FD) – I simply can’t get around the price on DK but on FD, I’m still interested. Randle is sporting over 28% in usage and a 1.28 FPPM. New York (see Tom Thibodeau) is running Randle into the ground basically, since he’s playing the most minutes in the league. Minutes equal money and Randle is fourth in touches per game on top of that. The Thunder don’t have a lot of defenders down low that can handle him in my eyes, and Randle is still hard to get away from on FD if nothing else.

Aaron Gordon ($6,600 DK/$7,000 FD) – The Magic are fairly thin tonight with Michael Carter-Williams, Fultz and others out. As far as starters go, they could get Fournier back but Gordon has woken up from his early season slumber. He’s hit at least 32 DK over the past three and has yet to top 28 minutes in any of them. If he gets another 4-5 minutes tonight, there should be a threat of 40 DK. What is even more impressive is Gordon hit 32 Dk last game on just seven shot attempts. Houston is next to last in rebounds per game, and Gordon has the opportunity to hit the glass all night long.

Serge Ibaka ($5,700 DK/$5,300 FD) – I know he’s center only on DK but Ibaka just smashed this spot last game and he’s primed to do it again. The Warriors are a pace up spot, are just middle of the pack in rebounding and it’s not a surprise that Ibaka hit his season high in boards last time. Even on a team with Kawhi and PG, Ibaka will still shoot as evidenced by the 13 attempts he took last game. Golden sate is 28th in points in the paint and 29th in rebounds in the paint given up.

Honorable Mention – Giannis, Zion, Brandon Clarke

Center

Jarrett Allen ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – Allen really hung tough against Joel Embiid last night, and this is a better spot on paper. He’s 11th in paint touches on the season and Memphis is 15th in points allowed and 28th in rebounds allowed in the paint. There’s more opportunity for him in this game and the pace is quite attractive, with both teams in the top half of the league. On top of everything else, Allen is 10th in points in the paint and seventh in rebounding on the season. This is really a perfect match.

DeMarcus Cousins ($5,100 DK/$5,300 FD) – ONLY IF Christian Wood is out again, but Boogie flashed back to the glory days last game out. Well, to some extent. He put up 40 DK on just nine real points, which is ridiculous. Boogie was only 2-9 on the night but added in 14 boards and four blocks. Oh, he also only played 23 minutes. That’s basically a 2.00 FPPM mark and we’ll happily take that, even if he hangs around just 25 minutes. The price isn’t right for his role if Wood is out.

Daniel Theis ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – The news from the Celtics is that Robert Williams and Tristan Thompson are questionable under health/safety protocols. That could mean Theis is the last man standing for the most part. The only other big men on the roster are Semi Ojeleye and Tacko Fall, which says a lot. Washington not only boasts the pace we want, and is in the bottom five in points and boards allowed in the paint. Theis is nothing special at a 0.79 FPPM so far but we shouldn’t look past this potential opportunity.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Vucevic (you just will have to decide how much of the Magic you want), Thomas Bryant

DK Core

LeVert, Vuc, Theis, Tatum

FD Core

Vuc (can’t play Theis in cash on FD), LeVert, Joe Harris, Tatum

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