NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/4

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/4

We’re only a couple weeks into the season but we’re already hitting the point of injuries that can change the slate to monitor. There’s quite a few tonight that could throw this article into chaos, so I can’t stress enough to be in Discord, check the model and be around towards tip. Otherwise, you might miss out on tonight’s Jalen Brunson in the model. Let’s see where we stand for right now in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/4 and just be prepared for the updates that will likely come.

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Questionable Players

• James Harden
• Luka Doncic
• Darius Garland
• Alec Burks
• Josh Jackson
• Evan Fournier
• Kevin Huerter
• Jeff Teague
• Isaac Okoro

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$9,500 FD) – I believe just based off last night, Curry is going to get plenty of attention. As I’m writing this, Curry is at 55 DK and 45 real points. It’s the end of the third quarter. He reminded everyone why he’s one of the best and has a 1.45 FPPM with a 31.5% usage rate. The Kings are right at the top 12 of three point attempts given up per game and Curry has the ceiling that we crave and the safety that we need in cash. Even with the uneven play from Golden State, Curry is averaging a little over 33 minutes per night.

John Wall ($7,600 DK/$8,500 FD) – I like Wall a lot better on DK salary-wise tonight, but he’s in play on both sites. The usage rate of 32.9% is skewed a bit, as is the 1.34 FPPM since Wall has had a game without Harden. Why is he a cash play? Because he has played 37 minutes in both games so far, putting the Achilles injury behind him. Houston is just mid-pack in pace, but Wall playing this many minutes appears to be a mis-price on DK and a strong play on FD.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 DK/$8,000 FD) – If you can’t stomach Wall in this range, pivot to Fox. The Kings get the Warriors on a back to back game, and the Warriors are bottom-five in real points allowed. Additionally, the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the league and the Kings sit about 16th. That’s a good pace up spot for Fox, and one he should excel in. No player on the Kings has a higher usage rate than the 28.3% that Fox sports and I’ll take him in a game that could be a track meet. This game opened as the highest O/U but that is subject to change.

LaMelo Ball ($5,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – A veritable bargain on DK, Ball has already placed himself tied sixth in steals per game. Last game proved he can be an asset to a fantasy lineup without shooting well, at just 4-12 from the field. However, he played 31 minutes (a career high) and chipped in four boards, five dimes, two blocks and four steals. Ball has the second-highest assist rate on the team and is averaging the highest FPPM at 1.23. I do prefer to use him just on DK as it stands. The number three pick is forcing his way into playing time.

Markelle Fultz ($6,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – I would only use Fultz on FD because the price is getting up there for DK. Early in the year, the Magic are playing at the sixth-highest pace in the league. Fultz is basically in a tie in usage rate and FPPM with Aaron Gordon and Terrence Ross at about 26% and a 1.04 FPPM. Collin Sexton has shown strides at the defensive end of the floor, but has been at least a -9 in net rating the prior two years. I’ll bank on the track record here and side with Fultz on FD.

Elf Payton ($6,000 DK/$5,300 FD) – This is another FD play, but his price is just barely moving yet. It’s a big pace up spot for the Knicks, as the Hawks are playing at the ninth-fastest pace. Since New York is 26th, this is a really great spot for Elf in that respect. Just like Sexton, Trae Young has shown some improvements but has still been a terrible defender for two years. Atlanta cleans up the glass with the second-most boards in the league, but Payton has a shot at a double-double with points and assists. Elf and Julius Randle are tied for the usage rate lead and at a 0.98 FPPM, Elf has a great shot at 30 FD again tonight.

Jalen Brunson ($3,300 DK/$4,500 FD) – He has to be mentioned after coming off a 50 burger at 60% ownership in cash. IF and ONLY IF Luka Doncic is out, just plug and play Brunson. The field will (rightly) go back to him. He played 38 minutes and even though he won’t shoot 11-17 again, you can’t play a cash game without him. If he goes nuts again, you’re likely dead in the water.

Payton Pritchard ($3,700 DK/$3,700 FD) – Pritchard makes his first appearance, but don’t go slotting him in just yet. Jeff Teague sprained his ankle on Sunday, and appears likely to not be ready tonight. If he’s out, Pritchard is going to be the next man up by all indications. He played 28 minutes yesterday and Teague leaves behind a 19.1% usage rate and a 0.98 FPPM. I’m not sure Pritchard replicates those exact numbers, but nearly 30 potential minutes as a sixth/seventh man is interesting.

Honorable Mention – Luka (if active), Malcolm Brogdon

Shooting Guard

*Note* It goes without saying that Harden is in play for cash if he plays. Getting a team on a back to back with travel isn’t a spot on paper that defense will be a priority. He is easily the lone and best “spend up” option at the position.

Fred VanVleet ($7,700 DK/$7,900 FD) – Especially if Harden remains out, FVV would be my top target to spend on at SG. He still has room in the true shooting to improve, as he’s about 2% lower and he’s shooting under 40% from two point range for the first time in his career. He’s playing 35 minutes a night and he is chucking from deep at 10 attempts per game which is fifth in the league. Boston is not playing at a high pace, but they aren’t playing defense either with the 12th most real points allowed. FVV is always on my radar for cash.

Buddy Hield ($6,800 DK/$5,700 FD) – I don’t think the price works at all on DK, but he’s super cheap on FD. Hield is a player that I don’t love in cash unless the price is low, because he’s very scoring dependent. He’s actually just ahead of FVV in threes attempted per game and Golden State allows the sixth-highest three point field goal percentage and the highest percentage allowed from deep at 44.5% (pending last night). The other positive for Hield is he’s 10th in minutes per game with a 20% usage rate. That’s enough for FD with the positional rigidity and the salary.

Seth Curry ($5,600 DK/$5,400 FD) – With shooting guard without a lot of big names tonight, Curry checks in as an option. The fear is he’s shot 11-19 from deep in the past three games, and to say that’s unsustainable isn’t going out on a limb. On the plus side, he plays 32-34 minutes a night when the game is close. The game is fast paced as the Hornets are eighth and the Sixers are 11th and the 44.6% frequency of three’s allowed by the Hornets is second. Hield and Curry are very similar so I don’t have a super strong lean and may let the rest of the lineup decide what I can afford.

Honorable Mention – Terrance Ross (much prefer Fournier to be out), Jimmy Butler, Collin Sexton (27.5% usage without Garland)

Small Forward

Jaylen Brown ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – Brown has been flourishing in his new role as Jayson Tatum’s tag team partner. No Kemba Walker and no Gordon Hayward has put just about everything on these two and both have answered the bell. With this being a pace up spot for the Celtics, it’s hard not to like the 29% usage rate and a 1.30 FPPM, the latter which leads the team. Nobody else on this team is above a 19% usage rate and Brown’s FGA have gone up by four per game so far. If he’s getting 20 shots per game, he’s really not quite at the ceiling yet in salary.

Tobias Harris ($7,600 DK/$8,000 FD) – One thing I don’t always love doing is playing someone the game directly after a big outlier for some reason (not counting Steph scoring 62 real points, which is what he ended at). Harris had a combined seven steals and blocks last game, worth 21 of his 59.8 FD points last game. The price doesn’t lend itself to a ceiling game, but the floor shouldn’t be too low for him. I do think I’ll spend on different options tonight.

R.J. Barrett ($6,700 DK/$6,100 FD) – Barrett just does not leave the floor this season, leading the NBA in minutes per game. His rebounding and assists are both up, and he’s only shooting 24.1% from deep and just a 46.6% true shooting rate. When a player is leading in minutes and shooting relatively this poorly, I’m always going to be interested. The price is high on DK, but is a bargain on FD. A lot of the metrics don’t look exceedingly kind with a 0.85 FPPM but the pace up spot and near 40 minutes a night is about all you need.

Kelly Oubre ($5,500 DK/$5,200 FD) – I get that Oubre has been disappointing in some aspects, but he might be finding the groove a little bit. He’s hit 30 FD points in three of the last four, and plays about 30 minutes per night. The funny thing is he and Andrew Wiggins are right within 1% ins usage at 23% and 24%. Sacramento is bottom 12 in points per game allowed and the pace should be brisk in this one with both in the top half of the league. The price has gone down a little too much.

Shaddiq Bey ($3,900 DK/$4,200 FD) – Keep an eye out here. If Jackson is out, Bey could draw another start. The last time he did this, he played 30 minutes and racked up 32 DK points. Sure, he shot 5-8 from deep but just give me 30 minutes on the court and we can figure things out at this price. The line has opened at Bucks -13.5 so the starters could get a few less minutes. I would have to assume Bey would get some run regardless. It’s a very small sample, but in 20 minutes without Jackson, Bey has a 25.8% usage. That wouldn’t stick as a starter but minutes equal money.

Honorable Mention – Eric Gordon (if Harden is out, he would be one of the prime targets), De’Andre Hunter, Gordon Hayward

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,500 DK/$9,200 FD) – He let us down last game but this is a great bounce back spot for him. The Pelicans are playing very slow at 28th in pace but the Pacers are 14th, so they bring them up a bit. Another factor for Sabonis is he’s fourth in paint touches and ninth in points scored in the paint. Only Golden State lets up more points in the paint than the Pels in the early going and the duo of Steven Adams and Zion Williamson don’t scare me. I was tilted about his shot attempts last game, but I honestly think he makes it a point to shoot more and he already has a 1.31 FPPM and a 23.9% usage. He’s a threat for a triple-double every night and a bankable double-double.

Christian Wood ($7,600 DK/$9,100 FD) – My goodness has Wood justified the breakout calls early on. Wood is fourth in paint touches and shot attempts in the paint and Dallas is 23rd in points allowed in the paint. Wood is being given 36 minutes a night right now and has a 25.1% usage rate, astounding given who he’s playing with. Wendell Carte went 7/7/1 last night in 23 minutes and not being a real part of the offense. Wood is significantly underpriced on DK and still fair on FD. The 1.30 FPPM looks very appealing in this spot. Choosing 1-2 centers on DK tonight is not an easy task.

Jayson Tatum ($8,600 DK/$9,100 FD) – Tatum is cheap on both sites but the DK price is going to be tough to turn away from. He’s only sporting a 55% true shooting rate which is a bit lower than his career. Tatum now leads the team in usage rate and with Teague likely out, both Brown and Tatum likely pick up even more than normal. Pascal Siakam has been a very good defender for a while now but his rating is in the tank to start the year. Spicy P is a -16.6 in net rating which is insanely bad. That’s not likely to stick, but Siakam has not been what everyone thought he might so far. Siakam can give Tatum some issues on a few possessions but he should not scare us enough at this salary.

Aaron Gordon ($5,900 DK/$6,400 FD) – I absolutely love Gordon on DK since he’s still under $6,000 and he approached 30 minutes last game. That’s a big leap from the 20-22 that he’s been on the floor for to start the year. We mentioned earlier that Gordon is a little over 1.00 FPPM and is only at a 51.7% true shooting so far. The Magic will need him to help match the Cleveland big bodies down low and he’s simply too cheap for a player that could see his minutes continue to climb. Gordon has averaged about 33 minutes over the past three seasons.

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Marvin Bagley – We’re hoping some value pops up at this position.

Center

Joel Embiid ($9,900 DK/$9,900 FD) – When Embiid is under $10,000, he tends to catch your eye. The Sixers just played the Hornets and Biid scored 46 DK points on just 11 total shots. He leads the squad in usage at 28.2% and FPPM at 1.46. He’s flirting with his career high in minutes per game and the Hornets are 18th in rebounds per game, while Embiid is sixth in rebound chances per night. If he takes more towards the 15 shots he averages tonight, he should close in on the 60 DK point mark.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 DK/$8,300 FD) – Vucevic is a little bit of a bargain on FD, and I really like his chances for a ceiling game here. For having Andre Drummond, it’s a little surprising to see the Cavs outside the top 10 in rebounding. Vucevic gets 15 chances per night right now and they’ll need him to match Drummond. I also think he can wear out Drummond on the offensive end because Drum is going to have to chase him out towards the perimeter. This is quietly a good matchup for Vucevic They’ve faced each other a lot and Vuc has five of his last seven games against Drummond over 40 DK, a safe floor.

Clint Capela ($6,100 DK/$6,500 FD) – Neither site has caught up with the fact that Capela can play at least 30 minutes in a game right now, and DK especially is crazy low. He’s got to be happy playing in a fast-paced offense and being able to get passes from Trae Young. Capela is at a 1.27 FPPM and that’s with his free throw shooting under 20% and true shooting at 54.1%. For comparison, his FT% is 52.2% and the true shooting is 62.8% for his career. He’s not close to being right in that respect, which is only going to raise his production. Despite having Randle and Mitchell Robinson down low, the Knicks are 21st in points in the paint allowed. They’re also just 16th in rebounding, putting Capela in an elite spot.

Richaun Holmes ($5,600 DK/$6,300 FD) – He’s too much for me on FD, and I’ll just play Capela. However, on DK where I can play two centers if I want we have a fun conversation to be had. I waned to attack the Warriors with Marvin Bagley, but Holmes is actually the better fit. I referenced earlier that Golden State is giving up the most points in the paint. Holmes is tied for 10th in paint touches overall, and fifth in points in the paint per game. He’s also 13th in rebounding chances and the Warriors are 21st in boards per game. Playing right about 30 minutes per game is going to give Holmes a double-double tonight.

Honorable Mention – Drummond, Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo

DK Core

Shaddiq Bey, Steph Curry, Richaun Holmes, Clint Capela

Keep an eye out on Marcus Smart’s status. He’s questionable, and if he gets ruled out closer to lock we may need to get one of Brown or Tatum into our lineups. Also, even though this is cash focused – I have to say I LOVE Christian Wood in GPP with the chalk coming in on Holmes and Capela.

FD Core

Shaddiq Bey, Julius Randle, Buddy Hield, Steph Curry

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